WNBA Best Bets (Aug. 4): Golden State Valkyries vs. Toronto Tempo Odds & Predictions

It is a relatively quiet day in the WNBA today with just one game on the schedule: the Toronto Tempo at the Golden State Valkyries. The game will certainly be an uphill battle for a Toronto team that has not won on the road since June 19 (vs. Connecticut, 101-97).  So, figuring out the WNBA Best Bets for this game should be easy, right? Well …

Golden State was upset in two of its last three games and failed to cover in three of its last four. Could a lack of offensive firepower start becoming an issue for the Valkyries going forward? If not in the win column, maybe for bettors?

(Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)

That’s a good question. Let’s discuss it and pick out the best bets for Tuesday's game after taking a look at the betting line (odds via FanDuel).

Odds for Toronto Tempo vs. Golden State Valkyries

On the hunt for more sports and WNBA betting promotions? We have a breakdown of the best sports betting offers here.

Here are the odds for tonight’s Golden State Valkyries vs. Toronto Tempo game:

• Spread: Toronto +11.5 (-108) | Golden State -11.5 (-112)
• Moneyline: Toronto +470 | Golden State -700
• Total: O/U 169.5 (-114/-106)

The moneyline isn’t worth considering in this game. Golden State (20-9, 12-4 Home) is the better team by far and has played well at home this season. But at -700, there is no value in taking that bet. As for Toronto (10-19, 4-8 Away), well — could it win? Of course. But, there's no reason I can see that it will.

As for the spread, Golden State covered in the two games in which the team was a double-digit favorite, which includes the last game vs. Toronto (-14.5 on Sunday). But the Valkyries failed to cover when these two teams played on July 8 (-8.5; Golden State won, 83-75).

When it comes to the total, the over is 14-14 for Golden State this season and 8-4 when favored at home. For Toronto, the over is 18-9 overall and  4-8 on the road. In the two previous Golden State-Toronto matchups, the over went 1-1.

Don’t Overlook Toronto

As dominant as Golden State’s defense has been, and considering the Valkyries just beat the Tempo by 17 on Sunday, it would be really easy to overlook the Tempo and roll with Golden State and lay the points (-11.5). Toronto has had one of the worst offenses in the league (83.5 points per game). How much better can it become in just a couple of days?

It could actually become significantly better if the Tempo’s recent acquisition, Aneesah Morrow, is able to go.

Injuries held her back in her rookie season last year. And, injuries have impacted her availability this season as well, but when healthy and given playing time, she has shown why she was a first-round pick. In 20 games for Connecticut (prior to being traded to Toronto), including nine starts, Morrow averaged 23.2 minutes, 11.6 points, and 8.9 rebounds per game.

She has also recorded nine double-doubles, which puts her in the top 10 in the league despite missing time. Morrow did face Golden State once with the Sun early in the season (May 25). She recorded her fifth double-double of the season with 11 points and 10 rebounds.

It will take more than one player to make up for the 17-point difference in Sunday’s game tonight. But if Marina Mabrey, the league’s top 3-point shooter averaging 3+ per game, can go (questionable; hasn’t played since July 30), the dynamic changes. Should the Tempo give Isabelle Harrison starter’s minutes, the Toronto offense could become surprisingly competitive (she scored 24 vs. Golden State on July 8 in 31 minutes).

Could that trio give Toronto enough offense to be competitive in this game? Maybe, but it's an even bigger maybe that they are all active for Tuesday's game. But if they are, we could have a good contest on our hands.

Kalshi: Pros and Cons

• CFTC-regulated
• Transparent pricing
• Low fees, no house edge
• Diverse event markets available

• Possible loss from volatility or market uncertainty

Visit Kalshi

Toronto Tempo at Golden State Valkyries: My Picks

UNDER 169.5 (-106, FanDuel)

There are too many unknown variables for me to pick Toronto and the points or for Golden State to cover. Yes, Golden State has an incredible shutdown defense that has held teams to 77 points per game this season, but its offense has averaged just 82.6. Now Toronto has had one of the league’s worst defenses (93.7 ppg allowed; second-to-last) and a mediocre offense (87.8 ppg).

Golden State did just put up 96 points on the Tempo. So, why am I not talking about the Valkyries covering? Because in the two games prior to the win over Toronto on Sunday, the Golden State defense allowed 90 and 91 points to Washington and Phoenix, respectively. Both have lower-rated offenses than Toronto this season (Tempo — 107.7; Phoenix — 105.4; Washington — 100.9).

So, I’m not willing to bank on Golden State’s offense putting up much more than 85 points (they’ve averaged 85.8 ppg in their last five). With Toronto averaging 83.8 in its last five, we can't expect to see much more than that against the Valkyries defense. However...

If Toronto has Morrow, Mabrey, and Harrison in the starting lineup, take the points. If Morrow and Mabrey are out, go ahead and go with Golden State to cover. We saw how much the Toronto offense suffered without Mabrey on Sunday. Should neither go, we can probably expect more of the same out of Toronto’s offense.

So, be sure to check the official WNBA injury report before placing your bet(s).

Janelle Salaun, Over 2.5 Made 3-pointers at +130

Golden State has made one thing no secret this season — it is more than fine with living and dying by the three on the offensive end of the court. One of the players leading the way in that regard is Janelle Salaun. She leads the team in attempts (6.3 per game), made 3-pointers (2.5 per game), and is shooting 39.7% from 3-point range this season.

She went 4-for-9 Sunday against Toronto, but has gone over 2.5 in just three of her last seven games.  But since she has made at least two 3-pointers in 12 of her last 15, I’m willing to take a chance she’ll make at least three against the Tempo. Toronto has allowed teams to make 43.2% of their 3-point attempts over the last five games (12.8-29.8).

Veronica Burton, Over 1.5 Made 3-pointers at +116

I hesitate to go back to the same well here. But the value in this prop makes it one I can’t pass up. Veronica Burton does not shoot from the perimeter as often as Salaun (3.7 per game) and is at 1.3 per game. But she went 3-for-4 from 3-point range against Toronto Sunday and went over this total in her last four games.

Chances are this prop has +116 odds since she does not take 3-point shots with great regularity. But given her recent success behind the 3-point line, this prop is a solid value play.