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After an exciting first round of March Madness, the Round of 32 will begin today. In the Midwest, the no. 11 Oregon Ducks (24-11) will match up against the no. 3 Creighton Bluejays (24-9) in an exciting second-round meeting. Set to take place in Pittsburgh, PA, only one of these teams will advance to the Sweet 16.
The Ducks are coming off a massive upset over no.6 South Carolina in the first round. With an impressive 87-73 victory over the Gamecocks, it was Jermaine Couisnard who erupted for 40 points. If you weren't aware, Cousinard was a three-year member of the Gamecocks, before transferring to Oregon.
Holding the largest lead of 18 points, the Ducks were a formidable force on offense, shooting nearly 60 percent. While they were a lower-ranked seed, Oregon maintained a lead primarily through the second half. Able to cover the -2.5 point spread, the Ducks will move on to the second round for the first time since the 2020-2021 season.
I have Creighton to go far in this year's tournament, and they breezed through the first round. Advancing with a 77-60 lead over Akron, the Bluejays were crisp from the floor. Easily covering the -11.5-point spread, Creighton showcased how dynamic their offense can be.
Shooting well over 50 percent overall, Creighton is top 20 on the offensive end. While they had a successful first round, tonight's matchup will bring a much tougher opponent, along with emotions.
Both of these teams haven't matched up since the spring of 2011. With Oregon holding a 2-1 head-to-head lead, Creighton's been able to cover in two games, one of which Oregon was favored by four points.
Let's not forget Creighton was one game away from reaching last year's final four. After losing to San Diego State by just one point in the elite 8, they are out for blood. With opening odds to win it all at +2500, they have a tough road in the midwest region, next to Purdue and Tennessee.
Slightly overshadowed by UConn in the Big East, Creighton is an incredibly talented team, led by one of the most talented "big 3" in all of college basketball. With Baylor Scheierman, Trey Alexander, and Ryan Kalkbrenner they make up 66 percent of the team's total offense. As we saw in the first round, the Bluejays have more of a balanced offensive attack, with Kalkbrenner leading the way with 23 points.
One of the more elite perimeter-defending teams, they held Akron to just 21.4 percent from deep on 60 total points. They may not have the "hype" Purdue, amongst other teams, do, but look for them to crack their way into the Sweet 16.
Speaking of emotions, Oregon head coach Dana Altman will reunite with his former team, whom he coached for 16 seasons. While he moved on from the team in 2010, he led the Bluejays to seven NCAA tournament appearances. In this highly anticipated, yet emotional matchup, the Bluejays are favored to win this matchup by a -4.5 point spread.
The Ducks enter tonight's game as 4.5-point underdogs, and will need to control the boards since they only average 34 rebounds per game. Not the best perimeter shooting team, the Ducks can absolutely pull off yet another upset, especially with their recent play. If Couisnard can get hot again, Oregon will need to attack inside the paint and limit turnovers, which were an issue against South Carolina.
For those interested in betting on this matchup, I've compiled all the necessary data, odds, and statistics to facilitate informed betting predictions for Friday, Mar. 23.
ODDS CURRENT AS OF MAR. 23 AT 3:00 P.M. ET
*ATS = Against the Spread
*O/U = Over/Under
Category | Statistics |
---|---|
Last 5 Games | 5-0 |
Last 10 Games | 7-3 |
ATS Record | 17-18 |
O/U Record | 21-14 |
Last 5 Games ATS | 3-2 |
Last 10 Games ATS | 4-6 |
Last 5 Games O/U | 3-2 |
Last 10 Games O/U | 6-4 |
Offensive Efficiency | 1.074 (85th) |
Defensive Efficiency | 1.021 (156th) |
Points Per Game | 75.7 (114th) |
Opponent Points Per Game | 71.9 (182nd) |
Three-Point Percentage | 33.8% (191st) |
Rebounds Per Game | 34.1 (252nd) |
Last 10 Games ATS Wins | Stanford (+1.5), Arizona (-12), Colorado (+2.5), South Carolina (-2.5) |
*ATS = Against the Spread
*O/U = Over/Under
Category | Statistics |
---|---|
Last 5 Games | 4-1 |
Last 10 Games | 8-2 |
ATS Record | 18-15 |
O/U Record | 16-17 |
Last 5 Games ATS | 4-1 |
Last 10 Games ATS | 8-2 |
Last 5 Games O/U | 3-2 |
Last 10 Games O/U | 5-5 |
Offensive Efficiency | 1.143 (16th) |
Defensive Efficiency | 0.987 (72nd) |
Points Per Game | 80.4 (34th) |
Opponent Points Per Game | 69.4 (101st) |
Three-Point Percentage | 36.5% (42nd) |
Rebounds Per Game | 37.9 (61st) |
Last 10 Games ATS Wins | Xavier (-1.5), Georgetown (-19), Butler (-2.5), Connecticut (+2.5), Seton Hal (-9.5), Marquette (-8), Villanova (-1.5), Akron (-11.5) |
As mentioned before, there's a reason why the Bluejays are back hotter than ever in the NCAA tournament. Although their first test wasn't as easy as expected, they face a Ducks team, that's won five straight matchups. For this game, I advise tailing my picks lightly, especially since the further we move into March Madness, the tougher the matchups will get.
