Will Return of Giannis Antetokounmpo Lift Bucks Into NBA Play-In Tournament?

To say it's been a topsy-turvy season for the Milwaukee Bucks and Giannis Antetokounmpo is a gross understatement. Fans wouldn't be blamed for being weary. Now the unexpected has happened: Giannis is back.

(Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)

That development has stuck a wrench into NBA Odds.

How Giannis Antetokounmpo has impacted the 2025-26 NBA season

The Bucks have struggled to keep a steady lineup in place due to injuries to numerous key players. Most importantly, a somewhat mysterious malady shelved former Most Valuable Player Giannis Antetokounmpo for weeks surrounding the NBA trade deadline.

With "The Greek Freak" out of the lineup, the Bucks went into tank mode. The next NBA draft promises to bring several impact players into the league. If Milwaukee isn't going to have a top playoff seed, what's the point of playing to win, right?

But then, Giannis reportedly demanded a trade. There was speculation the team may move their superstar at the trade deadline even though he was injured. But, Giannis is still a Buck. And this week, he returned to the hardwood.

Now, the question is: are the Bucks going to allow Antetokounmpo to play enough minutes well enough to lift them into the NBA Play-In round? Every spot the team would climb in the standings will make it harder for Milwaukee to get a top draft selection.

As it stands now, if Milwaukee fails to make the playoffs, it would be in the pool of 14 teams that would receive ping pong balls for the draft. If Giannis were to play the Bucks into the Play-In round AND win, Milwaukee would receive no better than the 15th pick.

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Odds for Bucks to make playoffs according to BetMGM

Milwaukee has about six weeks and 22 games to coalesce and find a way to sneak into the Play-In tourney in the Eastern Conference. The Bucks are 6.5 games from the No. 6 seed, so the only realistic chance is through the play-in round.

BetMGM Sportsbook has these odds:

• The Bucks are +1200 to Make the Playoffs, and -3000 to NOT Make the Playoffs

Note that the odds read "To Make the Playoffs." That means the bet is whether Milwaukee advances to a No. 8 or No. 7 seed via the Play-In tournament OR makes the No. 6 seed or higher.

If Milwaukee makes the Play-In but loses, it will not have technically made the NBA Playoffs.

The Bucks have made the playoffs in each of the last nine seasons, which has coincided with the arrival of Giannis as a franchise cornerstone. In 2021, Milwaukee won the NBA Finals, and Antetokounmpo was named Finals MVP when he scored 35.2 points and pulled down 13.2 rebounds per game.

Setting your sights on betting on the NBA MVP or Finals race? Ballislife has that and all future team and player bets on our website.

Projected Order of Eastern Conference Playoffs

According to Basketball-Reference, this is the projected order of the NBA's Eastern Conference playoff teams, as of March 4. This projection uses remaining schedule and other factors based on point-differential, and more.

1. Detroit
2. Boston
3. New York
4. Cleveland
5. Toronto
6. Philadelphia
7. Miami
8. Charlotte

That would mean these Eastern Conference teams would be in the NBA draft lottery: Orlando, Atlanta, Milwaukee, Chicago, Washington, Brooklyn, and Indiana.

Any teams that fail to make the top eight seeded positions in the NBA Playoffs will be placed in the pool for the NBA draft: seven teams from each conference.

Noted college players expected to be picked high in the next NBA include Darryn Patterson, AJ Dybantsa, and Cameron Boozer.