Sports Betting Sites / UConn vs. Stetson: betting predictions and odds for Mar. 22
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UConn vs. Stetson: betting predictions and odds for Mar. 22

Publish Date:03/21/2024
Fact checked by: Allan Howe
Key Points
  • The UConn Huskies are ranked no.1. since the 2008-2009 season.
  • The 26.5 point-spread is the largest in the NCAA First-Round.
  • The Huskies are the reigning National Champions, and will face no. 16 seed Stetson Hatters.
  • UConn is 9-1 in their last 10 games, in which they've covered the spread in the last six of seven victories.

 (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)

March Madness has returned, and it's the most exciting time in college hoops. In this article, I'll break down the Connecticut Huskies (31-3) and the Stetson Hatters (22-12), who will match up in the first round of the east region.

The Connecticut Huskies are the real deal, and I'm not just saying that as an alum. UConn is one of the most exciting teams in the bracket, and it's going to take a special team to take them down.

Heavily favored to repeat as champions, head coach Dan Hurley and the Huskies have the bracket laid out.  Could Stetson become the historical team that upsets Connecticut in the first round? It's unlikely, however, let's break it down.

The Hatters and Huskies will match up for the first time in history, this time at the Barclays Center, located in Brooklyn, New York. While Stetson will venture out of the warm weather in Florida, this matchup will more likely than not feature a large amount of Husky fans.

Although Connecticut has become a bonafide powerhouse, they earned their first Big-East Championship tournament victory for the first time since 2011.

Stetson won their first Atlantic Sun Conference tournament for the first time in the program's history. The Huskies are looking to repeat as champions for the first time since the 2006-2007 Florida Gators.

The Connecticut Huskies are ranked no.1 for the first time since 2008-2009

It was largely expected the UConn Huskies would for sure regress after their championship run last season. However, they finished even stronger, surrendering only three times to Kansas, Seton Hall, and Creighton. With an 18-2 conference record, the Huskies managed to prevail, despite losing Adama Sanogo, Jordan Hawkins, and Andre Jackson to the 2023 NBA Draft.

Suffering only one loss since Dec. 20, UConn went on to defeat Xavier and St. Johns in the Big East Tournament. Similar to how they've played all year, the Huskies blew out Marquette by 16 points to win the conference title. In that matchup, center Donovan Clingan grabbed a career-high 16 boards, and has been vital to Connecticuts run.

Last year, UConn managed to win it all as a no.4 seed. And for the first time since 2009, the Huskies are ranked no.1 heading into the tournament. Finishing out the season 8-2, UConn racked up key victories over Gonzaga, UNC, and Texas. +420 to raise another trophy, the Huskies will kick off their 37th NCAA tournament.

Stetson will make their first NCAA Tournament appearance

Ranked the lowest seed, no. 16 Stetson Hatters have quite the task ahead of them. Not only are they making their first-ever tournament appearance, but they will also face the top team in the nation.

They've had much success, defeating Queens University, Jacksonville, and Austin Peay for the ASUN title. Although they've had much success in their conference, the Hatters will have their biggest test on Friday.

+30000 to upset the Huskies, the Hatters finished out the season 8-2. While they punched their way into the tournament, they took a beating to Houston in the regular season, and have their backs against the wall. With +500000 odds to win the NCAA Tournament, Stetson will need to rely on their offense to make history against UConn.

For those interested in betting on this matchup, I've compiled all the necessary data, odds, and statistics to facilitate informed betting predictions for Friday, Mar. 22.




  • UCONN HUSKIES: -3000


  • UCONN HUSKIES: -26.5 (-110)
  • STETSON HATTERS: +26.5 (-110)


  • OVER: 145.5 (-115)
  • UNDER: 145.5 (-105)


  • The UConn Huskies are 26.5-point favorites against the Stetson Hatters.  FanDuel currently has the best odds at (110).
  • The Stetson Hatters are the underdogs by 26.5 to cover the spread tonight. Again, FanDuel currently has the best odds at -110 for Stetson to cover the spread
  • FanDuel Sportsbook currently has the best odds for the total, which is set at -105 for the under, and -115 for the over.
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  • NONE


  • NONE

*ATS = Against the Spread

*O/U = Over/Under

Category Statistics
Last 5 Games 5-0
Last 10 Games 9-1
ATS Record 22-12-0
O/U Record 16-17-1
Last 5 Games ATS 4-1
Last 10 Games ATS 8-2
Last 5 Games O/U 1-4
Last 10 Games O/U 4-6
Offensive Efficiency 1.196 (1st)
Defensive Efficiency .946 (15th)
Points Per Game 81.5 (22nd)
Opponent Points Per Game 64.4 (15th)
Three-Point Percentage 36% (35th)
Rebounds Per Game 38.5 (45)
Last 10 Games ATS Wins DePaul (-24.5), Marquette (-7.5, -5, -9.5), Villanova (-11.5), Seton Hall (-15.5), Providence (-9), Xavier (-15)

*ATS = Against the Spread

*O/U = Over/Under

Category Statistics
Last 5 Games 4-1
Last 10 Games 8-2
ATS Record 16-15-0
O/U Record 13-18-0
Last 5 Games ATS 2-3
Last 10 Games ATS 5-5
Last 5 Games O/U 3-2
Last 10 Games O/U 5-5
Offensive Efficiency 1.091 (54th)
Defensive Efficiency 1.101 (332nd)
Points Per Game 77.5 (75th)
Opponent Points Per Game 72.8 (213th)
Three-Point Percentage 37% (28th)
Rebounds Per Game 34.5 (221st)
Last 10 Games ATS Wins Bellmont (-3), Eastern Kentucky(+2), Kennesaw State (-3), Jacksonville (-1), Queens University (-6)

Spread: UConn Huskies -26.5

  •  (-110) FanDuel

Again, I try not to be biased, especially since I graduated from the University of Connecticut. UConn is a scary team on both ends of the floor, and when you break it down, both of these teams aren't comparable on paper or their play style. Not much has changed from their championship run, and they are looking more seasoned than ever.