There's no question Oregon has been playing better as of late, especially defensively. However, what sets these teams apart is Creighton's ability to defend, especially the three-ball. 18-15 against the spread, the Bluejays face the Ducks, who allow opposing teams to shoot well over 50 percent from the floor. Not the best at defending the three-point line, Oregon is 156th in the country in terms of defensive efficiency. Having N'Faly Dante back in the lineup will for sure bring Oregon a boost in the tournament.
What makes the NCAA Tournament so exciting, is the close matchups, and even upsets at times. While we can analyze all of these statistics, and watch both teams all year, it comes down to that very moment here in March.
Creighton has been one of the most efficient teams on offense the entire season, and has shown why they are true title contenders in this year's tournament. While holding Akron to just 60 points, we saw the Bluejays tear it up from the floor. All five of their starters finished with points in double figures. And to Akron's credit, they were one of the more elite teams in the nation, allowing just 66 points per game.
With the 16th-best offense in the nation, It's hard to envision Oregon holding them defensively. Finishing second in the Big East behind UConn, the Bluejays are a team that can splash from anywhere on the court. Able to put up points beyond the arc or inside, this is what makes this team so dangerous.
Shooting 36.5 percent from beyond the arc, Creighton puts up an incredible 29 three-pointers per game. This could be an issue for Oregon, who allowed the 256th-worst opponent three-point percentage all year (34.8).
8-2 against the spread in the last ten games, the Bluejays covered in some impressive games against Connecticut and Nebraska. Although Oregon covered against South Carolina, Colorado, and Arizona, we can't forget they lost six straight covers from late February to mid-March.
Jermaine Couisnard balled out against his former team in round one, with a 40-point stat line. What if I told you that Couisnard isn't the Ducks top scorer? An incredible athlete, the guard should be heavily involved in tonight's matchup. However, he averaged 16.1 points on the season, and had a few outlier performances this year.
Although. Creighton isn't the top defensive team, I can't see Cousinard putting up 40 points back-to-back, especially since he hasn't performed like that all season.
Creighton's been able to cover in over 50 percent of games, when they've been favored by at least four points. If this is the same team that defeated UConn 85-66, the Ducks won't have a shot tonight. They have one of the strongest starting units in all of college basketball, and I'm taking that over Oregon's hot streak.
Statistically, these two teams don't add up, and look for the Bluejays, they put up over 80 points per game, and rank in the top 2o in terms of point differential (+11).
I love the over for this game, especially those both teams are the best defensively. With Oregon 6-4, totaling the over in the past ten games, I expect a higher-scoring matchup tonight. Over the season, the Ducks finished 21-14, with 21 games hitting the over. For Creighton, 16 of their matchups went over the projected total points.
With the line set at 146.5, the books are expecting this game to be on the higher-scoring side. With the Bluejays ranking top 20 in field goal percentage (48.8 %) and free throw percentage (78 %), I expect them to put up points against Oregon, which allows over 70 points per game.
As stated before, Oregon is ranked toward the bottom in several statistical categories. The Bluejays offense enough should be the catalyst for the over to hit tonight.
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