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March Madness: UConn vs. San Diego State predictions and odds for Mar. 28

Publish Date:03/28/2024
Fact checked by: Allan Howe
Key Points
  • The UConn Huskies and the San Diego State Aztecs will matchup for the first time since the 2023 NCAA Championship game.
  • UConn is 2-0 against SDSU all time.
  • The Huskies are 24-12-0 against the spread this season.
  • The Aztecs are 14-19-1 against the spread this year.

(Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)

The Sweet 16 is here, and there's a highly anticipated matchup between the UConn Huskies (33-3) and the San Diego State Aztecs (26-10). Both teams are set to face off tonight in Boston in the Eastern Region.

If you're betting on this matchup, there's history between the Huskies and the Aztecs. Tonight's event is the 2023 NCAA Championship Finals rematch between UConn and San Diego State. In their first finals appearance in history, the Aztecs conceded to the Huskies, 76-59. Ranked no. 5 for the second consecutive year, the Aztecs will face UConn, who are the no.1 overall seed in this year's tournament.

Out for blood, this is very much a redemption game for San Diego State. This time, the Aztecs will face a more elite, stronger, and mentally poised Connecticut Huskies team.

Entering their fourth consecutive March Madness appearance, the Aztecs will play in back-to-back Sweet 16 games for the first time in the program's history.

26-10 on the season, the Aztecs finished 5th in the Mountain West conference, behind,

  • Utah State
  • Nevada
  • Boise State
  • UNLV

One of the more surprising conferences of the year, San Diego State racked up some impressive victories over Gonzaga, Utah State, Saint Mary's, and UNLV. Similar to last season, the Aztecs remain one of the most pristine teams on defense.

UCONN DEFEATED SAN DIEGO STATE IN THE 2023 NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

While the Aztecs have been a title contender for quite some time, with a 104-31 record under head coach Brian Dutcher over the last four seasons, although they finished with a decent record, they conceded to New Mexico, 68-61 in the Mountain West championship title game.

Don't let that conference championship loss fool you. The Aztecs are in the Sweet 16 for a reason. While some would argue they had an easier road with victories over UAB and Yale in the first two rounds, they have a 32-point differential over their first two March Madness matchups. Now in the third round, they have their toughest matchup yet against the Huskies.

Out of 16 teams left in the contest, the Aztecs are the least favorites with +7500 to win the title.

For Connecticut, they are the overall number-one seed in the NCAA. Throning themselves Big East conference champions for the first time since 2011, UConn has remained the team to beat. With colossal victories over Stetson and Northwestern, Connecticut has an astonishing 56-point differential over the first two rounds. While the odds have shifted slightly, they remain the favorites to win it all at +210.

ODDS ARE CURRENT AS OF MAR. 28, AT 2:00 P.M.

MARCH MADNESS: UCONN HUSKIES VS. SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS FANDUEL ODDS FOR MAR. 28

MONEY LINE

  • UCONN HUSKIES: -800
  • SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS:+540

SPREAD

  • UCONN HUSKIES: -11.5 (-105)
  • SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS: +11.5 (-115)

OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)

  • OVER: 137.5 (-105)
  • UNDER: 137.5 (-115)

BEST MARCH MADNESS FANDUEL ODDS FOR UCONN HUSKIES VS. SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS

  • The UConn Huskies are 11.5-point favorites against the San Diego State Aztecs. FanDuel currently has the best odds at (-115).
  • The San Diego Aztecs are the underdogs by 11.5 points to cover the spread tonight. Again, FanDuel currently has the best odds at -105 for San Diego State to cover the spread
  • FanDuel Sportsbook currently has the best odds for the total, which is set at -115 for the under, and -105 for the over.
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UCONN HUSKIES VS. SAN DIEGO AZTECS INJURY REPORT

UCONN HUSKIES INJURY REPORT

  • None

SAN DIEGO STATE  INJURY REPORT

  •  None

*ATS = Against the Spread

*O/U = Over/Under

Category Statistics
Last 5 Games 5-0
Last 10 Games 9-1
ATS Record 24-12-0
O/U Record 16-19-1
Last 5 Games ATS 4-1
Last 10 Games ATS 8-2
Last 5 Games O/U 1-4
Last 10 Games O/U 3-7
Offensive Efficiency 1.198 (1st)
Defensive Efficiency .938 (8th)
Points Per Game 81.6 (21st)
Opponent Points Per Game 63.9 (12th)
Three-Point Percentage 36.1% (60th)
Rebounds Per Game 38.5 (45th)
Last 10 Games ATS Wins Villanova (-11.5), Seton Hall (-15.5), Marquette (-5, -9.5), Providence (-9), Xavier (-15), Stetson (-26.5), Northwestern (-13)

*ATS = Against the Spread

*O/U = Over/Under

Category Statistics
Last 5 Games 4-1
Last 10 Games 6-4
ATS Record 14-19-1
O/U Record 18-16
Last 5 Games ATS 2-3
Last 10 Games ATS 3-7
Last 5 Games O/U 3-2
Last 10 Games O/U 4-6
Offensive Efficiency 1.065 (105th)
Defensive Efficiency .959 (29th)
Points Per Game 74.7 (145th)
Opponent Points Per Game 66.3 (28th)
Three-Point Percentage 31.7% (300th)
Rebounds Per Game 38 (59th)
Last 10 Games ATS Wins Fresno State (-13), Utah State (-5), Yale (-5.5)

