WNBA Best Bets (August 5): Wings vs. Mystics, Sparks vs. Sky Odds & Predictions

With every team still having 10+ games to play, no one has been eliminated from the WNBA playoff picture just yet. However, the teams on the outside looking in don’t have time to spare. We are not quite at the now-or-never point, but it’s getting pretty close. At the same time, the frontrunners can’t afford to lose games they should win.

I bring this up, because at this juncture of the season, playoff seeding and making the playoffs can be a driving force for teams. It’s something I certainly kept in mind when I made my WNBA Best Bets picks today.

(Photo by Tim Heitman/NBAE via Getty Images)

If you're hoping to find more sports and WNBA betting promotions, Ballislife Bets has put together a list of the best sports betting offers here.

Before I review my picks, let’s take a look at the odds for each game.

WNBA Betting Odds for August 5

The following are the betting lines for each of the four WNBA games scheduled today (odds via FanDuel):

Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream

• Spread: Phoenix +6.5 (-112) | Atlanta -6.5 (-108)
• Moneyline: Phoenix +198 | Atlanta -250
• Total: O/U 183.5 (-105/-115)

Seattle Storm vs. New York Liberty

• Spread: Seattle +8.5 (-110) | New York -8.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Seattle +270 | New York -355
• Total: O/U 182.5 (-115/-105)

Dallas Wings vs. Washington Mystics

• Spread: Dallas -2.5 (-105) | Washington +2.5 (-115)
• Moneyline: Dallas -128 | Washington +104
• Total: O/U 167.5 (-115/-105)

Los Angeles Sparks vs. Chicago Sky

• Spread: Los Angeles +3.5 (-115) | Chicago -3.5 (-105)
• Moneyline: Los Angeles +124 | Chicago -152
• Total: O/U 187.5 (-105/-115)

Kalshi: Pros and Cons

• CFTC-regulated
• Transparent pricing
• Low fees, no house edge
• Diverse event markets available

• Possible loss from volatility or market uncertainty

Visit Kalshi

WNBA Best Bets (August 5)

Keep reading for my analysis of each game and best bet for each, starting with the Mercury vs. Dream.

Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream

Phoenix is definitely on the outside looking in on the playoff picture. It is 5.5 games back for the No. 8 seed (which currently belongs to the Washington Mystics). For much of the season, the Mercury haven’t looked like a team able to make a push. But that may have changed with the acquisition of one of the best shooters in the WNBA, Kelsey Plum.

Points have been hard to come by for the Mercury for much of the season. They rank No. 11 in scoring with 84.3 points per game. But Phoenix has done better over the last five games (89.4 per game). However, it was still just No. 9 in scoring during that stretch.  Recent games have seen it make significant strides on defense, which played a part in it winning four of the last five games.

But if the Mercury are going to make a playoff push and have a shot at making it past the first round, they have to improve on the offensive end.

That’s where Kelsey Plum comes in. Acquiring Plum means the Mercury now have two of the top six scorers in the league in their lineup. Teams can no longer double Kahleah Copper with Plum playing the other guard and vice versa. Factor in Alyssa Thomas at forward, and the Mercury may have one of the top trios in the WNBA.

Atlanta will, of course, put up a fight. The Dream have broken out of the midseason funk that saw them lose five of six to win five of their last six. In that stretch, the offense has averaged 95.3 points per game. But the defense has held teams to just 92.3 points per game.

The Dream have a pretty good Big Three of their own in Allisha Gray (18.8 ppg), Rhyne Howard (17 ppg), and Angel Reese (16.1 ppg, 11.8 rebounds per game). Reese leads the league in double-doubles with 20.

My Pick: Mercury +6.5 (-112)

Atlanta does appear to have recaptured its early-season magic. But this is a Phoenix team that came on strong at this point last season. It went 9-4 in August and upset the Liberty and Lynx in the playoffs to earn a spot in the Finals — and this squad is better. Kelsey Plum is probably not fully integrated into the offense, yet. But she adds enough offensive firepower to make the Mercury a threat to every team they play going forward.

Atlanta’s defense will make Plum and Copper work for every point. But the Phoenix defense will do the same to the Dream’s Big Three.  I wouldn’t be shocked if Phoenix wins, but it will absolutely be a competitive game decided by a possession or two.

Seattle Storm vs. New York Liberty

Part of me really wants to try to make a strong argument for the Storm to be competitive. But this is a “Best Bets” post and not a “Wishful Thinking” one. Yes, the Liberty have been playing questionable defense of late (95.9 points per game allowed in the last 10 games). However, while New York’s defense is in question, the Seattle offense is even more of a question mark.

The Storm have had one of the lowest scoring offenses of the season (82.6 ppg; No. 13 in the league). During their current nine-game losing streak, they’ve averaged 88.8 points per game (No. 10), but they’ve allowed 96.3 ppg (No. 13). New York will still be without two of its better role players, Leonie Fiebich and Satou Sabally.

But as long as the Liberty have Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu, and Jonquel Jones in the lineup, they’ll be favored against most teams. New York handled the Storm rather easily on Monday, 95-83, But Seattle beat the Liberty at home earlier in the season, 99-88.

My Pick: New York -8.5 (-110)

I’d really like to say Seattle will be competitive and keep it close. The Storm certainly have the talent to do so, with talented players like Dominique Malonga, Awa Fam, Natisha Heideman, Flau’jae Johnson, and Jade Melbourne. But New York’s Big Three (Ionescu, Stewart, and Jones) are playing great basketball right now.

