NFL Wild Card Best Bets For Monday (January 12): Texans vs Steelers Betting Odds & Player Prop Bets

NFL Wild Card Weekend is coming to a close, and Monday night will feature an AFC matchup between the Texans and Steelers!

(Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)

NFL Wild Card Weekend was off the charts, as the Rams, Bears, Bills, and 49ers escaped with narrow victories.

C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans (12-5, 5-3 away) will square off against Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7, 6-3 home). Favored by three points, the books have the Texans to advance on the road tonight.

A classic No. 5 vs. No. 4 seed, the winner of Monday's matchup will advance and face the New England Patriots in the AFC Divisional round. Both the Texans (+550) and Steelers (+1400) are considered long shots by oddsmakers to win the AFC Championship, let alone the Super Bowl.

Speaking of Super Bowl LX, the Texans (+2000) and Steelers (+4000) have some of the highest odds to raise the Lombardi Trophy.

AFC Wild Card: Houston Texans vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Overall, the Texans finished out the regular NFL season strong, winning nine straight games. Similarly, the Steelers finished with a 4-1 record down the stretch and were crowned AFC North Champions after a 26-24 thriller over the Baltimore Ravens.

With the over/under set at 38.5 points, the books are predicting a low-scoring affair. After all, tonight is a showdown between two elite defenses. The battle of the head coaches: Mike Tomlin vs. DeMeco Ryans—who will advance tonight?

According to ESPN, the Texans have a 55.4% chance of winning outright tonight, and last defeated the Steelers 30-6 in October 2023. The Steelers not only have T.J. Watt back in the lineup, but wide receiver DK Metcalf will return from suspension. Is a healthy lineup at home enough to cause an upset? After all, they have a 3-1 record all-time against Houston in Pittsburgh.

The Steelers have lost six consecutive playoff losses under Tomlin, while the Texans have suffered two straight AFC Divisional matchups against the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens. The Texans are searching for their first playoff victory on the road, while the Steelers are a perfect 23-0 at home on Monday Night Football. Hold on to your seats; this should be a good one.

Odds Are Current As Of January 12 at 11 A.M. ET

If you're looking to bet on tonight's NFL Wild Card matchup, welcome!

Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh. Set to be broadcast on ESPN/ABC, the weather forecast predicts 20 mph winds and low temperatures (30s) at game time.

On Sunday, I went a perfect 3-0 in my anytime touchdown scorer article, and I am up over 36 units betting on sports in January. If you wish to track my bets, they can be found on the Ballislife.com website, Ballislife Discord, and the Pikkit App (@SaraJaneGamelli).

With the NFL playoffs in full swing, it all comes down to two teams competing to advance to the AFC Divisional Round. Let's take a look at my three best bets, player prop picks, and predictions for the Jan. 12 Monday night matchup featuring the Texans and Steelers.

I've included player prop bets for Ka'imi Fairbairn, Jaylen Warren, and the Texans' team total points. You can find all my best bets within Fanatics and DraftKings Sportsbook.

Are you in search of further NFL and sports betting promotions? We have compiled a list of the best sports betting offers here. 

NFL Wild Card Bets: Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers FanDuel Odds For January 12

MONEYLINE

• HOUSTON TEXANS: -162
• PITTSBURGH STEELERS: +136

SPREAD

• HOUSTON TEXANS: -3 (-105)
• PITTSBURGH STEELERS: +3 (-115)

OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)

• OVER: 38.5 (-105)
• UNDER: 38.5 (-115)

BEST ODDS FOR HOUSTON TEXANS VS PITTSBURGH STEELERS

• BetMGM has the best odds, favoring the Houston Texans by three points (+100)
• The Pittsburgh Steelers will get a home game for NFL Wild Card Weekend.  BetMGM offers the best odds at -110, tabbing the Steelers as three-point underdogs.
• BetMGM and DraftKings currently offer the best odds for the game totals. DraftKings offers the best value for the under (38.5) at -115, while BetMGM offers the best value for the over (38) at -110 odds.

Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers Injury Report

TEXANS

1. Davis Mills, QB: QUESTIONABLE
2. Jimmie Ward, FS: OUT
3. Jawhar Jordan, RB: OUT
4. Kurt Hinish, DT: OUT
5. Tank Dell, WR: OUT

STEELERS

1. Cory Trice Jr., IR
2. Skylar Thompson, QB: IR
3. Darnell Washington, TE: IR
4. Dean Lowry, DE: IR
5. Broderick Jones, LT: IR

NFL Predictions for Monday, January 12, Wild Card: Texans vs Steelers

Texans vs Steelers Bets

• Ka'imi Fairbairn OVER 7.5 Kicking Points
• Jaylen Warren OVER 65.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
• Houston Texans OVER 19.5 Team Total Points

NFL Wild Card Player Prop Bets Today: Ka'imi Fairbairn

• OVER 7.5 Kicking Points (-130 Fanatics)

My first best bet for Monday night, I placed one unit on Texans' kicker Ka'imi Fairbairn to record over 7.5 kicking points.

I've tailed this player prop prior, and I'm not fading this today. Fairbairn is considered one of the best kickers in the NFL, leading the league with 44 regular-season made field goals. Cracking just outside the top 10 in field goal percentage (91.7%), he's a fairly accurate kicker. Aside from four missed 50+ yard field goals, Fairbairn's been automatic.

Fairbairn and the Texans will face a stingy Steelers defense ranked No. 11 in defensive DVOA. That said, they rank No. 12 in defensive passing DVOA and No. 8 in defensive rush DVOA. T.J. Watt is back in action, and so is this defense.

The Steelers allowed 22.8 points per game in the regular NFL season, so in this case, special teams may be busy tonight.

In Week 18's 38-30 victory over the Indianapolis Colts, it was Fairbairn who saved the day with 20 kicking points. Kicking 6/6 (100%) field goals, his longest made was a 51-yarder. 2/2 in extra points made, Fairbairn's two 40+ field goals in the fourth quarter propelled the Texans to victory.

Is Ka'imi Fairbairn The X-Factor on Monday Night?

Now, winds are predicted at 20 mph in Pittsburgh, and that may play a factor tonight. Cold weather? No problem. Fairbairn is 100% with temperatures under 40 degrees this season, hitting the longest kick of 35 yards. Fairbairn did struggle with some longer kicks a few seasons ago, as the Texans play down south. The biggest factor tonight is the weather.

Yet to kick a 40+ yard field goal in under 40-degree temps this season is a bit worrisome, but let's look at the statistics. Overall, Fairbairn has cleared this line in all but two games this season.

The books are favoring the Texans by a slim 3-point spread margin, meaning this matchup could all come down to one field goal. One area where Fairbairn thrives is in the fourth quarter.  In the final 15 minutes, Fairbairn has recorded 18 points, kicking 100% of field goals.

I do think 7.5 is set too low, given that Fairbairn has recorded 55 points (13.7 avg.) over the last four games. With that, he's averaged 10.7 kicking points, accumulating 160 points through 15 regular-season NFL games.

We saw Fairbairn kick a 35-yard field goal in cold Kansas City temperatures.

Final Texans vs Steelers NFL betting prediction: Ka'imi Fairbairn Over 7.5 Kicking Points (-130 Fanatics)

Overall, the Steelers have allowed 32 field goals in 2025, and Tyler Loop and the Ravens walked away with six kicking points last week. Of course, it was Loop that missed the go-ahead 44-yard field goal in the fourth quarter.

• I'm taking Ka'imi Fairbairn to record over 7.5 kicking points on Monday night. He last recorded 12 points against the Steelers in October 2023, and he averaged 10.7 total points this season. With 44 field goals and 28 extra point attempts made, Fairbairn should be heavily involved in what is predicted to be a low-scoring affair. 

NFL Wild Card Player Prop Bets Today: Jaylen Warren

• OVER 65.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-125 Fanatics)

My second-best bet for tonight, I placed one unit on Steelers running back Jaylen Warren to record over 65.5 rushing and receiving yards.

I have a feeling this will result in an ugly, low-scoring affair. Although the Steelers barely scraped by the Ravens, thanks to Tyler Loop, they've often won games in ugly fashion. I don't expect less tonight. The real test is against this elite Texans defense, which ranks No. 2 in defensive DVOA.

In reality, Houston ranks among the top two teams against the pass and the rush. From an elite defensive line that includes Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter—Houston's defense is stacked.  Not to mention, Jalen Pitre and Derek Stingley Jr., Calen Bullock, and Kamari Lassiter in the secondary.

Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers isn't new to football and has played plenty of playoff football against elite defenses in cold weather. In fact, he's thrown for 635 yards, completing 64-of-95 passing attempts and three touchdowns in under 40 degrees this season. After playing all those years in Green Bay, the weather isn't a factor.

The issue is that Rodgers has been atrocious against top 10 pass defenses this season. Completing just 59.2% of passes, Rodgers has thrown for 1,302 yards for eight touchdowns and five interceptions. Completing 126 of 213 pass attempts, he averaged a 2.3 interception percentage.

