Best Soft Odds Bets for NFL Conference Title Games

The NFL's final four is in place. Four teams will meet on Sunday to decide a spot in Super Bowl LX, which despite what it sounds like, isn't the opposite of an XL-sized game.

The Super Bowl matchup is coming into focus, and more likely than not, it will be a game we've seen before. Of the four possible Super Bowl matchups, three of them have happened before, and in the last 12 years.

It's less than 24 hours after Sunday's games ended, but odds are out in your favorite sports betting app. This article serves as a guide for NFL conference title game betting.

Rams Underdogs on Road in Third Matchup Against Seahawks

• NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: LA Rams at Seattle, 6:30 PM ET, Sunday Jan. 25
• MONEYLINE: Rams +2.5 at Seahawks

How many times have two teams from the same division met in a Conference Championship game? The answer is 19. The Seahawks vs Rams will be the 20th.

• These stats are since the 1970 NFL/AFL merger:
• Two teams from the same NFL division have met in a Conference title game 19 times previously.
• The team with the better regular season record is 12-7 in those matchups.
• In 14 of the 19 games, the team that won the third matchup had either split or won both of the previous two meetings.
• Only five times did a team that had failed to beat the division rival in the regular season, defeat that same team in the playoffs.

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The Seahawks lost to the Rams in Los Angeles in November. The Rams lost to the Seahawks in Seattle about two weeks ago.

This NFC Championship Game will mark the second time two NFC West teams have played in the conference title game in the last five seasons.

All of that is to say, I don't necessarily lean heavy into historical numbers, but I do think it's important to look at context when two division rivals meet in the conference title game.

I like the Seahawks to harass Matthew Stafford and get a win on Sunday. The line is -2.5 Seattle. I would search for an alternate point line for this game. The Seahawks won by 35 points on Saturday. I suspect this game will be closer, of course, but it could still be a 7-10 point spread.

• ALTERNATE SPREAD BET: FanDuel prices the Seahawks at -6.5 at +186.

Nix Injury Makes Pats Favorites on the Road

• AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: New England at Denver, 3 PM ET, Sunday Jan. 25
• MONEYLINE: Patriots -5.5 at Broncos

Why would you want to dive into the odds of a football game only hours after the matchup has been set?

In the world of NFL betting, timing is often more important than the actual pick itself. Professional bettors (known as "sharps") prefer to submit a betting slip as soon as the lines open. I've often finalized my bets Sunday night or Monday morning rather than waiting a full week until the matchup. But why?

The early odds are often "soft." Not soft like a boiled egg. Not soft like a duck-feather-filled pillow. Not soft like Generation Z. No, they're soft because the market hasn't had a chance to react yet. To put it simply: the fewer bets placed on an event, the less likely the oddsmakers have secured a harder line to benefit themselves.

Which odds are "soft" for Sunday's NFL playoff games? I think the moneyline is a nice opportunity. The Broncos getting 5.5 points at home is a wonderful line. Here's why:

The Broncos have an elite defense. The defense is mostly healthy, and it has the advantage of sleeping in their own beds all week.

Second: the Broncos will be playing one mile above sea level. So will the Patriots, of course. But, the Denver players are used to it. I like the Broncos to wear down the Patriots and actually win this game. But I don't care if they win. All I want is Denver to stay within 5 points. If so, my$110 bet will win $100 (the moneyline is set to -110).

Bo Nix will be on the sidelines. So, what? The man doesn't play defense or special teams, and that two-thirds of the game favors the home team. Grab those points and take the Broncos in the AFC Championship Game. Do it early, before the line tightens. And it will.

• BEST BET: Broncos +5.5 vs Patriots (-110 from Bet365)