USA vs Dominican Republic World Baseball Classic Semifinal Odds

Knowing the rules or not knowing the rules, it doesn't seem to have mattered: Team USA has won its way to the semifinals in the 2026 World Baseball Classic.

Oddsmakers have the United States as favorites to win this game and the tournament. The powerful Dominican Republic team is second in odds to win the WBC, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.

(Photo by Houston Astros/Getty Images)

For many observers, the USA/Dominican Republic matchup on Sunday in Miami is the de facto finals of this tournament. But, the winner will still need to post another victory. The final game is Tuesday against either Italy or Venezuela.

Moneyline for USA vs DR:

• USA (-140) vs Dominican Republic (+110), O/U is 8.5 Runs

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U.S. will start Paul Skenes against powerful Dominican lineup

In his first two seasons in the major leagues, Paul Skenes has done things no other pitcher has done. He's started the All-Star Game each of his two years, won a Cy Young Award and a Rookie of the Year Award.

Through 55 career starts in MLB, Skenes has a 1.96 ERA — the lowest for any pitcher at that point. Skenes is not just a master at throwing strikes, he throws them past opposing hitters. He has 386 K's in 320 2/3 innings, against only 74 walks. With his thick 6-foot-6 frame, Skenes presents a formative presence on the hill.

But whether he can intimidate the D.R. will be determined with a spot in the WBC Finals on the line. Skenes can go as far as 80 pitches in Sunday's semifinals game. If he takes a lot of pitches to get strikeouts, that could work against the right-hander. The American's would like to see the 2025 NL Cy Young Award winner go at least five innings.

I suspect the D.R. will work to get Skenes' pitch count up as early as possible. Which is why I'm going UNDER on his strikeouts.

• PLAYER PROP: Paul Skenes UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts +180 from FanDuel

The game is at 8 p.m. ET on Sunday, March 15, on FS1.

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Dominican World Baseball Classic Home Run Odds

The Dominican team is loaded with offensive firepower. In the World Baseball Classic, the D.R. leads in runs, hits, batting average, and in home runs, with 14 in five games.

The lineup is arguably more impressive than the one the U.S. is fielding. The Dominicans have eight All-Stars in the starting lineup, with more than a dozen Silver Sluggers won between them. They have batting champs, and Gold and Platinum Glove winners, and future Hall of Famers.

The odds for HR's by D.R. players for the semifinals, according to DraftKings:

• Juan Soto To Hit a Home Run +300
• Junior Caminero To Hit a Home Run +370
• Ketel Marte To Hit a Home Run +450
• Manny Machado To Hit a Home Run +500
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. To Hit a Home Run +500
• Julio Rodriguez To Hit a Home Run +550
• Fernando Tatis Jr. To Hit a Home Run +550
• Geraldo Perdomo To Hit a Home Run +900

My picks are in BOLD. I'm placing half a unit ($50 for my budget) on Juan Soto and Julio Rodriguez to go deep. If I'm correct, I win $425 total on those separate bets.

If I build a parlay on Juan Soto AND Julio Rodriguez to Hit a HR on Sunday, my odds are +2300 from DraftKings. A $100 winning bet would be worth $2,300. I like even a $10 wager on that, to win $230.

Prediction for World Baseball Classic Semifinal, USA vs DOM

Skenes was nearly unhittable in his first start for the US. He will have a longer leash here, but the D.R. lineup is so talented and also MLB-tested. They will be able to foul off tough borderline pitches.

The key to this game is which team will get into the other bullpen first. A second key is baserunning. The D.R. is much better at it than Team USA. Eventually at some point, a runner will need to go first-to-third on a single, or first-to-home on a double. The Dominicans are faster, more intuitive and more aggressive.

I also like Team DR's defense over the United States, who kicked the ball away a bit and allowed Canada to crawl back into the quarterfinals game.

The end of the road is here for Team USA, and it will come at the hands of the Dominican team, which is the best in this tournament.

I like +110 on D.R. to win on the moneyline. But only want to go $25 on that wager. This game should be well-fought. If Skenes can go six innings, the U.S. has a much better chance.

• Dominican Republic 9, USA 7