NFL Best Bets Week 16: 3 Best NFL Picks & Predictions For Sunday, December 21

NFL week 16 is here, and this article will focus on the best bets and predictions for the 4 p.m. ET matchups!

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It's been an exciting week in the NFL. First, the Seattle Seahawks defeated the Los Angeles Rams in overtime on Thursday night. With two games on Saturday,  Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears did the improbable: Tying the game with 24 seconds remaining, it was DJ Moore who caught the overtime touchdown to seal the victory for Chicago.

There are four late afternoon matchups featuring several teams vying for a playoff spot. With three weeks left remaining in the NFL season, the stakes are high for several of these squads!

The 4:05 p.m. ET matchup will feature the Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4, 4-2 away) and the Denver Broncos (12-2, 7-0 home). Featuring two top teams in the AFC, the Broncos are the top dogs as the No.1, and Trevor Lawrence and company sit as the No.3. Seed. 3.5-point spread favorites at home, the Broncos can clinch both the AFC West and the AFC with a victory.

They can do so with a Patriots loss, Bills loss or tie, or Chargers loss or tie.

Week 16 NFL Key Matchups

Next up features the Atlanta Falcons (5-9, 3-5 away) and the Arizona Cardinals (3-11, 1-6 home). Both teams have been eliminated, but do certain players have something to prove? Kirk Cousins remains the Falcons' starting quarterback, while Jacoby Brissett continues to fill in for the injured Kyler Murray. 6-4 against Arizona since 2009, the Falcons are favored by 2.5 points on the road.

Perhaps the 4:25 matchup for Sunday will highlight Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6, 3-3 away) and Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions (8-6, 5-2 home). This is a highly-anticipated matchup ahead given that both squads are in the playoff hunt or on the bubble.  Seven-point favorites at home, the Steelers have a 77 % chance to make the playoffs with a win. According to the NFL, the Lions have a 5 % chance to make the playoffs with a loss.

With kick off scheduled for 4:25 p.m. ET, the Las Vegas Raiders (2-12, 1-6 away) will square off against C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans (9-5, 5-2 home). While the Raiders have been eliminated from playoff contention, the Texans will look to secure the last spot in the AFC playoff bracket. On Sunday, Houston is a 14.5-point spread favorite at home.

In this article, I will focus on my three best bets, player prop picks, and predictions for the Dec. 21 NFL week 16 matchups. My bets for Sunday include popular player prop bets for Bijan Robinson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Nico Collins. I've played all of my bets as separate picks within FanDuel and Fanatics Sportsbook.

Are you in search of further NFL and sports betting promotions? We have compiled a list of the best sports betting offers here. 

Week 16 NFL Schedule and FanDuel Odds for December 21 (4 PM Matchups)

Week 16 Best Bets #1: Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions)

• 80+ Receiving Yards (-135 Fanatics)

My first best bet for Sunday, I placed one unit on Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown to record 80+ receiving yards against the Steelers.

This may be a popular corporate pick, but I simply can't fade this pick.  Today is a must-win for the Lions, who have only a 39 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to the NFL. With a high-stakes matchup ahead,  it's do-or-die for the Lions.

We already know St. Brown is one of the best receivers in the league, ranking fifth among NFL wideouts in receiving yards (1,140). Boasting a target share north of 31 percent, St. Brown is an elite receiver who ranks in the top five in YAC (463). Jared Goff's top option in the pass game, St. Brown leads the Lions in receptions (94), targets (135), receiving yards (1,140), and touchdowns (11). If anyone can pull through tonight, it's No. 14.

Why Amon-Ra St.Brown Can Torch The Steelers' Secondary

St. Brown and the Detroit Lions will face a Steelers team that continues to fight for a top playoff spot. Ranking No. 12 in defensive DVOA, Pittsburgh is just outside the top 10 in defensive pass DVOA.

Sportsbooks have this game total set at 51.5, the highest of any matchup this week, so I'm expecting a possible shootout in Detroit. Not only is this matchup indoors, but the Lions rank No.3 in offensive DVOA.

Sure, this player prop line may seem steep at 80 yards; however, we have to look at how St.Brown has performed as of late. Back in action after getting injured on Thanksgiving, he's recorded 164, 92, and 149 receiving yards against the Rams, Cowboys, and Giants over the last four weeks.

Clearing this prop in three of the last four games, the wide receiver is coming off 13 receptions on 18 targets alone last week against the Rams! Over this span of four weeks, he's tallied 405 receiving yards, 41 targets, and 28 receptions. Remember, one of those weeks he was injured against the Packers.

