Super Bowl Player Props: Don't Wait to Bet on Jaxon Smith-Njigba

If you are waiting until game day to bet on Super Bowl LX (60) player prop bets, that’s understandable. Many things can happen in the days leading up to the game that could have an impact on how you’ll bet. But if you are waiting to bet on Seattle wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s Super Bowl player props, don’t.

Could he get hurt in practice, walking up the stairs, crossing the street, etc.? What if he gets arrested and subsequently suspended before kickoff? Chances are good nothing will happen, and he’ll be perfectly fine, but his availability has nothing to do with why you shouldn’t wait to bet on him.

(Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images)

Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s Player Props Popular in Early Betting

Things could happen that could impact a player’s availability for the Super Bowl and/or how well he’ll play. But those “things” are not why you should get your bets in on his player props now. No, it’s because everyone else is.

If everyone else is jumping off the bridge, are you going to join them?

Of course not. But since Smith-Njigba’s player props are getting a lot of attention at sportsbooks, the odds are changing.  The more a market changes, the harder it gets to win it and/or the less money you'll win, depending on how the odds shift.

JSN has been the most popular first touchdown scorer market at DraftKings, accounting for about 15% of the handle, and the most popular anytime touchdown market. His anytime touchdown prop opened at +100 at DraftKings, but DraftKings has already shifted the odds to -110.

That means while a $100 bet would have resulted in a $200 payday at +100 (your stake plus $100 in winnings), you’ll now have to bet $110 to win $100. He’s been a popular bet to have the most receptions and receiving yards, and has become a liability at some sportsbooks to win MVP.

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Is now the right time to bet on JSN?

So, is it time to rush out and get in on the action before his odds drop any further? That depends. If bets keep coming in on him, his odds will get lower, along with the payout you could win. But what if the public is wrong (it happens)?

Let’s take a look at Smith-Njigba’s player props and see which ones you should bet or pass on.

If you're seeking out the latest NFL MVP odds, Ballislife has that and all future team and player bets on our website.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Super Bowl Player Prop Picks

• OVER 93.5 Receiving Yards at -110 (FanDuel)

It is not a secret. Sam Darnold is going to target Smith-Njigba early and often. The only way it stops is if the Seahawks build an early lead and want to start burning time off the clock with the run game. The Patriots have a good secondary, but don’t bank on them limiting JSN even a little bit.

He went over this number in 11 regular-season games and had 100+ yards in the first half of the NFC title game. Only two guys went for OVER 93.5 yards this season; JSN will make it three. Take the OVER ASAP. This total is only going to get higher.

• OVER 6.5 Receptions Made at -145 (DraftKings)

He had seven catches from nine targets in the first half in the NFC title game, and OVER this number in 14 games this season. Darnold will never stop throwing to him, so he’ll go OVER this TOTAL eventually, if not in the first half like he did last week. You’ll want to take the OVER on this one sooner rather than later as well. Like his receiving yards TOTAL, it’s only going to get higher.

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Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Touchdown Props

• Anytime Touchdown at -105 (bet365)

Smith-Njigba recorded a touchdown in eight of 17 regular-season games and in both playoff games. If this market still had plus money odds, I’d say take it. But now that it’s at -105 (-110 at several sportsbooks), it’s worth including in a same-game parlay but not as a single wager.

• First Touchdown at +550 (bet365)

Pass on this market. You can’t say with any certainty which team will score first or who will score for them. There are too many variables that you just can’t account for. The payoff is nice if it hits, but I don’t see any value in his market.

• To Score 2+ Touchdowns at +600 (FanDuel)

Don't bet on Smith-Njigba scoring more than 2 touchdowns

Pass on this market. JSN recorded 2+ touchdowns in just two games this season. If anyone is going to do it, he’s a great candidate, but with all the playmakers the Seahawks have, there are other markets that are more worthy of your consideration.

• Anytime First Half Touchdown +200 (FanDuel)
• Anytime Second Half Touchdown +260 (FanDuel)

Rather than bet on his anytime market, take either or both of these. Six of his 12 total touchdowns were in the first half this season, and six in the second. With his importance and prevalence in the offense, he’s a solid bet to score in either half.

• First Team Touchdown +290 (FanDuel)

Five of his 12 touchdowns this season were the first scored by the Seahawks in a game. With how involved he is in the offense, there is a good chance he does it again. However, a running back scored the first in seven games this season. It’s an advisable bet, but proceed with caution.