Super Bowl 61 Odds: Seahawks No Longer Consensus Favorite After Rams Trade For Trent McDuffie

Super Bowl odds are more likely to shift for teams much lower down the pecking order in the offseason, but occasionally a contender will make a move that will result in a change. That appears to be the case with the move the Los Angeles Rams made this week to acquire former first-round pick Trent McDuffie from the Kansas City Chiefs.

(Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images)

McDuffie graded out as the No. 12 cornerback in the NFL last season, according to PFF, with an overall grade of 75.6. In the aftermath of that trade, the defending champion Seattle Seahawks are no longer the consensus favorite to win Super Bowl 61. Let’s take a look at where the odds now stand:

Super Bowl 61 Odds

Here are the Super Bowl 61 odds for the top 16 teams as listed at DraftKings:

• Los Angeles Rams +750
• Seattle Seahawks +900
• Buffalo Bills +1000
• Baltimore Ravens +1100
• Philadelphia Eagles +1400
• Kansas City Chiefs +1400
• Green Bay Packers +1400
• Los Angeles Chargers +1500
• Detroit Lions +1500
• New England Patriots +1600
• San Francisco 49ers +1900
• Houston Texans +2000
• Denver Broncos +2000
• Jacksonville Jaguars +2200
• Chicago Bears +2500
• Cincinnati Bengals +3000

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It is worth noting here that odds do not shift because a team trades for a player or lets one go. Player movement alone do not move the needle with sportsbooks. Instead, sportsbooks shift odds to protect themselves, not because a team makes a trade like the Rams recently did.

So, if they see enough money come in on one side of a wager or for one particular market, they’ll shift odds to encourage bettors to be the other way or on another team. That way, they can avoid having too much liability on any one team.

But in the wake of this trade, the Seattle Seahawks are no longer the consensus favorite:

• The Rams (+750) have moved in front of the Seahawks (+900) at DraftKings.
• Both teams have +750 odds at FanDuel.
• Seattle is still the favorite at bet365 at +800 to +850 for the Rams.
• Both teams have +800 odds at BetMGM.
• The Rams are favored at Caesars at +800 to +900 for Seattle.

Money must have been wagered in such a way to warrant some movement in the odds, but does that mean you should follow suit and put something down on the Rams? Let’s take a closer look at why the team felt such a move was needed.

Dissecting the Logic Behind the Rams Trading for Trent McDuffie

The Los Angeles Rams had the NFL's No. 1 offense last season in total yards (394.6 per game), No. 1 passing (268.1 yards per game), and were the only team in the NFL to average 30+ points per game (30.5). But they lost two of three games to the Seattle Seahawks despite Matthew Stafford throwing for 457 yards and three touchdowns in one game and for 374 yards and three touchdowns in the other (the NFC conference title game).

What was the problem? Sam Darnold threw for 346 yards and three scores in the NFC title game, winning 31-27. In the other, he threw for 270 yards, two TDs, and two interceptions. Ironically, in their win, Stafford threw for 130 yards and two touchdowns while Darnold threw for 279 yards but had four interceptions.

Clearly, there aren’t any serious issues on the offensive side of the ball. But when it mattered most, the defense let Los Angeles down. The unit came in ranked No. 19 against the pass last season, allowing an average of 216.7 yards per game.

According to PFF, the Rams' pass defense ranked 18th in the league. On an individual basis, safeties Kamren Kinchens and Kamren Curl graded out well as the No. 10 and t-No. 11 safeties in the league. But as for the cornerbacks, Roger McCreary graded out the highest of the group at No. 25 with Cobie Durant coming in at No. 44, Darious Williams at No. 48, and Emmanuel Forbes at No. 91.

McDuffie graded out as the twelfth-best cornerback in the NFL.

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Super Bowl 61 Odds: Time to Bet on the Rams?

The short answer to that question is this: yes, you absolutely want to put your money down on the Rams now.

More trades can and probably will happen, and then there’s free agency and the NFL draft. So, rosters across the league, including the Rams', could look drastically different come September than they do right now. But the bones of a contender are already present with the Rams. Are they done improving the roster? Probably not.

However, big spenders in free agency seldom see the benefit they expect, and odds usually don’t move once the draft is done since those players are unproven as NFL commodities.

The odds for a team like the Rams are unlikely to change much more (if at all) until the season gets underway. When it comes to the Rams, assuming this team picks up where it left off, their Super Bowl 61 odds are more likely to get shorter (and your potential payout smaller) than longer. If they do get longer, it will be because they are losing games and falling out of contention.

So, now that I’ve given you the long answer, I’ll say it again: yes, it is time to bet on the Rams.