NFL Best Bets Week 12: 3 Best NFL Picks & Predictions For Sunday, November 23

NFL Sunday, week 12 has arrived, so let's look at the top player prop picks and bets for today!

(Photo by Matthew J. Lee/The Boston Globe via Getty Images)

As the NFL season progresses, the stakes remain high among several teams fighting for playoff spots. With 12 games on the slate Sunday, there's plenty of betting opportunities!

As mentioned in my previous touchdown scorer article, there are several key week 12 NFL matchups!

Although Aaron Rodgers is questionable to play, the Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4, 2-2 away) will face the Chicago Bears (7-3, 3-1 home). Slim 2.5-point favorites at home, the Bears get the Steelers for the first time since 2021!

While Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs (5-5, 4-1 home) have run the AFC for years, there's a new guy in town! Step aside, Mahomes, Daniel Jones, and the Indianapolis Colts (8-2, 2-2 away) are in town. While the Chiefs are 2.5-point spread favorites at home, it's the first time these AFC squads have matched up since 2022!

NFL Week 12 Best Bets

It's not often we've seen the Minnesota Vikings (4-6, 3-2) fall wayside in the NFC North, but they get a shot at the Green Bay Packers (6-3-1, 3-2 home) at Lambeau Field. Riding a two-game losing streak, Minnesota faces a Green Bay team that came away with a narrow victory over the New York Giants last week. Sunday, Jordan Love and company are 6.5-point spread favorites.

Sunday will finish with two division matchups featuring the Atlanta Falcons (3-7, 1-4 away) vs. New Orleans Saints (2-8, 1-4 home), and Philadelphia Eagles (8-2, 4-1 away) and the Dallas Cowboys (4-5, 2-1-1- home). With Michael Penix Jr. out for the season, Kirk Cousins will resume duties for Atlanta, and New Orleans is 7-2 against the Falcons in their last 10 head-to-head matchups. Tonight's matchup featuring the Eagles and Cowboys should be pure cinema.

Let's take a look at the week 12 odds, which include my three best bets, player prop picks, and predictions for the Sunday, November 23, NFL matchups! All of my bets have been placed as separate picks within Fanatics and FanDuel Sportsbook.

Week 12 NFL Schedule and FanDuel Odds for November 23

Week 12 Best Bets #1: Drake Maye

• 250+ Passing Yards (-125 Fanatics)

My first-best bet for Sunday, I placed one unit on New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye to record over 250+ passing yards against the Cincinnati Bengals.

I'm all in on Maye, who's the second favorite (+150) among sportsbooks to win the 2025-2026 NFL MVP award behind Matt Stafford.  Should I start with the fact that he leads all NFL quarterbacks with 2,836 passing yards? With 20 touchdowns and five interceptions, Maye has taken a significant leap in his second season under head coach Mike Vrabel.

Boasting a 71.9 completion percentage, Maye should soar over this player prop bet on Sunday. He's impressively thrown for 200+ passing yards in all 11 games this season, and has cleared the 250 line in four straight weeks and eight games overall.

Even with a running back committee consisting of TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson, this is a Patriots team that calls pass plays 60.6 % of the time. A large reason for New England's success is that Maye has thrown for over 550 yards alone over the last two games! In fact, he's cleared this prop line against a stingy Browns defense, Falcons, Buccaneers, and Jets.

Not only was acquiring Stefon Diggs a S-tier move, Patriots wideout Kayshon Boutte has taken a gigantic leap in his third season (when healthy). While tight end Hunter Henry has been a staple for years, New England has a boost now that Austin Hooper is healthy and active for Sunday's matchup.

Is Drake Maye The 2025-2026 NFL MVP?

This is truly a matchup made in heaven for Maye and the Patriots, who boast the fourth-best passing DVOA in the NFL.  Now they face a Bengals team that's been dreadful on the defensive end, and will continue to be without Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase (suspension).

I call it how I see it—the Bengals rank dead last in defensive DVOA and passing DVOA.  We are talking about a Cincinnati team that gives up over 264 passing yards per game to quarterbacks, which is good for the third-most in the NFL.

Given the Patriots are favored by 7.5 points, I'm expecting a ton of offense today.  Plus, not only is Trey Hendrickson out for today's meeting, but Cam Taylor-Britt remains on IR. That leaves a thin defensive end group that will also be without Cam Sample.

Overall, Maye has been lights out, recording 1,092 passing yards over the last four games. Although yet to face the Bengals, Maye will face a team that mainly runs a 4-3 defense. This season, we are talking about a quarterback that's thrown for over 400 yards against this specific defensive scheme.

