Fireworks ensued on Friday night as
Luka Doncic
took the soul of the Minnesota Timberwolves, helping the Dallas Mavericks to a 2-0 lead in the Western Conference Finals with some late-game heroics.
(Photo by David Berding/Getty Images)
Sunday seems for all the world to be the Timberwolves' only hope of getting back into the series, considering how damning a 3-0 deficit has proven to be over the years, and they'll have to do so on the road in Dallas.
Can Minnesota's offense awake from a three-game slumber to find a crucial win, or will Dallas' surprising defense continue to dictate this series?
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Let's get into to the best way to bet on Timberwolves vs Mavericks in Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals on Sunday.
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MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES VS. DALLAS MAVERICKS FANDUEL ODDS FOR MAY 26th
MONEY LINE
- MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES: +110
- DALLAS MAVERICKS: -130
SPREAD
- MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES: +2.5 (-114)
- DALLAS MAVERICKS: -2.5 (-106)
OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)
- OVER 207.5 (-110)
- UNDER 207.5 (-110)
BEST ODDS FOR MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES VS. DALLAS MAVERICKS
- The best odds on the Minnesota Timberwolves can be found at
FanDuel, who is hanging Timberwolves +2.5 (-114)
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- If you're looking for the best odds on the Dallas Mavericks, you'll find Mavericks -2 (-110) at Caesars.
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- FanDuel is the best place to bet the over, offering Over 207.5 (-110). The best odds on the under are at Caesars, who has Under 208 (-105).
MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES VS. DALLAS MAVERICKS INJURY REPORT
MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES INJURY REPORT INJURY REPORT
- MIKE CONLEY - QUESTIONABLE - CALF
DALLAS MAVERICKS INJURY REPORT
- LUKA DONCIC - PROBABLE - KNEE, ANKLE
- MAXI KLEBER - OUT - SHOULDER
WHY
MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES
WILL COVER THE SPREAD
The Timberwolves are trying just about everything to gain the upper hand in this series on offense, including getting
Rudy Gobert
involved on that end. The big man carried a +10 throughout the loss in Game 1, but went backwards with just a +1 rating in Game 2 despite 16 points and more solid defense down low.
He stands as one of Minnesota's greatest hopes in this game considering the Mavericks have been operating at an incredibly high level inside. They've stunned one of the best rim defenses in the NBA by scoring at a 70.8% clip within four feet in Game 2 and through two games here have scored at a blistering 74.5% clip in that zone.
Given the Timberwolves have faced two significantly weaker offensive frontcourts in the last two rounds and were elite in defending the rim all season, it could just be that they need a bit of time to adjust.
Even with those numbers, you have to be encouraged by the fact that Minnesota has posted a very palatable 114.2 Defensive Rating through two games, managing to hold the Mavericks to 24% from 3 in Game 1 and limiting the scoring in Game 2 despite a 38.7% shooting night from its opponent.
I'd say there's plenty of upward mobility for this defense, and if this is as bad as it gets it has a great chance to get back into this series.
On the offensive side of the ball, though, things really need to pick up inside the 3-point arc. A feather in the Timberwolves' cap here is a 38% mark from 3 in this series according to Cleaning the Glass, and while scoring inside has been a struggle all postseason the numbers would point to some significant regression to the mean in a positive direction from the mid-range.
WHY DALLAS MAVERICKS WILL COVER THE SPREAD
The Mavericks, on the other hand, should continue winning if this is what their frontcourt is going to do for the remainder of the playoffs.
They've now scored at a very promising 67.3% clip from within four feet according to Cleaning the Glass during the playoffs, and while their shooting has tailed off a bit it was incredibly encouraging to see its return in Game 2, even if shots weren't falling from the mid-range.
The best thing here for Dallas, too, is the fact that it turned the ball over just 10 times in Game 2 after turning it over 13 times in Game 1. The Timberwolves have been excellent at forcing turnovers all year long, and the Mavericks did struggle with turnovers throughout the Thunder series. Perhaps that Game 2 mark was a fluke, or perhaps the Mavericks are settling back in when it comes to protecting the ball.
The last thing to say here is that it would seem Doncic, even while playing through two injuries, hasn't been limited at all if Game 2 is any indication.
The team also didn't miss the contributions from Maxi Kleber from beyond the arc in Game 2, so while the injury report would seem a bit concerning I don't think we're seeing anything on the floor that would indicate they're going to be a factor here.
FINAL TIMBERWOLVES-MAVERICKS PICK & PREDICTION
I'm going to go down with the ship here and take Minnesota to come away with a much-needed win in Game 3.
They're much better than this when it comes to defending the rim, and I do think a Timberwolves team that forced turnovers on 12.7% of plays, the sixth-best mark in the league, should come away with several more here in Game 3 when you consider the Mavs were turnover machines through the final four games of the Thunder series, coughing it up a whopping 18 times in Game 7.
Dallas has also found far more success shooting the 3 on the road this postseason, with a number nearly three percentage points higher than the one it has owned at home, and it's not exactly an outlier considering it shot more 3s on the road this year and had significantly more success away from home in the second half of the season.
The Timberwolves' defense has done a great job considering their biggest strength has been stripped from them, and if things can come back down to Earth just marginally they should win this game.
This Dallas defense has struggled to stop the 3 all playoffs long, especially in this series, and it's only a matter of time before Minnesota finds a slight improvement on offense to flip this series on its head.
FINAL TIMBERWOLVES-MAVERICKS PICK & PREDICTION: MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES ML (+110)
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