NFL Week 1 Best Bets: Top Quarterback Player Prop Bets For Sunday (Sept. 13)

The NFL is back, and this week included two opening matchups featuring the Patriots vs. Seahawks and 49ers vs. Rams in Melbourne, Australia. Week 1 continues as 13 games are scheduled for Sunday. In this article, you will find quarterback player prop best bets and predictions for Sept. 13.

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Sunday's slate will feature a battle between Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals. Burrow will look to have a full healthy season while Mayfield is fresh off a three-year, $165 million contract with Tampa Bay. This matchup should feature two gunslingers with high-volume passing abilities. On Sunday, the Bengals are 3.5-point favorites on DraftKings.

In Houston, C.J. Stroud and the Texans will host Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. Allen has a 0-4 career record in Houston, but opens the season as the favorite to win the 2026-27 NFL MVP (+600). While they possess different playing styles, this matchup will headline two of the most popular quarterbacks in the NFL. On Sunday, the Bills are 1.5-point favorites on the road.

Perhaps the matchup of the day will headline Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders vs. Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles. In an NFC East divisional matchup, Daniels will look to bounce back from injury while Hurts and the Eagles failed to deliver another Super Bowl championship. This matchup is intriguing as it features two dynamic quarterbacks who can move the chains with their legs. This Sunday, the Eagles are 6-point favorites.

NFL Week 1 Player Prop Bets

Other divisional matchups include Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers vs. Kyler Murray and the Minnesota Vikings. A popular NFC North rival meeting, the Vikings are slim 1.5-point favorites at home.

Other matchups I like include Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers against the Arizona Cardinals, along with Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens against the Indianapolis Colts. In addition, former NFL No. 1 draft picks Caleb Williams of the Chicago Bears and Bryce Young of the Carolina Panthers will face off.

Finally, Sunday night football will feature an NFC divisional matchup between Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys vs. Jaxson Dart and the New York Giants.

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NFL Week 1: Betting Odds & Schedule for Sunday, Sept. 13 (DraftKings)

If you're betting on NFL Week 1, welcome!

Sunday will feature eight games starting at 1 p.m., four matchups at 4:25 p.m., and the Sunday night matchup between the Cowboys and Giants at 8:20 p.m. ET. All games can be found on NBC, CBS, and FOX.

Let's take a look at my three best quarterback player prop bets for Sunday, Sept. 13. You can find all of my bets within Fanatics and DraftKings Sportsbook.

NFL Week 1: Quarterback Player Prop Best Bets

Justin Herbert OVER 37.5 Longest Completion (-120 DraftKings)

Today, I'm locking in LA Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert to record a longest completion of 37.5 passing yards against the Arizona Cardinals.

Last year, we saw Herbert move the chains with his legs under new head coach Jim Harbaugh. Is this the year we see the most explosive version of him? The Chargers replaced former offensive coordinator Greg Roman with former Miami Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel.

McDaniel is an incredible playcaller and we are talking about a coach who led the Dolphins over 400 passing yards per game in 2023. We've seen the connection with Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle in the past.

Herbert has a plethora of talented wide receivers at his disposal: Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, and Tre' Harris. Although McConkey endured a sophomore slump, he put up 1,149 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns, and a longest reception of 60 yards in his rookie year.

In the 2025 AFC Wild Card game, we saw an 86-yard touchdown between Herbert and McConkey.

Justin Herbert Will Play Under New Offensive Coordinator Mike McDaniel

Herbert delivered 3,727 passing yards, 26 passing touchdowns, with a longest completion of 60 yards during the 2025-26 NFL season. He ranked among the top six NFL quarterbacks with eight 40-plus yard completions and completed 43 20-yard passes. Mind you, that was under Roman, a run-heavy type coach.

Herbert should improve as a signal caller under McDaniel, who is the sheer opposite of Roman. First, he's watched every single snap of Herbert's NFL career. While his offense has been described more or less "innovative" by several, what exactly does that mean?