Now, the Liberty were on a nine-game ATS losing streak before covering against the Storm on Monday. Seattle has been competitive in several games during the losing streak (6-3 ATS). But I see no reason to think the Liberty will not cover against a Seattle team that is 2-15 on the road.

Best Brand

BetMGM Promo

Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win

Get bonus now

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET (Available in the US) 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY) 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). 21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. See BetMGM.com for Terms. First Bet Offer for new customers only (if applicable). Subject to eligibility requirements. Bonus bets are non-withdrawable. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. Promotional offers not available in Mississippi, New York, Ontario, or Puerto Rico.

Best Bonus

FanDuel Promo

New Users – Bet $5 Get $200 in Bet Reset Tokens for 5 Days

Get bonus now

Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET. Call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT). Hope is here. GamblingHelplineMA.org or call (800) 327-5050 for 24/7 support (MA). Visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). Call 1-877-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). 21+ (18+ DC, IA, KY, WV) only. New users only or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Casino, First online real money wager only. $5 first deposit required. Min $5 wager required for 5 consecutive days. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable Bet Reset tokens. Refund from token issued as nonwithdrawable bonus bet that expire 7 days after receipt. Max refund $200 per day. Restrictions apply, including token expiration. See full terms at fanduel.com/sportsbook. Call 1-877-770-7867 (LA).

Newcomer

DraftKings Promo

New DraftKings Customers: Spend $5+ Get $150 in Bonus Bets *Paid Within 14 Days

Get bonus now

GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/NH/PR/WY). Void in CAN. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino (KS). Pass-thru of per wager tax may apply in IL. 1 per new DraftKings customer. $5+ first-time bet req. Max. $150 issued as non-withdrawable Bonus Bets that expire in 7 days after issuance. Stake removed from payout. Reward issued as $50 in Bonus Bets every 7 days via click-to-claim for 14 days. 7 days = 168hrs. Terms: sportsbook.draftkings.com/promos. Ends 8/23/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Sponsored by DK.

Dallas Wings vs. Washington Mystics

Washington could be a team that the rest of the league may want to be wary of come playoff time. At 16-12, it has a precarious hold on the No. 8 spot at the moment. But with how the Mystics have been playing, I wouldn’t be shocked to see them move up a spot or two.

Crazy, right? Not really. This is a team that has had one of the worst offenses in the league all season (81.2 ppg, second-to-last). It has been the worst over the last nine games (77.8 ppg). But it played solid defense and went 6-3 outright during that stretch with wins over Golden State, Las Vegas, and most recently, Dallas (81-75 last Friday).

What has been the key? Along with their shutdown defense, the Mystics' Big Three have been playing well. Shakira Austin leads the way with 19.7 ppg and 9.8 rpg, followed by Kiki Rice (14.9 ppg, 9.2 rpg), and Sonia Citron (14.5 ppg).

As for Dallas, the Wings got off to a strong start in July with six wins. But slipped in the latter half of the month. Since beating the Sparks, 90-82, on July 19, Dallas has gone 2-3 with losses to New York, Atlanta, and Washington. But it dominated Connecticut in its last game (Sunday, 83-63).

My Pick: UNDER 167.5 (-105)

I think Dallas is the better team overall. However, there is one problem with the Wings that Washington is well-suited to exploit. Dallas is a good offensive team (110.9 rating; No. 5) and a solid defensive one (105.7 rating; No. 4). But it isn't great at either. So, if a team can disrupt the flow of their game on one end, the Wings are often in trouble.

That was the case in their matchup last Friday vs. Washington. Paige Bueckers scored 23, and Arike Ogunbowale had 20, but they only got 35 points from the rest of the team. But because Washington struggles to score and Dallas has a good defense, I can’t take Washington to win outright.

However, assuming the Mystics can control the Dallas offense once again, this game will finish under its total.

Los Angeles Sparks vs. Chicago Sky

Games like this one come with a unique challenge when it comes to making a prediction. Both are just 11-win teams with records well below .500. However, both still have an outside shot at a playoff spot if they win the games they should win and get some help along the way. So, for both, this could be described as a game they should win.

Los Angeles is not as explosive on offense without Kelsey Plum. But it has averaged 91.2 points per game over its last 10. It has continued to struggle on the defensive end, though.  The Sparks have allowed teams to score a league-high 94.3 ppg in that stretch.

They went 3-7 in those games.

In that same stretch, Chicago has performed right in line with the Sparks, scoring 91 ppg (No. 7)  while allowing 90 ppg (No. 11). The Sky’s results were a little better, though, as they went 4-6.

My Pick: Sparks ML (+126)

If the Sky were going to have Azura Stevens, Skylar Diggins, and Sydney Taylor in the lineup, I’d lean towards Chicago. But Stevens and Diggins have already been ruled out, and Taylor is questionable.  If all three are out, the offense will not have nearly enough punch to keep up with a high-scoring Sparks offense.

LA isn’t the same lights-out offense as it was with a healthy Plum, but it has still been solid. Five players have averaged in double digits the last 10 games, led by Nneka Ogwumike (19.6 ppg), Dearica Hamby (16.4 ppg), and Rae Burrell (16 ppg).

Since we have two lackluster teams playing, I’m going to side with the better offense in this game. Take the Sparks to win outright.