Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves: betting odds and predictions for May 16

To nobody's surprise, a series between two of the three best teams by record this season has proven to be a highly-contentious affair with many twists and turns.

(Photo by David Berding/Getty Images)

To the surprise of a few, though, the Timberwolves have taken a 2-0 lead in proceedings and fumbled it away, returning home to Minnesota facing elimination after three straight victories by the Nuggets.

Is there any hope to be found here with the Timberwolves, who enter this one as the favorites, or are the numbers over the last few games too damning?

Let's get into the best way to bet on Nuggets vs. Timberwolves on Thursday, May 16.

DENVER NUGGETS VS. MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES FANDUEL ODDS FOR MAY 16

MONEY LINE

• DENVER NUGGETS: +108
• MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES: -126

SPREAD

• DENVER NUGGETS: +2 (-106)
• MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES: -2 (-114)

OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)

• OVER 205.5 (-112)
• UNDER 205.5 (-108)

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BEST ODDS FOR DENVER NUGGETS VS. MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES

• The best odds on the Denver Nuggets are at Caesars, where you'll find Nuggets +2.5 (-110)
• Minnesota is being offered as a 2.5-point favorite at most places, with the best odds on Timberwolves -2 (-114) at FanDuel
• The best odds on the Over are at BetRivers, offering Over 204.5 (-109). You'll find the best odds on the Under at DraftKings, who is hanging Under 205 (-110)

DENVER NUGGETS VS. MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES INJURY REPORT

DENVER NUGGETS INJURY REPORT

• JAMAL MURRAY - QUESTIONABLE - CALF

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES INJURY REPORT

• MIKE CONLEY - QUESTIONABLE - LEG

WHY DENVER NUGGETS WILL COVER THE SPREAD

The Nuggets will win this game if they continue to dominate down low. Entering the series after playing a weak Lakers frontcourt, the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference was stymied for the first two games of the series by one of the best rim defenses in the NBA, shooting just 55.6% in that zone.

Over the past three, they've turned things around in stunning fashion with 71% of shots falling within four feet.

So, if you're of the belief that Denver's incredibly effective offensive frontcourt merely ran into a speedbump after jumping up to stronger competition, you should have no real concerns here.

Normal service for the Nuggets has resumed down low with Nikola Jokic and Aaron Gordon wreaking havoc, and on the flip side the defense here has been spicy over the past three games, holding Minnesota under 114 points per 100 possessions in each.

Best of all, the Nuggets were able to survive a rather solid shooting night from the Timberwolves in Game 4 of this series and have held Minnesota around 30% in the surrounding games. Denver's shot a blistering 46.7% from 3 over these games, making this team's look even stronger.

WHY MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES WILL COVER THE SPREAD

The formula here for the Timberwolves is quite simple. Get back to defending the 3, as you did all season long, and come out with energy in the frontcourt.

Minnesota, which ranked third in rebounding rate, has now lost the battle on the glass in three of the last four games to the team which sat fourth in that category this season. Entering the playoffs with the second-best rim defense in the NBA according to Cleaning the Glass and the fifth-best 3-point defense, too, the Timberwolves have been handled in both of those areas over the last three games.

The hope here for the Timberwolves is that after taking a strong punch from the Nuggets, they'll get back to playing their basketball. On paper, Minnesota should hold the keys to this series with its ability to slow a Denver team powered by its offense, and on the flip side it entered the playoffs with the league's best 3-point attack.

Returning home, where it has shot five percentage points better from 3 during the playoffs, perhaps it has one last stand in it.

FINAL NUGGETS-TIMBERWOLVES PICK & PREDICTION

I'll admit, I went into this game wanting to take Denver. It has adjusted quite well to a tougher frontcourt than it faced in the first round, and even entering this series I expected a slow start but an ultimate victory out of the second seed in the West.

I do think there's a Game 7 looming here, though. Minnesota has been so incredibly strong inside all season and the probability that it would fold for a fourth straight game where it's been at its very strongest is slim.

That's why the Timberwolves come in as favorites, and I think you have to respect this line.

Expect the Timberwolves to lean on their elite frontcourt to slow the Nuggets' roll just a hair while the shooting numbers regress for to the mean for both teams.

FINAL NUGGETS-TIMERWOLVES PICK & PREDICTION: MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES ML (-126)

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