Tua Tagovailoa Signs with Atlanta. Falcons' Super Bowl Odds for 2026–2027 NFL Season

The Tua Tagovailoa era is over in Miami, and he's the latest to sign a deal in NFL free agency. This time, the quarterback is headed to the Atlanta Falcons.

(Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

Back when Tagovailoa was selected No. 5 overall by the Miami Dolphins in the 2020 NFL Draft, Tua was viewed as the franchise's next quarterback. Six years later, Miami confirmed the release of Tagovailoa, and the divorce is official. However, that doesn't mean the Dolphins are 100 percent off the hook.

Back in July 2024, Tagovailoa signed a four-year, $212.4 million extension with the Dolphins. Following his release, the Dolphins will be liable for $99.2 million in dead money, signaling an NFL record. In other words, Miami let him walk for nearly $100 million. In addition, they are responsible for his $31.8 million salary in 2027, and he is due a fully guaranteed $54 million in 2026 (minus his salary with the Falcons).

The Falcons released veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins. Subsequently, Atlanta signed Tagovailoa to a one-year $1.3 million contract. A one-year prove-it deal, Tagovailoa gets the veteran minimum.

Are you in search of further NFL and sports betting promotions? We have compiled a list of the best sports betting offers here. 

Why Tua Tagovailoa Signed With the Falcons

Having played just one fully healthy season, Tagovailoa's career has been largely defined by injuries. Having suffered concussions in 2022 and 2024, Tagovailoa's career was in jeopardy, and retirement rumors swirled. In 78 regular-season games, he recorded 18,166 passing yards, 120 touchdowns, and 59 interceptions with the Dolphins.

Named to the NFL Pro Bowl in 2023, Tagovailoa led the NFL in passing yards (4,624) and arguably completed his best season with the Dolphins. Recording 29 touchdowns and 14 interceptions, he also led the league in passer rating. This week, Miami said goodbye to Tua, a four-year captain who holds the highest completion percentage (68%) in team history. Shortly after, the blue and orange signed Malik Willis as their next signal-caller.

In his six seasons in South Beach, Tagovailoa made just one playoff appearance in 2023. In 2025, he posted 2,660 passing yards, 20 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions in 14 regular-season games. Throughout his time in Miami, Tua led the Dolphins to a 44-32 record as a starter.

Tua Tagovailoa Looks Ahead In Atlanta

Following his divorce from the Dolphins, several teams could have used Tagovailoa's services. Among those teams were the New York Jets, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Minnesota Vikings. Ultimately, Tagovailoa wasted no time and decided to restart his career with the Falcons.

The Falcons were favored in Tua's next-team odds, along with the Jets. So the question remains: Why did the quarterback sign with Atlanta?

In a press release by the Falcons, Tagovailoa didn't hesitate to admit his past mistakes. While he didn't specify why he chose Atlanta, he's optimistic about the future.

"Based off of what happened last year, I knew I needed to play better," Tagovailoa said in a press release. "I knew I needed to play better, but I think this is a great opportunity to be able to come here and get a good reset."

Let's discuss the Tua Tagovailoa signing and how his decision impacts the Atlanta Falcons outlook and Super Bowl LXI betting odds for the 2026–2027 NFL season.

Best Brand

BetMGM Promo

Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win

Get bonus now

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET (Available in the US) 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY) 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). 21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. See BetMGM.com for Terms. First Bet Offer for new customers only (if applicable). Subject to eligibility requirements. Bonus bets are non-withdrawable. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. Promotional offers not available in Mississippi, New York, Ontario, or Puerto Rico.

Best Bonus

FanDuel Promo

New Users – Bet $5 Get $250 If Your Bet Wins!

Get bonus now

Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit RG Help . Call 1-888-789-7777 or visit Helpline and Chat – CONNECTICUT COUNCIL (CT). "Hope is here. GamblingHelpLineMA.org or call (800) 327-5050 for 24/7 support. 21+ and present in MA. Connect with a PlayWell Advisor at PlayWell.org. Visit Home (MD). Call 1-877-8HOPE-NY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY) 21+ (18+ D.C., KY, WY) and present in select states (for KS, in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino). First online real money wager only. $5 first deposit required. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable bonus bets which expire 7 days after receipt. Restrictions apply. See terms at FanDuel Sportsbook

Newcomer

DraftKings Promo

New Customers: Bet $5+ Get $300 in Bonus Bets Instantly

Get bonus now

GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/PR/WY). Void in NH/OR/ONT/PR. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino (KS). Pass-thru of per wager tax may apply in IL. 1 per new DraftKings Sportsbook customer. Must register new account to receive reward Token. Must select Token BEFORE placing min. $5 bet to receive $300 in Bonus Bets if your bet wins. Min. -500 odds req. Token and Bonus Bets are single-use and non-withdrawable. Bet must settle by and Token expires 5/3/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Bonus Bets expire in 7 days (168 hours). Stake removed from payout. Terms: Promos | DraftKings Sportsbook . Ends 4/26/26 at 11:59 PM ET.

