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Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks: betting odds and predictions for Apr. 21

Publish Date: 04/20/2024
Fact checked by: Allan Howe
Key Points
  • The Bucks will likely play this game without Giannis Antetokounmpo, who was injured last week.
  • Indiana owns one of the best interior defenses in basketball and can take away Milwaukee's biggest weapon on offense.
  • The Pacers rank inside the top 10 in forcing turnovers, which has hurt the Bucks down the stretch.
  • Milwaukee is just 3-8 in its last 11 games.

The Milwaukee Bucks had a very strange season. They continued to lack prowess on the defensive end, changed coaches midway through, forgot how to play offense and then lost star Giannis Antetokounmpo to injury just a week before the playoffs. Now, it's time to pull up the bootstraps and play some playoff basketball.

(Photo by Juan Ocampo/NBAE via Getty Images)

The good news here is that the matchup for a team down on its luck offensively couldn't be any friendlier. The Pacers were one of the most horrid teams in the league on defense throughout the year, something that continued on as we hit the final month of the season.

With that said, Indiana is here on account of its offense and it's not like Milwaukee has exactly shined on that end, either.

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The Bucks will be up against it without Antetokounmpo, though on the bright side with the playoffs kicking into gear their injury report -- heavily-populated for much of the season -- is completely clean around their biggest name.

Let's get into the best way to bet on Pacers vs. Bucks on April 21.

INDIANA PACERS VS. MILWAUKEE BUCKS FANDUEL ODDS FOR APR. 21

MONEY LINE

  • INDIANA PACERS: -120
  • MILWAUKEE BUCKS: +102

SPREAD

  • INDIANA PACERS: -1.5 (-110)
  • MILWAUKEE BUCKS: +1.5 (-110)

OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)

  • OVER 231.5 (-112)
  • UNDER 231.5 (-108)

BEST ODDS FOR INDIANA PACERS VS. MILWAUKEE BUCKS

  • DraftKings is currently offering the best odds on the favorites here, hanging Pacers -1 (-110)
  • Milwaukee enters this one as the underdog, with the best odds over at BetMGM, who is offering Bucks +1 (-110)
  • The total is set at 231.5 points nearly across the board. DraftKings has the best odds on the Under 232.5 (-110) while the best line on the Over 231.5 (-110) is at BetMGM

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INDIANA PACERS VS. MILWAUKEE BUCKS INJURY REPORT

INDIANA PACERS INJURY REPORT

  • BENNEDICT MATHURIN - OUT FOR SEASON - SHOULDER

MILWAUKEE BUCKS INJURY REPORT

  • GIANNIS ANTETOKOUNMPO - DOUBTFUL - LEG

WHY INDIANA PACERS WILL COVER THE SPREAD

The Pacers will win this game by keeping the ball in the hands of their offense, and hoping that the Bucks continue to waffle offensively. This is a team which ranked ninth-best in turnover rate this season and will meet a Milwaukee side which has forced an incredibly low 12 per game during the month of April, ranking third-worst.

Indiana really made its mark inside the arc this season, converting on a very high number of looks both at the rim and in the mid-range, and while it has done an above-average job of knocking down 3-pointers we saw the team shine at the rim over the last month of the season with a five-point increase in shooting accuracy according to Cleaning the Glass.

The Pacers will be licking their chops here at the sight of a Bucks defense which was already 20th this month in rim protection now down Antetokounmpo.

In addition, this was already a great matchup for the Pacers, who excel at protecting the rim behind Myles Turner. The lifeblood of the Bucks' offense has been high-percentage looks from up close, and without Antetokounmpo we can expect that success rate to diminish as this team searches for answers.

WHY MILWAUKEE BUCKS WILL COVER THE SPREAD

Milwaukee's avenue into this one will come at the 3-point line, where it has sat just outside the top 10 all season long. It's run cold as of late, which is the likely reason its offensive numbers look so putrid, but it did have some very encouraging shooting numbers down the stretch prior to the final game of the regular season, knocking down nearly 40% over a four-game stretch just before the regular-season finale.

With the injury to Antetokounmpo and a tough stretch run which saw them lose eight of their last 11 games, it's easy to forget that just about a week ago it looked like the Bucks were finally turning a corner and building some form heading into the playoffs.

They picked up big wins over the Celtics and Magic, finding their touch from outside.

The injury here to Antetokounmpo is understandably massive, but this team still has plenty of life offensively behind Damian Lillard and a full complement of shooters -- something that wasn't always the case with Khris Middleton floating in and out of the lineup as he nursed himself back to full health.

FINAL PACERS-BUCKS PICK & PREDICTION

For all the good that I've tried to point out in the Bucks' final couple of weeks, it's pretty hard to sugar coat it. They've turned the ball over an inordinate amount and will now meet a Pacers defense that, yes, struggles to contest shots but still forces the 10th-most turnovers in the NBA.

Milwaukee will try its best to shoot over a porous 3-point defense on its way to victor, but it's hard to ignore how important scoring in the paint has been to this team. Not only is it down its best interior scorer and defender, it will now have to face arguably the best rim protection in the NBA.

I'm not a giant fan of the Pacers in general, but this is a pretty friendly matchup when you consider the Bucks have not shot well and have taken a big step backwards after making some in-season improvements on defense under Doc Rivers. Indiana should come away with this one rather decisively on the road.

FINAL PACERS-BUCKS PICK & PREDICTION: INDIANA PACERS ML (-115)

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