Final NFL Week 16 Best Bet & Prediction: Amon-Ra St. Brown 80+ Receiving Yards (-135 Fanatics)

Likely lined up in the slot with Brandin Echols, St.Brown has an excellent matchup against a Steelers squad that allows the fifth-most receiving yards to wideouts. The Lions may have caught a break with T.J. Watt and James Pierre out for Pittsburgh on the defensive side.

• I'm taking Amon-Ra St. Brown to record over 80+ receiving yards on Sunday. Fantasy football playoffs are among us, and he's a WR1 for several owners. This season, we've seen Zay Flowers (124 receiving yards), Ja'Marr Chase (161 receiving yards), and Michael Pittman Jr. (115 receiving yards) torch the Steelers' secondary. 

Week 16 Best Bets #2: Bijan Robinson (Falcons)

• 90+ Rushing Yards (-125 Fanatics)

My second-best bet for Sunday, I placed one unit on Falcons running back Bijan Robinson to record 90+ rushing yards against the Cardinals.

Both the Falcons and Cardinals have been eliminated from the playoffs, but Robinson is heavily relied on in fantasy football.

Fourth among NFL running backs with 1,174 receiving yards, Robinson is the clear No.1 workhorse back for Atlanta. With Michael Penix Jr. out for the season and Kirk Cousins at the helm, I expect Atlanta to continue to commit to the run game.

Why Bijan Robinson Can Clear This Player Prop

We saw Robinson rush for 93 yards on 19 carries against the Buccaneers last week, and even recorded 86 rushing yards on 20 carries against an elite Seahawks defense.

Considered one of the strongest backs in the NFL, Robinson has rushed for 90+ yards in three of the last five games. Over that span, he's averaging 99 rushing yards per game, along with 19.8 carries.

His volume is high, and Robinson erupted for 104 and 142 yards on the ground against the Panthers and Jets. Tyler Allgeier MAY see some looks today; however, he rushed for just 18 yards on two carries last week.

Fourth among NFL backs in total rushes (234), Robinson is averaging 842 yards after contact. Now he gets a Cardinals defense that's been horrendous on the other side of the ball. Ranking No. 20 in defensive DVOA, Arizona ranks No. 25 in defensive rush DVOA, and 124.5 rushing yards per game.

Final NFL Week 16 Best Bet & Prediction: Bijan Robinson 90+ Rushing Yards (-125 Fanatics)

It may be a Bijan day, considering linebacker Cody Simon is questionable to lace up. If not, the position is already thin, given Mack Wilson Sr. and JJ Russell have been placed on IR.

• I'm taking Bijan Robinson to record 90+ rushing yards on Sunday. He has a great matchup against a Cardinals' team that allows the fifth-most rushing yards to running backs. Ranking No. 22 in rush EPA, Blake Corum(Rams) most recently erupted for 128 yards on the ground against Arizona. In addition, Jonathan Taylor compiled 123 rushing yards against the Cardinals. 

Week 16 Best Bets #3: Nico Collins (Texans)

• OVER 66.5 Receiving Yards (-112 Fanatics)

My third-best bet for Sunday, I placed one unit on Texans wide receiver Nico Collins to record over 66.5 receiving yards.

Today is a must-win for the Texans, who hold the final and No. 7 spot in the AFC. According to the NFL, they have a 98 % chance of making the playoffs if they win on Sunday.

Overall, the Texans' offense hasn't been overly potent; however, they dropped 40 points on the Cardinals last week.

I do think the books are sleeping on this line, especially since Collins has soared over this player prop line in four of the last five games. Averaging 90.2 receiving yards over that span, we've seen him torch the Titans (92), Colts (98), Chiefs (121), and Cardinals (85).

While health hasn't always been on his side, Collins is C.J. Stroud's top target for a reason. Compiling over 300 receiving yards over the last three weeks, Collins has 22 targets and 12 receptions over that span alone.

With Christian Kirk questionable, Tank Dell out, and Justin Watson placed on the IR, Collins and Jayden Higgins should be heavily involved in the passing game today. ESPECIALLY since Woody Marks and Nick Chubb (running backs) are both questionable to play.

Final NFL Week 16 Best Bet & Prediction: Nico Collins OVER 66.5 Receiving Yards (-112 Fanatics)

Overall, the Raiders miss the playoffs and rank No. 22 in defensive pass DVOA. Having given up the ninth-most receiving yards to wideouts, this is a prime spot for Collins.

• I'm taking Nico Collins to record over 66.5 receiving yards on Sunday. We saw George Pickens (144 yards) torch the Raiders for 144 yards, along with several others. I'm confident in this bet, given that Collins hauls in 23.3 % of team targets and is averaging 99.6 air yards per game