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Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets: betting odds and predictions for May 6

Publish Date: 05/06/2024
Fact checked by: Allan Howe

The Minnesota Timberwolves' offensive tear continued in an inspired Game 1 win over the Denver Nuggets on Saturday and they'll now attempt to keep the production up against a weary Denver defense in Game 2.

With the status of Rudy Gobert up in the air, however, the Timberwolves may not be able to expect the same sort of dominance from their defense in the frontcourt as they enjoyed in Game 1. The interior defense helped turn the tide in that one, but if Gobert misses this one can the Timberwolves find enough here to at least make it a game?

Let's get into the best way to bet on Timberwolves vs. Nuggets on Monday, May 6.

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES VS. DENVER NUGGETS FANDUEL ODDS FOR MAY 6

MONEY LINE

  • MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES: +235
  • DENVER NUGGETS: -290

SPREAD

  • MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES: +6.5 (-108)
  • DENVER NUGGETS: -6.5 (-112)

OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)

  • OVER 207.5 (-110)
  • UNDER 207.5 (-110)

BEST ODDS FOR MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES VS. DENVER NUGGETS

  • The best odds on the Minnesota Timberwolves are over at Caesars, where you'll find Timberwolves +6.5 (-105).
  • Denver is being offered as a 6.5-point favorite across the board, with the best odds on Nuggets -6.5 (-110) at BetMGM.
  • The best odds on the Over are at DraftKings, offering Over 207.5 (-110). You'll find the best odds on the Under at BetRivers, who are hanging Under 208.5 (-112).

 

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES VS. DENVER NUGGETS INJURY REPORT

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES INJURY REPORT

  • RUDY GOBERT - QUESTIONABLE - PERSONAL REASONS

DENVER NUGGETS INJURY REPORT

  • JAMAL MURRAY - QUESTIONABLE - CALF

WHY MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES WILL COVER THE SPREAD

We are waiting to see what's going to happen with Rudy Gobert, who may miss this game due to the birth of his child. That's totally up in the air, which is why this line currently sits where it does as of this writing.

Should he play, though, the Timberwolves should have an excellent chance to match what we saw in the first game of this series. Minnesota did split the season series with Denver, but one of those wins did come on the road, where it shot a fantastic 37.9% from deep in the two contests. It followed that up with a 40.7% shooting night from 3 in Game 1, something that should have been expected if you chose to read into what we saw during the regular season.

The Nuggets did manage to hold the Lakers' shooters at bay in the first round, but that performance could have been somewhat misleading given the Lakers did struggle to shoot the 3 down the stretch and left plenty of points out there on the floor by missing open jumpers. On the flip side, the Timberwolves' stellar 3-point defense was nowhere to be found in Game 1, but with the way they played against the Suns it's certainly in the cards here that Denver cools off a bit.

The biggest thing going for Minnesota, which helped it survive that shooting night, is its excellent rim defense. That obviously looks a bit weaker without Gobert, so here's to hoping he plays.

WHY DENVER NUGGETS WILL COVER THE SPREAD

Denver really struggled to shoot the 3 against the Lakers, so to see a shooting night up over 40% in Game 1 was encouraging. If it can post that number against the Timberwolves, it should have no issues remaining in games, and if Gobert doesn't play in this one there's a clear path to victory with the rebounding discrepancy that was present in Game 1 falling by a wide margin.

The Nuggets did a great job in slowing the Lakers from 3 in the last series, and if you are a believe in them here you'll simply be resting on their laurels from weeks past. Shooting is a tricky thing with numbers often fluctuating game-to-game, and if the Timberwolves begin to miss a bit the Nuggets offense should be ready to pounce after putting up a rather quiet, yet respectable, 115.2 offensive rating versus one of the best defenses in basketball.

They'll need more out of their interior scorers to win this game, something that's going to be tricky against arguably the best defensive frontcourt in the NBA, but again the status of Gobert will likely have a lot to do with the outcome here. Put very simply, Denver can easily cover the spread if Gobert has to miss this one.

FINAL TIMBERWOLVES-NUGGETS PICK & PREDICTION

It almost feels you are betting with or against Mother Nature with this one. Minnesota's got a very clear way to not only cover in this game but win the series thanks to the efforts of Gobert who did well to neutralize Nikola Jokic in Game 1 and open up a comical gap between the two teams in the rebounding department.

I think this number, even without Gobert, may be too large given the Nuggets probably aren't as strong against the 3 as the first round would lead you to believe. That series was largely predicated on the Lakers' ability to knock down shots from outside given their glaring weakness inside, and what we saw was a continuation of a sluggish end to the year in shooting the ball.

Minnesota may not be as strong inside without Gobert, but it will have more than enough down low on both sides of the ball to get this done. Naz Reid single-handedly took the game into his own hands in Game 1 and will likely have plenty more playing time here in Game 2 should Gobert be absent. Yes, he may not provide the edge defensively that Gobert does, but he almost entirely makes up for it with his offensive prowess.

Bet on Denver to continue regressing against a stronger opponent in the second round. It can still win rather comfortably and fail to cover.

FINAL TIMERWOLVES-NUGGETS PICK & PREDICTION: MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES +6.5 (-110)

To keep yourself updated on the newest happenings, be sure to check out our Betting News Section. We've organized all the updates so you can find all you need, in one convenient location.

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