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Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets: betting odds and predictions for May 4

Publish Date: 05/04/2024
Fact checked by: Allan Howe

The Minnesota Timberwolves now stand atop the league this postseason in offensive production and will face a well-balanced Denver Nuggets team fresh off a convincing win over the Los Angeles Lakers in their opening-round playoff series.

Jamal Murray's status is up in the air for the first game of this Western Conference Semifinals tilt is up in the air, but after a commanding performance on defense against a solid Lakers group, Denver would appear to have all it needs to come away with the first game of the series at home.

Will it be Denver's night on Saturday, or will Anthony Edwards and company have their say?

Let's get into the best way to bet on Timberwolves vs. Nuggets on Saturday, May 4.

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES VS. DENVER NUGGETS FANDUEL ODDS FOR MAY 4

MONEY LINE

  • MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES: +162
  • DENVER NUGGETS: -194

SPREAD

  • MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES: +4.5 (-110)
  • DENVER NUGGETS: -4.5 (-110)

OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)

  • OVER 208.5 (-110)
  • UNDER 208.5 (-110)

BEST ODDS FOR MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES VS. DENVER NUGGETS

  • The best odds on the Minnesota Timberwolves are over at Caesars, where you'll find Timberwolves +4.5 (-105).
  • Denver is being offered as a 4.5-point favorite at almost every shop, with the best odds on Nuggets -4.5 (-110) at FanDuel.
  • The best odds on the Over are at Caesars, offering Over 208 (-110). You'll find the best odds on the Under at BetRivers, who are hanging Under 208.5 (-109).

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MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES VS. DENVER NUGGETS INJURY REPORT

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES INJURY REPORT

  • NONE

DENVER NUGGETS INJURY REPORT

  • JAMAL MURRAY - QUESTIONABLE - CALF

WHY MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES WILL COVER THE SPREAD

The Timberwolves were able to split the season series with the Nuggets, managing to go 1-1 on the road and post a hot 37.9% shooting percentage from 3 which left their mark of 35.7% when hosting Denver in the dust. Best of all, they held one of the best offenses in basketball to just 108.4 points per 100 possessions in all four games while scoring 114.6 per 100 possessions on average.

Minnesota roasted a decently competent Suns defense in the opening round of the playoffs and, while its defense eventually relented in a closeout game last week, that was to be expected against a good offense which found itself down 3-0 in the series. The encouraging thing here is that the Timberwolves remained impossible to stop on the offensive end through two games of that Suns series despite some shocking struggles from 3, only to shoot 40% over the final two.

On the other side of the ball, the Timberwolves' elite 3-point defense fell off a bit against Phoenix, yet until the final game of that series they remained strong at the rim and against the mid-range jumper. They also forced the Suns to turn the ball over at a 15.1% clip, which is right in line for a team ranked just outside the top five in the league in forcing turnovers this year.

WHY DENVER NUGGETS WILL COVER THE SPREAD

The Nuggets were a rather careful team with the ball this season with a 13% turnover rate, and against the Lakers that number only improved. They kept the ball in the hands of their offense, where they were slightly less than their best against LA, though that was largely due to their inability to hit the outside shot.

Denver went to work against a weak Lakers frontcourt defense, converting at a 66.9% clip at the rim, and they won the battle on the glass in commanding fashion. It also team loaded with great shooters to 30.4% from outside, so in theory it should have the blueprint to make in-roads in this series.

The Nuggets will need to break through a hard-nosed Timberwolves rim defense, and has been cooking around the restricted area of late, and they had great practice for this series in holding a solid shooting side at bay.

FINAL TIMBERWOLVES-NUGGETS PICK & PREDICTION

While there's plenty to like about the first round for the Nuggets, who dispatched of one of the most under-seeded teams in the West with just one loss, I do think the Timberwolves are a different beast.

Denver hasn't shot the 3 all that well and will run into a team which is among the best in basketball at defending the arc. Inside, too, Minnesota ranked second this season on defense and shouldn't afford Denver the number of easy buckets it was finding against the Lakers.

We can also expect some regression in the rebounding numbers here for Denver, who was always going to have a leg up on L.A. there given how the season went. Minnesota ranked eighth in rebounding rate this season, leaning on the efforts of Rudy Gobert, and should turn this series into a highly-contentious one.

I think the Timberwolves will present the Nuggets with a plethora of questions to answer, and while Denver may wind up answering them all with flying colors it won't happen right away. Minnesota performed well in Denver this year and seemed to match the Nuggets in every department through the four games they played. I think it will cover the spread here, and I give the visitors an excellent chance at stealing away Game 1.

FINAL TIMERWOLVES-NUGGETS PICK & PREDICTION: MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES +4.5 (-109)

To keep yourself updated on the newest happenings, be sure to check out our Betting News Section. We've organized all the updates so you can find all you need, in one convenient location.

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