Thursday Night Football Anytime Touchdown Scorer Props: Lions vs. Bills Odds & Best Bets (Sept. 17)

There isn’t a ton of history between the Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills (Bills lead all-time series 8-4-1), but in a game with two of the better offenses in the NFL, fireworks are bound to fly. That, of course, makes it a solid night for betting on Anytime Touchdown props.

Each team put up 30+ points in Week 1 and recorded four touchdowns — Buffalo against Houston and Detroit vs. New Orleans. But while the offense often gets the most attention for both teams, both also have tough, capable defenses. So, when talking about Anytime Touchdown props for Thursday Night Football, there is a lot to consider.

(Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images)

After careful consideration of the stats, trends, and past performance, here are my top TNF Anytime Touchdown Props.

TNF Anytime Touchdown Scorer Props: Detroit Lions vs. Buffalo Bills

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(all odds via FanDuel)

Josh Allen, Anytime Fourth Quarter Touchdown (+360, FanDuel)

Over the last four seasons, Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen has recorded 48 touchdowns in the ground game (7/15/12/14). He got the 2026 season off to a solid start with two against Houston in Week 1 (both in the second quarter). So the Lions defense knows it’ll need to game plan for it. But it is hard to say they have the personnel to stop him.

Detroit’s run defense was No. 14 in the league last season (114.5 yards per game allowed) and allowed 16 rushing touchdowns. Quarterbacks made only 77 rushing attempts for 258 yards and three scores. But that doesn’t necessarily mean the Lions were good at defending against mobile quarterbacks; they didn’t play too many.

The Lions were, however, not strong against the run and didn’t really do anything to address the issues in the offseason. Not that they didn’t try to improve the front seven, because they did. But the emphasis was on smaller, quicker, longer players that could rush the passer.

Which Josh Allen TNF Prop Makes The Most Sense?

Josh Allen will record a rushing touchdown in this game; it’s just a matter of when. You could take the easy route and bet on his anytime odds (-140) or go with his anytime first half (+195) or second half (+185). After all, both scores were in the second quarter last week.

However, over the last two seasons, he has recorded 26 rushing touchdowns, 10 in the first half and 16 in the second. Of those 16, 13 took place in the fourth quarter. Betting on a specific quarter is risky. But if this game is as good as expected, it could come down to a clutch play late in the game — like a rushing touchdown by a quarterback.

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Jahmyr Gibbs, Anytime Touchdown First Half (+100, FanDuel)

Jahmyr Gibbs is an interesting study because, while we have a solid body of work to reference, it doesn’t give us an accurate picture of this season. Yes, Gibbs recorded 18 touchdowns last season (13 rushing and five receiving). He was one of the most productive running backs in the NFL.

But he shared the backfield with David Montgomery. Montgomery got 35.7% of the running back carries last season to 55% for Gibbs. He also accounted for eight rushing touchdowns. But Montgomery is now in Houston. If Week 1 is any indication, Gibbs will be the featured back and get the bulk of the carries (29 of 33 vs. the Saints).

Gibbs getting the ball in the red zone is a given; it’s going to happen. The question is: can the Bills stop him? Looking at recent history, the answer is probably not.

What the numbers tell us about the Buffalo Defense

Buffalo ranked No. 28 against the run last season (136.2 yards per game allowed). Teams recorded more rushing touchdowns (a league-high 24) against them than passing (19), one of two teams that allowed that to occur (Eagles being the other). Like the Lions, the Bills didn’t really do anything to address their run defense. They added personnel but failed to make a significant upgrade at the worst aspect of their defense.

Now, 18 of Buffalo’s 24 rushing touchdowns allowed went to running backs last season. Tack on another three in the passing game and the two he scored in Week 1, and his Anytime Touchdown odds look like a no-brainer — except the odds are -300 (not a recommended wager).

The second quarter was his time to shine in his first two seasons but not last year. He has scored 21 of his 29 rushing touchdowns in the last two seasons against nonconference opponents, 16 in the first half and 12 in the second (one in overtime). Last week, he scored one in each half.

All of this tells me he is a solid bet to score in either half. But since his second-half anytime touchdown odds are -110, I’m going with the first half at +100.

DJ Moore, Anytime Touchdown (+150, FanDuel)

Making a third pick is tough for this TNF game. The Bills defense only allowed 19 receiving touchdowns last season, 12 to wide receivers. Amon-Ra St. Brown is clearly the No. 1 for the Lions passing game. But Buffalo’s defense kept several teams from throwing for touchdowns last season.

Now, the Lions allowed 31 receiving touchdowns, 21 to wide receivers (second most in the league last season). But Josh Allen doesn’t really have a go-to guy in the passing game. Four players had 4+ receiving touchdowns last season, led by tight end Dalton Kincaid with 5. Both of Allen’s passing touchdowns went to wide receivers last week, one to DJ Moore and the other to Joshua Palmer. Khalil Shakir was his primary target last season but was not a priority in Week 1.

Breaking Down The Buffalo Receiving Targets

All three, Shakir (74.3), Palmer (70.8), and Moore (79.0), received solid PFF grades for their Week 1 play. Allen doesn’t play favorites, which makes any of the three a reasonable wager. But based off target share from Week 1, Moore and Shakir are the better bets. Shakir has had 11 receiving touchdowns in four years in Buffalo. Moore had 12 touchdowns in his last two seasons and 27 in his last four. Shakir had a chance to establish himself as the No. 1 for the Bills but didn’t.

I’ve got to go with Moore. Being new to the team and having more experience than the rest of the receiving corps may make him a little more appealing. He has six total touchdowns against Detroit all-time.