Winter Olympics Women’s Hockey: Team USA vs. Team Canada Gold Medal Game Odds, Prediction

Experts expected both teams to reach the gold medal round, and sure enough they did. For the seventh time since women’s hockey was added to the Winter Olympics, Team USA and Team Canada will compete for the gold. Team USA is the favorite, but it’s a rivalry game, and it's for gold. Teams typically figure out how to elevate their play in such scenarios.

I don’t think it will matter who goes into Thursday's matchup as the betting favorite. Fans are in for an incredible game. So, let’s talk about how to bet on it.

(Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)

2026 Winter Olympics Women’s Hockey Gold Medal Game Odds

Team Canada and Team USA will face off at 1:10 p.m. EST on Thursday at the Milano Santagiulia IHO Arena in Lombardy, Italy. The odds for the game, which will be televised on USA Network, are as follows (via FanDuel):

• Spread: Team USA -1.5 (-162); Team Canada +1.5 (+130)
• Moneyline: Team USA -480; Team Canada +360
• TOTAL: O/U 5.5 (+112/-138)

The perception surrounding today's game has changed considerably from the game the two teams played in the preliminary round. In that contest oddsmakers favored Team USA, and the -166 moneyline gave them a 62.41% chance of winning. This time, the moneyline odds give the U.S. an 82.76% chance.

Why such a big swing? Well, despite Team USA dominating Canada in the latest Rivalry Series (4-0; total goals through all four games—24-7), there was probably a perception that since Canada has dominated Olympic play, they’d do so again. But Team USA dominated Canada in the game, winning 5-0, scoring two goals in the first and second periods and adding another in the third.

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Women’s Hockey Gold Medal Game Preview & Pick: Team USA vs. Team Canada

To say Team USA has been on a dominant run would be an understatement. It has bulldozed its way to the gold medal game, as expected, by outscoring opponents 31-1 along the way while recording five shutouts. Their 5-0 win vs. Team Canada marked the first time the Canadians were shut out in Olympic play.

It’s hard to find a hole in their game. They have experienced veterans to help guide the younger players, impressive depth on the offensive end, elite goaltending, and defensive discipline that some NHL teams probably wish they had. Tack on the momentum and confidence their Olympic run has given them, and it makes you wonder why they don’t have a 90-95% chance of winning.

Team Canada has experience on its side in the Olympics

It could also be because Team Canada has stacked its roster with talent and veteran leadership. Team USA hasn’t faced much of a test. They haven’t faced any challenges, which could lead to overconfidence and sloppy play.

Canada is no stranger to the pressure cooker that is the gold medal round in the Winter Olympics and has done quite well in those games (5-2; 4-2 vs. Team USA and one win over Sweden in 2006). That experience could be pivotal if Team USA falters to open the door to a possible upset.

Gold Medal Game Prediction: USA -1.5 at -162

With the TOTAL for the prelim game being five goals and two of the four Rivalry Series games ending with five-goal totals, I can’t trust that this game will be different. So, I can’t go with the OVER or UNDER, and there is no value in betting the moneyline. That leaves the spread.

Team Canada must find a way to get their veteran-laden roster to step up. It will have to if this game is to be competitive. But the mixture of talented youth and veteran leadership was too much for Canada to handle in the prelims. It will likely be too much in this game, as well.