HEAD-TO-HEAD STATS: 

Season Matchups:

  • Game 1: Connecticut 74, San Diego State 67 (UConn +2, over 131) (2011)
  • Game 2: Connecticut 76, San Diego State 59 (UConn -6,5, over 130.5) (National Championship game)

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SPREAD: UCONN HUSKIES -11.5

  • -11.5 point spread (-115) on FanDuel

I'm riding the hot hand, and the UConn Huskies have covered the spread well and beyond in this year's NCAA Tournament. Now they face the Aztecs once again, who have one of the most stifling defenses in the nation. While the Huskies are reigning champions, this team is elite from top to bottom.

Led by head coach Dan Hurley, Connecticut is 24-12 against the spread, and 2-0 covering in the tournament. They've been blowing teams out left and right, and have an impressive 56-point differential since the start of the tournament.

11.5 is a large spread, and the Huskies are continually favored by a large spread every matchup. In their 75-58 victory over Northwestern, Hurley's Huskies were absolutely suffocating on defense.

Limiting the Wildcats to just 37.3 percent from the field, Donovan Clingan and company were a force in the paint, limiting Northwestern to several inside looks. While the Huskies have a ton of talent, Donovan Clingan stole the show with a career-high eight blocks.

Although there's always a possibility of an upset, UConn not only held Northwestern to 58 points, they've held their last three opponents to under 60 points. A top-ten defensive team, the Huskies are limiting their opponents to just 63.9 points per game this year. With +210 to win it all, the Huskies remain an offensive juggernaut of a team.

Putting up 83 points through the tournament, UConn is shooting 54.9 percent from the floor. With one of the best backcourts in the tournament, Tristen Newton and Cam Spencer provide the spark the Huskies desperately need on the offensive end. While Spencer is shooting over 40 percent from beyond the arc, and averages over one steal per game.

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SAN DIEGO STATE IS AN ELITE DEFENSIVE TEAM

The Aztecs may present some challenges for the Huskies on the defensive end. One of the most elite teams on defense, the Aztecs are holding opponents to 66.3 points per game. Led by guards Darrion Trammell and Lamont Butler, the Aztecs hold their opponents to just 30.8 percent from deep, and 40.3 percent from the field.

41st in the nation with an +8.4 point differential, San Diego State held UAB and Yale to 65 points and under. Regarding their 85-57 victory over Yale, they held the Bulldogs to under 40 percent from the floor and three-point range.

Similar to Connecticut, they remain a top-ten adjusted defensive efficient team. According to KenPom, the Aztecs allow an incredible 93.5 points per 100 possessions, which could give them leverage in this game.

Overall, San Diego State destroyed Yale in the second round. However, they barely skid by UAB, and declared victory with a four-point margin. Tied until the final 40 seconds of the game, it was Jaedon LeDee's free throws that put the game away. While I'm not taking anything away from UAB, the fact they struggled early on could be a warning sign.

UCONN'S DEFENSE WILL BE TOO MUCH

Although I can't predict the outcome of this game, I do believe the Huskies defense will be overpowering for the third straight game. After what I saw Donovan Clingan do to Northwestern, it makes me believe the Huskies will be just as dominant again. If you didn't know, the Aztecs are one of the worst three-point shooting teams per game (31.7 %) will ranks them 300 in the nation.

While they put up year 75 buckets per game, they will need to find ways to score inside, and I simply cannot envision that happening.

UConn is undefeated against San Diego State and covered the spread in their last two matchups. Defeating the Aztecs 76-59 in the 2023 national championship game, I expect a similar outcome tonight. Along with Houston and Tennessee, the Huskies fall within the top ten in opponent three-point percentage (39.5 %), and 31.3 percent from deep.

They are 11th in the nation in blocks per game (5.4), expect their defense to be out in full force tonight. Overall, the Aztecs have only been capable of covering the spread in three of the last ten games.

TOTALS: UNDER 137.5 POINTS

  • -115 on FanDuel

137.5 points is a very low amount, and for that reason, I had to decipher if it made sense to take the under. To put it simply, both teams are extremely dominant on the offensive end, and the total is seven points higher than last year's championship game. Speaking of the national championship game, the game total was 135, and I'm expecting this to come close to 137.5 total points.

Overall, the Huskies shot 13 percent from deep against Northwestern, which is slightly worrisome.

While their last two matchups have hit the over, it's important to analyze the lines where they are currently versus in the past. Over the last ten games,  UConn is 3-7, hitting the over just three times. For San Diego State, they are 4-6, hitting the over in four of ten matchups.

We all knew the Huskies defense was elite, however, we especially saw it last game against Northwestern. Over the last three games, neither team has allowed opponents to put up over 68 points per game. For that reason, with -115 odds, I'm taking the under here.

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