For starters, Herbert's sack rate should improve given the fact that he was sacked 54 times last season. In addition, McDaniel's offensive scheme more or less should include explosive plays and one that plays fast. At the end of the day, McDaniel has always been aggressive on the offensive end. Remember when Tua threw for 469 passing yards and six touchdowns against the Ravens in 2022?

That's the sort of offense we could see with Herbert. Plus, Herbert has a boom-or-bust receiver in Johnston, who is a vertical down the field threat.

Now that we know all this, let's take a look at the matchup. The Kyler Murray era is over, Jacoby Brissett is the Week 1 starter, and a rebuilding Cardinals team has one of the most brutal schedules in the NFL. We are talking about a team that allowed opponents to score 28.7 points last year. Furthermore, they ranked No. 27 in defensive passing EPA according to Pro Football Reference.

NFL Week 1 Quarterback Player Prop Bet: Justin Herbert OVER 37.5 Longest Completion (-120 DraftKings)

Buddah Baker and Josh Sweat anchor the team defensively, but the Cardinals might have one of the least efficient secondaries in the NFL this season. Arizona failed to sign big defensive names in the offseason, so the Cardinals will look to sophomore cornerbacks Will Johnson and Denzel Burke to lead the way. With this, I'm not so convinced. According to PFF.com, Arizona's secondary is ranked 26 out of 32 NFL teams.

• I'm taking Justin Herbert to throw a longest completion over 37.5 yards. He last faced the Cardinals in 2024 and threw for 349 passing yards with a longest pass of 41 yards. He threw a longest completion of 50-plus yards in three of the final five games last season, and the Cardinals' defense allowed 242.8 passing yards and allowed a longest completion of 30-plus yards in 13 games last year. I do believe the best version of Herbert will be unleashed under this new offensive system and we saw him throwing bombs in preseason. 

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Jared Goff OVER 22.5 Passing Completions (-133 DraftKings)

For my second-best bet, I'm taking Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff to record over 22.5 passing completions against the New Orleans Saints.

It's hard to fade Goff here anytime the Lions have a home game inside. In his career at Ford Field, Goff has thrown for over 11,300 yards, 94 passing touchdowns, and a passer rating of 107.5. In addition, he's averaged nearly 24.3 passing completions in home games.

We are talking about a Lions team that's had chemistry for a while under head coach Dan Campbell. He's an aggressive coach who loves to convert on fourth downs. Detroit was once one of the worst teams in the NFL, now they are back on top. We are talking about a Lions offense that ranked fifth in the NFL last season under offensive coordinator John Morton, according to PFF.

With that, Detroit called pass plays 59.5% of the time compared to run plays at 40.5%. The offense should have a different tune this year as Detroit lost running back David Montgomery to the Houston Texans. Therefore, I'm expecting the Lions to move away from a dual running back threat and hand over the keys to workhorse back Jahmyr Gibbs.

Gibbs is the No. 1 fantasy pick in several leagues for a reason. Not only is he one of the fastest NFL running backs, but he's a dual threat. Even alongside Montgomery, he produced 616 receiving yards in the backfield.

Jared Goff and Detroit Lions to Finally Win the Super Bowl?

In 2025, Goff was in MVP conversations after producing 4,564 passing yards, 34 passing touchdowns and just 8 interceptions. And this season, he has a healthy and scary receiver corps that includes Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Isaac TeSlaa, Gibbs in the backfield, and tight end Sam LaPorta. That said, Goff is coming off an average of 23.1 passing completions per game in 2025-26.

In 17 games, Goff completed 68% of his passes and 393 of 578 passing attempts. In fact, Goff ranked fourth among NFL quarterbacks in attempts and second behind Dak Prescott in completions.

I'm expecting the Lions to remain as a top offensive team in the NFL. They ranked fourth in the NFL in scoring last season and added depth to the offensive line, including Cade Mays, Juice Scruggs, and Blake Miller to protect Goff. Not to mention Goff has shown zero signs of slowing down and this offense produced 28.3 points per game and 6,344 yards in 2025-26.

