Key Points
- Auburn, Duke, Florida, Houston are No. 1 Seeds Facing Big Expectations
- Only Two No. 16 Seeds Have Toppled No. 1 Seeds in Frist Round
- A No. 1 Seed has won the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament in Six of Last Seven Years
The NCAA tournament and experts expect the four No. 1 seeds to advance in the first round on Thursday and Friday. The start times and odds say so.
The tourney has schedule the four top seeds in early afternoon for their first round matchups. Oddsmakers have made all four top-seeders prohibitive favorites.
(Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)
Which begs the question: of the top teams in each of the four brackets, which is most likely to be eliminated from March Madness first?
Odds in this article are from DraftKings and BetMGM sportsbooks. Consult your favorite mobile betting app to find the odds best suited for your college hoops strategy.
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No. 1 Seed First Round Schedule
- Midwest: Houston (1) vs SIU Edwardsville (16), 2 PM EDT, Thursday March 20 on TBS
- South: Auburn (1) vs Alabama State (16), 2:50 PM EDT, Thursday, March 20 on CBS
- East: Duke (1) vs Mount St. Mary's (16), 2:50 PM EDT, Friday, March 21 on CBS
- West: Florida (1) vs Norfolk State (16), 6:50 PM EDT, Friday, March 21 on TNT
Odds for No. 1 vs No. 16 Matchups
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook unless otherwise noted:
- Houston (-20000) vs SIU Edwardsville (+3500)
- Auburn (-8000) vs Alabama State (+2200)
- Duke (No odds at press time) vs Mount St. Mary's
- Florida (-9000) vs Norfolk State (+2500)
All four No. 1 seeds are overwhelming favorites. That's because since 1985 when the tournament went to 64 teams, No. 1 seeds are 154-2 against No. 16 seeds.
You'd need to wager $20,000 on Houston to lose just to win $100. Conversely, a winning $100 wager on Southern Illinois University Edwardsville would net you $3,500.
This No. 1 Seed is Most Likely to Lose First
Defending Champs Lurking to Topple Gators
Have you noticed how the two-time defending champion Connecticut Huskies are getting little attention as they embark on an effort to threepeat? That's because UConn struggled this season to be a consistent winner on the court.
The Huskies were 23-10 and finished third in the Big East. The 10 losses are nearly as many as UConn lost in the previous two seasons combined.
Dan Hurley's team is a No. 8 seed waiting to face Florida if the Huskies can get past Oklahoma in round one on Friday in prime time. If the Gators and Huskies meet, it will take place on Sunday in round two. That matchup would be only the seventh meeting between the two schools. UConn is 5-1 against Florida historically, but would be an underdog.
Still, with the cantankerous and whining Hurley stalking the sideline, and with the Huskies' experience in March Madness working in its favor, we rate UConn as the team most likely to defeat a No. 1 seed in the second round.
Other possible second round matchups involvi9ng No. 1 seeds:
- Gonzaga (8) vs Houston
- Georgia (9) vs Houston
- Baylor (9) vs Duke
- Mississippi State (8) vs Duke
- Louisville (8) vs Auburn
- Creighton (9) vs Auburn
- Oklahoma (9) vs Florida
Of these potential second round games, we rate Oklahoma (0ver Florida) and Gonzaga (over Houston) as the most likely 2025 March Madness bracket breakers. But one man's bracket breaker is another man's opportunity, am I right?
When to Pick Against a No. 1 Seed
Your decision to jettison a No. 1 seed, to wipe it off your bracket, may be the difference between winning your March Madness pool and earning loud bragging rights, or being that guy who gets roasted for the next 11 months until you can redeem yourself in the next tournament.
In the most recent 10 tournaments, XXX.
Still, No. 1 seeds are at the top of the brackets for a reason: of the 39 national men's tournaments since 1985 (when the tourney grew to 64 teams), 25 were won by No. 1 seeds.
The selection committee appears to be getting better at ranking teams: since 2008, 13 of 17 champions have been a No. 1 seed.
However, note that in 39 64-team tournaments since 1985, only once has all four No. 1 seeds advanced to the Final Four. That was in 2008, when the Kansa Jayhawks, Memphis Tigers, North Carolina Tar Heels, and UCLA Bruins all carried their No. 1 status to the Final Four.
Last season, the tournament was won by a No. 1 seed: the UConn Huskies. However, it's unlikely that all of the top seeds will get to the final weekend of the tourney. Your task is picking which ones will be defeated, and when.
Region Rankings: Which No. 1 Seed has the Toughest Path?
Based on CBS Sports power rankings fueled by NET scores (a system used by the NCAA), the West region is the toughest top to bottom. In the west you have No. 1 seed Florida, No. 2 seed St. John's, No. 3 seed Texas Tech, and No. 4 seed Maryland.
Those four teams rate among the 11 best teams based on NET. That doesn't even mention No. 5 Memphis, which went 6-1 against Quad 1 opponents, and the aforementioned two-time champion UConn Huskies.
Coaches in the west region include Hurley, Rick Pitino (St. John's), Bill Self (No. 7 Kansas), and John Calipari (No. 10 Arkansas). The last three names are enshrined in the Basketball Hall of Fame.
All of those factors lead us to believe Florida is most likely to be the first No. 1 seed shuffled out of the tournament this March.
If looking for March Madness tournament schedules, matchup breakdowns, and expert picks, head to our
March Madness section.
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