A 26.5-point spread is large, especially in the game of basketball. With the lines currently, it may be the highest spread in the first round. However, the UConn Huskies money line is simply too high at -10000 odds. While we've seen some strange events occur in March, you would need to risk a high wager even to see a return. Although I believe the Huskies will win this game outright, I've stayed away from the money line since there's not enough value.

Overall, Hurley's Huskies are 22-12 against the spread this season, which is remarkable.  Sure they've taken a few losses, however, this team has blown out their opponents all season long. Boasting an incredible +17-point differential, UConn remains one of the top teams in terms of point margin, and for this reason, I picked them to cover the spread.

Since Dan Hurley took over for Kevin Ollie in 2018, UConn was still a member of the AAC. Moving back to the Big East in 2020, he's transformed this program into an offensive powerhouse. Ever since the conference change, they've appeared in four consecutive NCAA Tournaments.

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When I say UConn is elite, they are ELITE. Not only are they the top team in terms of offensive rating, they have stifling defense. While UConn set all sorts of defensive records last season, they've managed to place in the top third this year.

When it comes to Dan Hurley, he bleeds UConn basketball, and he's gathered talent and managed to get this entire program to buy in. With that said, they are highly ranked in several statistical categories, including points, rebounds per game, three-point, and field goal percentage.

Top to bottom, the Huskies are a well-oiled machine, led by All-American guard, Tristan Newton.

With the core of,

  • Newton
  • Cam Spencer
  • Alex Karaban
  • Donovan Clingan
  • Stephon Castle

there are very few holes in this roster. While it's a tough task to repeat as Champions, I do believe it will be a rough outing for Stetson.

Again, there's a reason why Connecticut's always been favored for every single matchup. With that said, I wasn't kidding when I mentioned that the Huskies blow out teams. With a total 137-point differential in their first four matchups of the season, Connecticut defeated UNC by 11 points. That's impressive in itself, especially since UNC is entering the NCAA Tournament as a no.1. seed.

The largest spread they were favored by and covered was a 39 point-spread against Stonehill. Initially favored by 3.5 against Gonzaga, the Huskies defeated the Bulldogs by 13 points. The fact that UConn outlasted Creighton by 14 points, makes me believe they'll stay on the same trajectory this afternoon. After all, they did defeat Iona by 24 points in the first round of last year's tournament.


First of all, congratulations to Stetson, who punched their way to their first NCAA tournament, behind Jalen Blackmon and Stephan Swenson. While their defense ranks one of the worst in all of college basketball, they've managed to put up a decent season offensively. Shooting the ball at a high clip beyond the arc, the Hatters finished the season 37 percent from downtown.

Putting up a solid 7.5 points per game, the Hatters find themselves within a respectable range on the offensive front. In fact, Blackmon finished with 43 points in the conference final and led them to a narrow 94-91 victory over Austin Peay.

Their success is incredible, and I'm not taking anything away from that. However, this is the biggest stage, and the Hatters are no longer competing in the ASUN Conference. Given they played just one ranked team, Houston destroyed them, 79-48, with a 31-point differential.

Given Houston is the top defensive team in the nation, they forced 23 turnovers on Stetson. Since UConn forces 10.7 turnovers per game, I expect them to play full throttle. After all, UConn is an elite perimeter defending team, allowing opponents to shoot just 31.7 percent from deep.


For Stetson, they rank middle of the pack in terms of point differential, at +4.7, and their defense will ultimately be their downfall. Ranking 342nd in adjusted defensive efficiency, they meet not only the no.1. seed in the East, but the most pristine team on the offensive end.

When we look at the matchup, a blowout is fairly likely, especially when you compare a no.1. and no. 16 seed. One solid reason why UConn can cover is the fact that Stetson remains one of the worst rebounding teams in the nation.

Yes, you read that correctly. Stetson ranks 342nd in defensive efficiency. This alone is all the reason why Connecticut can cover in round one of March Madness. With this, the Huskies have the potential to score higher than their 81-game point total.

With that, Clingan and company will shred them inside the paint. Overall, you simply can't compare the physicality of these two teams.

I do think the line is fairly inflated with a 26.5-point point spread. However, covering the spread in 8 of the last 10 games is enormous, and Stetson's offense can't be justified. The ASUN is one of the weakest divisions in NCAA, and won't put up those numbers against UConn.

I trust the Huskies to cover a large spread, given the fact they are the most balanced teams in the tournament. Some will say UConn failed to cover large point spreads against New Hampshire, Georgetown, Mississippi Valley State, and Manhattan. To take it even further, others will say Stetson covered the 32.5-point point-spread against Houston, and that will translate into today.

The bottom line, the Huskies are the team to beat until proven otherwise. While it's hard to cover such a spread during March Madness, I'll bank on Dan Hurley not letting off the gas.

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