While he's yet to face this scary Houston defense this season, he did throw for 211 yards and three touchdowns against Houston in 2024 as a member of the Jets.

Why Jaylen Warren Can Clear This Player Prop

Getting back to Warren, he led the Steelers in the regular season with 958 rushing yards and six touchdowns. The third-best receiving option for Rodgers, he totaled 486 receiving yards with four touchdowns. While the Texans don't blitz much (18.2%), I'm expecting Rodgers and Tomlin to utilize Warren in every way. That includes the short game with Warren.

A threat on the ground and through the air, we know the Texans are going to bring their best defensively. While it seems Tomlin is committed to both Warren and Kenneth Gainwell, Warren led with 56% of snaps last week. Recording back-to-back 60+ rushing performances, he delivered his best outing of the season with 143 rushing yards against Detroit three weeks ago.

It's clear the Steelers lack star receivers outside of Metcalf and have proven they can win games with a dual-threat running back committee. Although Warren's receiving stats have been volatile, Gainwell may bite into that.

This is going to be a tall task—the Texans allow the fourth-fewest rushing yards to running backs. However, there's optimism: They are middle-of-the-road, having allowed over 30 receiving yards to backs this season.

Warren has been effective, recording 172 yards, averaging 10.1 yards per catch against top 10 pass defenses this season. Equally effective in man or zone coverage, again, I believe both Warren and Gainwell will be utilized heavily in the short pass game tonight.

Final Texans vs Steelers NFL betting prediction: Jaylen Warren Over 65.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-125 Fanatics)

If the Steelers are to win this game, I expect Warren to play a critical role. With heavy wind gusts expected, it may be a short-gain, run-heavy game for the Steelers. This season, Ashton Jeanty (188), Jonathan Taylor (121), James Cook (129), Travis Etienne Jr. (77), Christian McCaffrey (68), and Tony Pollard (76) all cleared this rushing and receiving prop line. While Houston is elite, they aren't perfect. Although I will say, they held Taylor to 39 R+R yards last week.

• I'm taking Jaylen Warren to record over 65.5 rushing and receiving yards tonight. Clearing this line in two of the last three games, he compiled 151 and 99 rushing and receiving yards against the Lions and Ravens. Averaging 91 rushing yards, 13.3 touches, and 2.3 targets over the last three games, Warren put up 429 yards after the catch. Targeted over 21% on routes, he boasts a 21.3 broken tackle percentage. Is it enough to overcome Houston?

NFL Wild Card Player Prop Bets Today: Houston Texans

• OVER 19.5 Team Total Points (-135 DraftKings)

My third-best bet for Monday, I placed one unit on the Houston Texans to record over 19.5 team total points.

To be fair, I didn't want to touch the spread or the total for this game. The public is favoring the Texans, so why not go with the team points?

I wouldn't exactly call the Texans an offensive powerhouse. While Stroud hasn't quite lived up to his rookie season, Houston has dealt with injuries all season. It wasn't until halfway through the season that we learned running back Joe Mixon wouldn't play. The Texans have now formed a running back committee that includes Woody Marks and Nick Chubb.

Will The Texans Get Its First Playoff Victory on the Road?

Given that the Steelers allow over 22 points per game, I'm expecting at least 7-9 points to come from the special teams and field goals alone. While the Steelers have a solid defense, they've proven porous. Giving up 24 points to the Ravens last week, they've allowed opponents to score over 20+ points in seven of the last 10 games. Furthermore, opponents averaged just north of 22 points over the final seven games of the season.

Overall, this is a Texans team that averaged 23.8 points per game and 327 total yards per game. The run game isn't strong, having averaged just 108.9 rushing yards per game and 1,852 on the season. Houston has mainly thrived defensively and through the passing game.  Averaging 218.1 passing yards per game, this matchup may be held in the hands of Stroud and the defense.

Final Texans vs Steelers NFL betting prediction: Houston Texans Team Total OVER 19.5 Points (-135 DraftKings)

Houston made a statement with 38 points against the Colts last week. Over their nine-game win streak, they've cleared 20+ points in all but one, averaging 26.2 points per game over that span.

Let's face it– we've seen the Texans put up 20 points against a stingy Chargers' defense. In addition, they've scored 23 points against the Bills and 19 against a top Seahawks team.

• I'm taking the Houston Texans to record over 19.5 points tonight. While I see them covering this total, I don't envision Houston scoring a high amount of points.