This Lions offense will operate under new offensive coordinator Drew Petzing who typically deploys a run-heavy offense. However, Detroit has built its core about Goff and Petzing already stated on ESPN that his system will be built around players.

NFL Week 1 Quarterback Player Prop Bet: Jared Goff OVER 22.5 Passing Completions (-133 DraftKings)

Goff gets a Saints team that ranked top 10 in defense last year. Despite ranking No. 9 in defensive DVOA, New Orleans ranked No. 19 in pass defense DVOA. Sure, the Saints have Kool-Aid McKinstry, Kaden Ellis, and Chase Young. However, Cameron Jordan has been ruled out for Week 1, and the Saints allowed a good amount of pocket time to quarterbacks last season.

• In 2025-26, New Orleans allowed a quarterback completion average of 68.6% along with a 51% success rate. While there's a new OC in town, it's hard to believe this Lions offense will look drastically different outside of Montgomery's departure. Perhaps the Lions lean on a dual tight-end set with LaPorta and Brock Wright, leaving more passing options. Dating back to last season, Goff soared over this line in three of the final five games of the season, averaging 25.8 completions over that span. It's hard to fade Goff Week 1 at home today. In addition, he threw for 300-plus yards in three of the final five games last year. 

Joe Burrow OVER 24.5 Passing Completions (-115 Fanatics)

For my last player prop, I locked in Cincinnati Bengals Joe Burrow to record over 24.5 passing completions against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

It's no secret that Burrow missed nine games last season with turf toe. Injuries have not been kind to Joey B, but he's back and healthy this season. That includes receivers Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.

In eight games last year, Burrow produced 1,809 yards, 173 completions, 17 touchdowns, and a 68.8% completion rate. Despite limited games, he recorded an average of 21.6 completions per game. In his NFL career, Burrow has averaged 25.0 passing completions per game, and we saw him put up a career high 27.1 completions in 2024. If Burrow can stay healthy, I do think this line is a tad low.

Burrow will face Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers, and the books are predicting a shootout as the over/under total is set for 50.5 points. If that's the case, I'm expecting a ton of created looks from the Bengals.

Dan Pitcher remains the offensive coordinator, so I don't expect this line to look vastly different. The biggest question remains whether the offensive line can hold up and protect Burrow.

I am expecting the Bengals to utilize Chase Brown more, but even so, he's a versatile running back who possesses speed and can be a threat in the backfield with his catching abilities. Last season, we saw Brown produce a breakout year with 1,019 rushing yards and 437 receiving yards. I'm only expecting those numbers to increase.

While the running game should be a focal part of the offense, we are talking about a Bengals team that threw for 66% of plays compared to rushing for 34%. That said, Pitcher deploys a West Coast offense and we should see Burrow operate out of the shotgun quite a bit, especially if that offensive line can't hold up. In addition, we should see Burrow utilize empty sets with rookie receiver Colbie Young and Andrei Iosivas.

NFL Week 1 Quarterback Player Prop Bet: Joe Burrow OVER 24.5 Passing Completions (-115 Fanatics)

Overall, the Buccaneers aren't completely terrible defensively, but this is a Tampa Bay team that allowed 33.4 passing attempts and 22.3 passing completions to quarterbacks last season. Antoine Winfield Jr. bounced back and Jacob Parrish will continue cornerback duties. When it comes to Tampa Bay, it's all about health.

• I'm taking Joe Burrow to record over 24.5 passing completions today. There should be plenty of passing volume against the Bucs and Tampa Bay gave up over 4,300 passing yards last season. Part of this offense includes Burrow getting the ball out quickly against a defense that blitzed 29.6% last year, the third-highest percentage in the NFL. Dating back to last season, Burrow crushed this line in four of the final five games and  averaged 36.5 passing attempts. In addition, we saw quarterbacks clear this prop line in five of the final seven games against Tampa Bay. If Burrow throws for 36-plus pass attempts, I'm very confident in this player prop bet.