How Tua Tagovailoa's Signing Impacts Falcons Super Bowl Betting Odds (FanDuel)

Super Bowl Odds

• Before signing Tua Tagovailoa: +5000
• After signing Tua Tagovailoa: +7500

As of Feb. 10, the Falcons were priced at +5000 odds to win Super Bowl LXI. Currently, they have odds of +7500 to win it next season. Along with Tagovailoa, Atlanta re-signed defensive tackle LaCale London and signed Jake Bailey (punter), Jahan Dotson (wide receiver), along with Christian Harris (linebacker) and Austin Hooper (tight end).

Those signings, in my opinion, aren't enough to move the needle. In fact, their Super Bowl odds have lengthened. Following NFL free agency, the Falcons lost several players, including Tyler Allgeier, Cousins, and Darnell Mooney, among others.

The question remains: who will be named the Falcons' starting quarterback? Tagovailoa will have the opportunity to compete with Michael Penix Jr., who's recovering from ACL surgery. While Penix Jr.'s timeline is unknown, according to ESPN, Falcons GM Ian Cunningham made it clear the starting job remains wide open.

Overall, the Falcons signed Tagovailoa at a low price, and it's a relatively low-risk move. With low expectations set, the Falcons play in a relatively weak NFC South. Not one team finished above .500 last season, and there was a three-way tie between the Panthers, Buccaneers, and the Falcons. Narrowly missing the playoffs, Atlanta once again extended its eight-year playoff drought.

Last season under Penix Jr. and Cousins, the Falcons' offense struggled as they ranked No. 20 in offensive rating. While Bijan Robinson and the run game were solid, the team ranked No. 21 in offensive passing DVOA. That said, Penix Jr. delivered 1,982 passing yards, nine touchdowns, and three interceptions in nine regular-season games.

Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson Could Thrive With Tua at Quarterback

That said, Atlanta averaged just 207.2 passing yards per game and 3,523 yards of offense. Plus, they ranked on the lower end with 20.8 points per game.

When discussing the quality of play, Penix Jr. ranked No. 27 in total EPA, No. 28 in EPA/play, and No. 30 in Pass EPA. Outside of completion and success rate, Penix Jr. wasn't exactly impressive.

There's no question that Tagovailoa is fresh off his worst NFL season, but there have been doubts about his arm strength. Tua is known as an accurate quarterback and even completed 68 percent of passes last season. He is a short-throw type quarterback who may fare well with tight end Kyle Pitts. When it comes to Drake London, maybe not so much. That may be an issue if Atlanta is looking to make big throws downfield.

It's hard to say at this time which quarterback is best to lead this team. Penix Jr. undoubtedly has the stronger arm but less experience. If they are looking to throw outside, Penix Jr. may be the guy. After all, it all comes down to head coach Kevin Stefanski's system. Perhaps this will be a run-heavy team with a middle-of-the-field attack. Perhaps this will be Pitts' breakout season.

Why The Falcons Can Win The NFC South (+260 FanDuel)

While the offense is questionable at quarterback, the Falcons have some solid defensive pieces in Jalon Walker, A.J. Terrell Jr., and Jessie Bates III, among others.

Overall, I'm not expecting the Falcons to win the Super Bowl, and neither do oddsmakers (+7500). With similar odds to the Steelers and Giants, it's unlikely, but you never know. What's more realistic is a chance to win the NFC South. Holding the second-best odds to win the division (+260), oddsmakers view the Falcons as favorites over the Saints and Panthers. Even following the departure of Mike Evans, it's the Buccaneers' (+165) division to lose.

It's worth giving Tua a shot here, considering Stefanski is new at the helm. It helps that the Falcons play indoors and Tagovailoa gets to stay in a warm climate. It also helps that Bijan Robinson is one of the best receiving backs in the NFL, so Tua may thrive with the short passes in the backfield.

• Tua Tagovailoa's only game in Atlanta came in 2025, where he delivered four touchdowns and 205 passing yards. While the quarterback situation is unknown, I like where the Falcons are headed. It's worth a shot to sprinkle half a unit on them to win the division, at a minimum.