2026 Winter Olympics: USA vs Canada Men's Hockey Gold Medal Game Odds and Prediction

It's the battle of the friendly neighbors. America vs. "America's Hat." It's Yankee Doodle Dandy vs. the Maple Leaf.

The U.S. men's hockey team will skate against Team Canada on Sunday in the gold medal game at the 2026 Milan Cortina Games.

(Photo by Andrzej Iwanczuk/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

For the U.S., a win would clinch its first gold in the sport since 1980, when a roster of college players defeated the seemingly unbeatable professionals from the USSR. How long ago was that? The USSR doesn't even exist any more.

These two nations, Canada and the U.S., have a storied history in the Olympics on the hockey rink. This will be the eighth time the North American neighbors will meet to decide gold at the Olympics. Team Canada is 6-0 in their previous meetings. Most recently, in 2010 in Vancouver, Canada defeated the Americans in overtime on a goal by Sidney Crosby.

• WHEN: 8:10 AM ET on Sunday, February 22.
• TV/STREAMING: NBC and Peacock

Sunday's gold medal hockey game will be played on the 46th anniversary of the "Miracle on Ice" game from the 1980 Olympics.

2026 Olympics Tournament Recap

Canada steamrolled its competition in pool play, with a +17 goal differential in three wins. The U.S. also went 3-0 in a more talented pool.

In quarterfinal and semifinals action, Canada has won by a single goal each time. Using its superior skating and depth to wear down opponents. Team USA survived an overtime game against Sweden, and lambasted Slovakia 6-2 in the semis to set up its gold medal game against Canada.

Two Canadians, Connor McDavid and Macklin Celebrini, lead the Olympics in points. The Canadian team is a powerhouse of scoring threats. If the U.S. has an advantage, it may be in the net, with goaltender Connor Hellebuyck in the crease.

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Winter Olympics Hockey Gold Medal Game Odds and Best Bet

Money is flowing in fairly evenly on both sides of the gold medal matchup, it seems. Oddsmakers have the teams pretty much even.

• U.S. priced at -104 according to FanDuel
• Team Canada is -115 on the moneyline, making it a slight favorite

Experts feel the U.S. has the best chance to keep it close. On the goal line, the U.S. is -265 at +1.5 goals. I like this line, as it means I win if the U.S. wins outright or loses by a goal. All I need to do is wager $265 to win $100 (or $66.25 to win $25).

• BEST BET: U.S. +1.5 Goals at -265

Olympics Gold Medal Game Prop Bet

• Will There Be Overtime? YES: +260

There are many subplots and narratives this time around for these two teams and nations, including players that hate each other. There are coaches with rivalries. One year ago, Canada defeated the the Team USA in the 4 Nations Face-Off, an NHL in-season tournament. That game went into overtime.

The U.S. has peeved its northern neighbor in the last few years over tariffs and other matters. More importantly, the U.S. roster is built to play rough, physical hockey in order to slow down quick, fast-passing teams like the Canadians. On the other side, Team Canada wants to pull the U.S. into a high-scoring battle.

If this game goes into overtime, your $100 bet would be worth $260.

Team USA vs. Canada Prediction

Canada has too much firepower and depth. Two of the lines the Team USA uses are built on moxie and physicality, as opposed to passing and scoring. Speed kills on the ice. I like Canada to win a close game to win its 10th Olympic gold medal in men's ice hockey.