San Antonio Spurs vs. OKC Thunder Western Conference Finals Game 7 Best Bets & Odds (May 30)

The New York Knicks have already claimed the Eastern Conference’s spot in the NBA Finals. We’ll find out who they’ll play tonight when the San Antonio Spurs face off with the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals. Let's take a look at today's best bets.

(Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images)

Given how this series has played out, figuring out the Best Bets for this game will be no easy task. Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder bounce back as they did after Games 1 and 4? Or will Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs keep the good times rolling?

Both are tough but good questions. Let’s check out the odds for the game and see if we can come up with some answers.

Western Conference Finals Game 7 Odds: San Antonio Spurs vs. OKC Thunder (May 30)

• Spread: San Antonio Spurs +3.5 (-108) | Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5 (-112)
• Moneyline: San Antonio Spurs +130 | Oklahoma City Thunder -155
• Total: O/U 212.5 (-115/-105)

Odds via DraftKings

What in the world happened in Game 6? After a strong, 13-point victory at home in Game 5, the future looked good for the Thunder. They didn’t get a massive advantage from the bench (40-33), but they still got one. OKC shot 48% from the floor, 44% from 3-point range (14-32), and got 33 points from the foul line.

But in Game 6, it was almost like we were watching two different teams. Oklahoma City shot 37% from the floor, 25% from 3-point range, and only got 11 points from the foul line. After scoring 32 points in Game 5, SGA managed a season-low 15 in Game 6. After failing to score 100 points just once in the regular season, they ended the night under 100 for the second time in three games.

San Antonio, on the other hand, had a much better game in Game 6, shooting 47% from the floor, 37% from 3-point range, and scoring 21 points from the foul line. Victor Wembanyama, after a dismal 4-15 performance in Game 5, went 10-21 and scored 28 points in just 28 minutes on the floor.

So—what happened? Easy, OKC got its metaphorical rear-end kicked. Wemby took the fight to them and won. San Antonio improved its defensive rating from 124.5 in Game 5 to 91 in Game 6.

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Western Conference Finals Game 7 Best Bets: Spurs vs. Thunder

• Over 212.5 (-112, DraftKings)

Both teams are great. They have star power, solid role players, depth, they can score a ton of points if they need to, and/or shut the opposing team down if that is what’s called for. But we knew all of that before the series started. But what have we learned since the start of the series, and how can that knowledge help us bet?

We’ve learned both teams can respond to adversity and bounce back when they need to. Does that mean you should take the Thunder because they are “bouncing back” from a loss? Not necessarily, because the Spurs are facing adversity as well in the form of their second consecutive elimination game.

This is what I think we’ll see tonight: both teams will turn it up. Each one will take its respective game to another level in order to lock down a spot in the NBA Finals. It may be a little harder for the Thunder with Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell ruled out. But OKC’s roster is known for its depth. The Thunder have players who can step up.

Consequently, I expect Game 7 to be a lot like Game 1: competitive, intense, and high scoring.

• Spurs ML (+130, DraftKings)

Either team can win this game, making the underdog a solid value play. San Antonio leads the season series (regular and post) with the Thunder 7-4, 3-3 in the playoffs, and 4-1 during the season. It will likely be a close game that could easily come down to whoever makes the most plays in the final moments. From a betting perspective, that makes the underdog the better value.

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Western Conference Finals MVP

• Victor Wembanyama +130 (DraftKings)

If San Antonio wins, the conference finals MVP will be Wemby. It is easy to say he deserves it and that no one on the roster has come close to the impact he has. To quantify it, check out his offensive and defensive player ratings for the series: offensive—112.4 and defensive—101.5. He’s second-best on the team in both categories, resulting in the best net rating (10.9) among players who started six games.

• Alex Caruso +550 (DraftKings)

If Oklahoma City wins, it will probably come down to whoever makes the most significant contribution to the victory in Game 7. I say that because one big night from SGA will probably be all it takes for voters to hand him the award. But heading into Game 7, Alex Caruso deserves it more than the regular-season MVP.

SGA has the better stat line with 24.3 points, 2.7 rebounds, and 8.8 assists per game. Caruso has averaged 15.3/2.0/2.3. But if you quantify offensive performance as a whole (offensive rating), Caruso’s is higher, 112.0 to 107.7 for SGA. He has also had a bigger impact on the defensive end, too (101.0 to 115.3).

As important as defensive play has been in the outcome of this series, if OKC wins, Caruso should be the WCF MVP.