This year, Maye is averaging an average target depth of 9.5 yards, and should have a field day against a porous Bengals defense that allowed quarterbacks to soar over this player prop line in seven games this season. This year, we've seen the following quarterbacks torch the Bengals' secondary:

• Caleb Williams, Bears (280 passing yards)
• Aaron Rodgers, Steelers (249 passing yards)
• Jordan Love, Packers (259 passing yards)
• Jared Goff, Lions (258 passing yards)
• Bo Nix, Broncos (326 passing yards)
• Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars (271 passing yards)
• Joe Flacco, former Brown (290 passing yards)

Final NFL Week 12 Best Bet & Prediction: Drake Maye 250+ Passing Yards (-125 Fanatics)

• I'm taking Drake Maye to record over 250+ passing yards on Sunday. The Patriots rank No. 7 in offensive EPA per play, and the Bengals rank dead last in defensive success rate. Plus, Maye should have plenty of time in the pocket, as Cincinnati additionally ranks last in dropback EPA.

Week 12 Best Bets #2: DJ Moore

• OVER 2.5 Receptions (-142 FanDuel)

My second-best bet for today, I placed one unit on Chicago Bears receiver DJ Moore to record over 2.5 receptions.

I know I've been burned betting on Moore in the past, but I couldn't pass up this line. Although juiced at -142 odds, you can still find value in this player prop.

There's no doubt Moore has taken a back seat to Rome Odunze, who's emerged as the Bears' No. 1 wide receiver for Caleb Williams. It's true, Moore ranks second on the team in targets (51), receiving yards (421), and has just one lone touchdown on the season.

It's no secret that newly signed head coach Ben Johnson has transformed this offense, which ranks No. 13 in passing DVOA. We are talking about a Bears team that puts up the fourth-most yards per game (373.8)!

Is DJ Moore Still Relevant In Chicago?

Moore has been almost nonexistent in Johnson's plan, recording just 18 yards on one reception over the last two weeks against the Giants and Vikings. Today is a perfect spot to bounce back.

The numbers don't quite add up. Given Moore played a team-high 81 % of snaps in week 11, he's lined up for 80-90 percent of snaps this season. We have to look at the fact that Caleb Williams has several options to throw to. That includes Cole Kmet, Colston Loveland, and Luther Burden III.

Aside from the previous two games, Moore has recorded over 2.5 receptions in eight straight games. Now he faces a Steelers defense that allows the most yards to receivers (186) in the NFL! Yes, you read that correctly: the Steelers allow the 32nd-most yards to wide receivers.

Final NFL Week 12 Best Bet & Prediction: DJ Moore Over 2.5 Receptions (-142 FanDuel)

If we break it down, they haven't been forgiving to WR1s, and Moore is likely to get a matchup with Darius Slay over Joey Porter Jr. While it's evident the Bears haven't needed Moore over their last two wins, that may change today.

• I'm taking DJ Moore to record over 2.5 receptions today. Last time he faced the Steelers, he put up 73 receiving yards on five receptions. This is for sure a favorable matchup in the Steel City for Moore. 

Week 12 Best Bets #3: Jaxon Smith-Njigba

• OVER 96.5 Receiving Yards (-112 FanDuel)

My third-best bet, I placed one unit on Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba to record over 96.5 receiving yards.

Smith-Njigba is an offensive player of the year candidate, and is the FIRST player in NFL history to put up 75+ receiving yards over the first 10 games of the season.

What I'm saying is that Smith-Njigba is special and is quickly emerging as one of the most elite wide receivers in the NFL.  Sure, 96.5 receiving yards is a high total, but here's why I like it.

With the departure of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, Smith-Njigba has taken over as Sam Darnold's top receiver in the Emerald City. With that, he's posted 1,146 receiving yards, 75 receptions, and five touchdowns so far this season. Topping all receivers in yards, I would say he has a great chance of keeping it rolling on Sunday.

Is Jaxon Smith-Njigba The Best Receiver in the NFL?

Not only does Smith-Njigba have 27 targets and 22 receptions over the last three games, but he's also eclipsed 100+ receiving yards in four of the last five outings! 132, 162, 123, 129, and 105 receiving yards against the Buccaneers, Jaguars, Texans, Commanders, and Rams.

Elite defenses or not, Smith-Njigba is lighting up teams left and right. Hauling in a whopping 37 % of team targets, he's averaging 118.4 air yards per game! With a nil drop rate, how can I fade him today?

This might be his best matchup of the year, given the Titans rank No. 25 in defensive DVOA and allow the second-most receiving yards to wideouts. We just saw Nico Collins light up the secondary for 92 yards, and Davante Adams exploded for 106 with the Rams.

Let's face it— the Titans are 1-9 and they have a banged-up secondary. Not only is Xavier Woods out for this matchup, but Darrell Baker Jr. is questionable.

Final NFL Week 12 Best Bet & Prediction: Jaxon Smith-Njigba OVER 96.5 Receiving Yards (-112 FanDuel)

It's rare, I bet on a player with a line this massive.  However, it's game over if he's matched up with Jalyn Armour-Davis. We are talking about a receiver who's having a historic season. In fact, he's broken 100+ yards in seven of the last 10 games.

• I'm taking Jaxon Smith-Njigba to record over 96.5 receiving yards. Even with the addition of Rashid Shaheed, Smith-Njigba has cleared this line in ALL but three games this season! Look for him to continue his dominance against a weak and vulnerable Titans defense.