Thursday Night Football Best Bets: Steelers vs. Browns Odds & Picks (Oct. 1)

Week 4 of the 2026 NFL Season gets underway tonight on Thursday Night Football with a classic division rivalry game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns. Rivalry games are always intense, adding another layer to predicting the TNF Best Bets for this game. Expectations were low for both teams entering the season, making it a bit surprising that both enter this game at 2-1.

Improving to 3-1 could give the winner a huge confidence boost heading into Week 5. So — who’s going to win?

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I’ll try to answer that question in my preview and picks for today’s TNF Best Bets. But first, let’s check out the betting line for the game.

Week 4 Thursday Night Football Odds: Steelers vs. Browns

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Here is the betting line for tonight’s Steelers vs. Browns game with odds via FanDuel:

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns

• Spread: Pittsburgh -2.5 (-120) | Cleveland +2.5 (-102)
• Moneyline: Pittsburgh -142 | Cleveland +120
• Total: O/U 37.5 (-112/-108)

The Steelers come into this game with a 58.66% chance of winning, while the Browns have a 45.45% chance. If your first reaction to that is “That’s it? Surely the Steelers should be favored by more than 2.5 points, right? Well …

You’ll probably agree with how the public betting breaks down, with 79% of moneyline tickets and 97% of the handle going on the visiting Steelers. However, when it comes to the spread, many bettors seem to think this could be a close game, with 45% of the tickets and 41% of the handle on the Browns.

Most still favor the Steelers, but after Week 3, you’d think the numbers would be higher in their favor. Then again, the Browns are on a two-game win streak right now. Maybe they aren’t as bad as we thought? Any team can win on any given day, of course. So, let’s discuss who could win this TNF game tonight.

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TNF Best Bets: Steelers vs. Browns (Oct. 1)

One crucial element of this game is a little tough to grasp: quarterback play. In Cleveland, we have Deshaun Watson, a much-maligned quarterback who hasn't played consistently well since his days in Houston (2017-2020). On the other side of the line, we have a 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers, a surefire first-ballot Hall of Famer. However, since leaving Green Bay, his play has been spotty.

Can fans count on either quarterback?

Strangely enough, the better of the two this season (according to the stats and metrics) has been Watson. He’s completed 56 of 82 passes (68.3%) for 587 yards and five touchdowns with one interception. Watson currently ranks No.14 in quarterback rating at 104.1. Rodgers ranks lower at No. 24 with a QB rating of 81. He’s thrown for more yards than Watson (700), but has a lower completion percentage (58.4%), fewer touchdowns (four), and more interceptions (two).

Watson has better overall stats and a better rating, but PFF grades Rodgers as having played better to date. PFF has given him a 68.4 grade so far this season (No. 20), with Watson coming in at No. 31 (54.0).

Both quarterbacks have played well enough to lead their teams to 2-1 starts. But both did so with plenty of help. Pittsburgh’s defense ranks No. 7 in yards allowed (305.7 per game) and No. 11 in points (20). Rodgers flashed his former brilliance in last week’s 30-27 win over Cincinnati (292 yards, four touchdowns, two interceptions).

After a disastrous game in Week 1, the Cleveland defense has stepped up. It held Baker Mayfield to under 200 yards passing in Week 2. While the Panthers gained 389 yards, the Browns defense forced four turnovers: an interception and three on downs.

My TNF Best Bets Pick: Cleveland ML at +2.5 (-102, FanDuel)

Part of me can’t believe I’m saying this, but I think the Browns can win. The deciding factor for me is the reliance on each quarterback. With their offensive line issues, the Steelers are struggling to run the ball (95.7 yards per game).

They did run the ball last week, with Jaylen Warren going for 127 yards, which allowed Aaron Rodgers to throw a season-low 34 times. But in Weeks 1 and 2, Rodgers had 40 and 39 passing attempts. If he was completing 65-70% of his passes, that would be great, but he’s completing just 58.4% this season.

Watson isn’t nearly as productive, but that’s okay because he is not making many mistakes. He’s completing more of the passes he does make and has just one interception. Cleveland's running game isn’t doing well (87.7 yards per game). If the defense doesn’t do its part, the Browns are in trouble. But the Steelers offense has not been great, so there is a chance Cleveland's defense can make enough plays … hence taking the points and not the moneyline.

Under 19.5 Points First Half (-115, FanDuel)

Neither team is playing particularly well this season, which is why I’m taking the UNDER here on the first-half total. I don’t expect either to do much in the passing game, which will certainly help keep the score down. The only offense I think we may see is Jaylen Warren running the ball well for the Steelers. But they’ll see several drives stall when they try to focus on the passing game.

Pittsburgh scored 13, 3, and 17 in the first half in Weeks 1-3. Cleveland scored 0, 6, and 3. So, even if Rodgers leads the Steelers on a couple of TD drives, the Browns' slow-starting offense will keep the score under 19.5 points.

Steelers First Quarter -1.5 (+128, FanDuel)

The Browns offense has been held scoreless in the first quarter in two of three games this season. I’d be surprised if they got off to a quicker start against a decent Steelers defense. Pittsburgh hasn’t been great in the first quarter, though it scored two touchdowns last week. But against this Browns defense, the Steelers should at least record a field goal in the first, if not a touchdown. Either way, they’ll cover a 1.5-point first-quarter spread.