Super Bowl MVP Odds: There’s Value In Betting Before Conference Title Games

I know what you are thinking: Bet on Super Bowl MVP odds now? Are you nuts? My wife would say yes, but that’s not important. As crazy as it sounds, if you are thinking about betting on who will get named Super Bowl MVP on February 8, now is the time to do it. The reason why is straightforward.

When sportsbooks adjust the odds for players on the final two teams, everyone’s odds will be much shorter.

(Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

Latest Super Bowl MVP Odds

Most Super Bowl MVP odds boards will have odds posted for players on all four conference title game teams. Needless to say, the full list is long, which is why I’ll go with the top 12 players on FanDuel’s betting board:

• Sam Darnold +250
• Matthew Stafford +290
• Drake Maye +310
• Jaxon Smith-Njgiba +1400
• Puka Nacua +1700
• Kenneth Walker III +1700
• Jarrett Stidham +1900
• Davante Adams +4500
• Rhamondre Stevenson +4500
• Stefon Diggs +5500
• Rashid Shaheed +7500
• Kyren Williams +8000

As could be expected, the top three are quarterbacks. A QB has won Super Bowl MVP honors in 34 of 59 games, followed by defensive players (10), wide receivers (8), running backs (7), and a kick/punt returner. Quarterbacks have won the last three and five of the last six.

If Bo Nix were playing for the Broncos, his name would undoubtedly be up there, too. But since he isn’t, expectations aren't high for Stidham or the Broncos, for that matter. The first defensive player on the board is Broncos linebacker Nik Bonitto (+10000). Occasionally, sportsbooks will include an offensive lineman or two on odds boards.

It would take an incredibly rare set of circumstances for one to win Super Bowl MVP.

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Why Everyone Should Bet On Super Bowl MVP Odds Before the Conference Title Games

The answer to that is easy: it’s all about value.

Let’s say you plan to bet on a quarterback, since the QB on the winning team usually wins. Sam Darnold is the current favorite at +250. But if the Seahawks win, his odds will shorten (i.e., +150 or maybe even -110, depending on the opponent). On the off chance the Broncos pull off the upset, Jarret Stidham will see his odds shift from +1900 to something like +500, probably.

That means your $100 wager will result in a $600 payday rather than $2000.

But what if a quarterback doesn’t win?

Take Super Bowl 56, for example. After the wild card round, the top four players on the betting boards were all quarterbacks. The eventual MVP, then-Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp, had odds of +2200. By the time the Rams punched their ticket to the Super Bowl, his odds moved to +650.

Everyone should bet on Super Bowl MVP odds prior to the conference title games for one simple reason: you can win more money if you make the right choice.

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Super Bowl MVP Picks

The good thing about betting on a Super Bowl MVP before the conference title games is that everyone has value. Come Sunday night or Monday morning, new odds will have been posted, and everyone’s odds will be shorter, meaning you win less money. If you’re hesitant, it’s understandable. Few things are as annoying as having money on a player, and he’s not even in the game.

There is risk, but if you’re up for it, here are my top picks for each team:

• Los Angeles Rams – Puke Nacua +1700

Nacua has had seven games with 10+ receptions, six of which had 100+ yards. If he catches 10+ balls for 100 yards and 1+ touchdowns, he’ll win MVP.

• Seattle Seahawks – Ernest Jones IV +10000

Sam Darnold has been playing well, and the Seattle offense is capable of exploding, but I wouldn’t count on it against the Denver or New England defenses. So, the best candidate for Seattle will be Ernest Jones IV, the leader of its shutdown defense.

• Denver Broncos – Jarrett Stidham +1900

Stidham is a backup for a reason, but he has shown he is capable of dissecting an NFL defense for 300+ yards and a couple of touchdowns. If he does, no one will be talking about the defense's dominant performance. The conversation will be all about Stidham.

Honorable Mention – Nik Bonitto +10000

• New England Patriots – Drake Maye +310

This season has been all about Drake Maye making plays in the passing game and with his legs when necessary. If the Patriots make it to the Super Bowl, they’ll win because of how well Maye commands the offense.