WNBA Best Spread Bets For Today: WNBA Predictions & Odds June 11

The WNBA is back, and bettors are blessed with three games today!

 (Photo by Sam Hodde/Getty Images)

Kelsey Plum will once again make her return to Vegas as a member of the Los Angeles Sparks (3-7). Massive -500 moneyline favorites, can A'ja Wilson singlehandedly get the Las Vegas Aces (4-3) back to prime form? In the off-season, the Aces sent guard Kelsey Plum to the Sparks in a blockbuster trade in which they acquired Jewell Loyd from Seattle.

Satou Sabally will face her former team, the Dallas Wings (1-9) tonight. Acquired in the offseason, Sabally and the Phoenix Mercury (6-4) have stayed afloat without some of the biggest stars. With Alyssa Thomas and Natasha Mack probable, the Mercury are -285 moneyline favorites at home. After calling out the WNBA Commissioner Cathy Engelbert regarding the schedule, Sabally will get a chance to erupt against Paige Bueckers and the Dallas Wings.

Tonight, the undefeated Minnesota Lynx (9-0) will face the Seattle Storm (5-4) on the road. It's no secret the Lynx are headed for greatness, and Napheesa Collier is having an MVP-caliber season. Will the Seattle Storm break their undefeated season at home as +150 moneyline underdogs?

All three are Commissioner's Cups matchups—meaning point differential counts! In cased you missed it, I gave my top three player prop bets in my last article.

Let's take a look at my three best spread bets, player prop picks, and my top predictions for the June 11 WNBA matchups!

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WNBA Best Bets For Wednesday, June 11

WNBA Spread Bet: Los Angeles Sparks vs Las Vegas Aces

Sparks ATS Record: 4-6
Aces ATS Record: 3-4

• Los Angeles Sparks +10 (-110 FanDuel)

My first best bet for today, I placed one unit on the Los Angeles Sparks to cover the +10 point spread against the Las Vegas Aces.

The Sparks have had a disappointing start to the season under new head coach Lynne Roberts. The Sparks continue to be without Cameron Brink, who's recovering from an ACL injury. In addition, Rae Burrell is ruled out indefinitely with a leg injury. Rickea Jackson in fact missed several games due to concussion protocol and personal reasons.

That's not to say the Sparks haven't had their struggles this season. Having lost their last matchup to the Golden State Valkyries in overtime, LA had poor offensive execution down the stretch. With Kelsey Plum nailing some clutch points, nearly every play was drawn up for her towards the end.

So far this season, the Sparks have victories against the Dallas Wings, Chicago Sky, and Golden State State Valkyries. That isn't exactly the most impressive list of teams to beat. However, they are 4-6 ATS this season, and well covered spreads against the Wings, Sky and Valkyries.

Why The Los Angeles Sparks Can Cover The Spread

3-7 in their last ten games, the Sparks hold a -.7 point differential. 1-2 in the Commissioners Cup standings, they have a +9 point differential. Regardless of their record, this team possesses a ton of talent. Led by Kelsey Plum, this is a team that ranks No. 4 in offensive rating, boasting 82.6 points per game.

Now that Jackson is back, the Sparks need to figure out how to utilize the sophomore wing. A talented two-way versatile player—the Sparks have too much talented to be tabbed as 10 point underdogs. This is a team that has a solid frontcourt in Dearica Hamby and Azura Stevens. Aside from last game, we've seen Odyssey Sims produce some massive performances.

Where the Sparks lack is their defensive, and rank No. 10 in defensive rating (101.6). With a -1.2 net rating, this is a Sparks team that boasts the fifth best effective field goal percentage. Offensively, this team is no slouch.

Defensive and rebounds have been the weakness. Over the last four games, opponents are scoring over 87 points per game against the Sparks. Although 1-4 in their last five games, they've kept losses to the Valkyries, Mercury, and Dream to eight points and under.

Arguably their worst two losses came against the Lynx, and the Aces—who defeated the Sparks, 96-81 on May 30. The Aces easily covered the 10.5 favorable spread in which Vegas nearly put up 100 points!

In a high scoring affair, both teams shot over 45 percent from the field, and the Aces shot 48 percent from beyond the arc. Here's why I don't Vegas covering such a large spread tonight.

Can A'ja Wilson Bring The Aces Back To Life?

Becky Hammon would need another repeat performance from Wilson, Jackie Young, and Chelsea Gray—who combined for 76 points in that matchup.  Scoring 70 points and below over the last two games, this Aces team has looked unrecognizable from year's past.

Jewell Loyd is averaging just 9.4 points on the season, and has a combined 18 points over the last three games. A career 38.1 3-point shooter, Jackie Young has struggled from beyond the arc. Considered one of the top talents in the WNBA, Young is coming off an abysmal four point performance against the Valkyries. In fact, she went 1-8 from deep. Over the last two games, Young has a combined 16 points.

The bottom line, this Aces team has looked stagnant on both sides of the ball. While Young's shooting percentages have taken a dip, so have Gray's assists.

There's an abundance of talent on the Aces, but here's the hard truth. This is a team that ranks No. 8 in offensive rating (99.6), and No. 9 in defensive rating (101.6) and net rating (-1.9). In fact, they hold the worst assist to turnover ratio in the WNBA (15.6), and have the ninth lowest effective field goal percentage in the league (46 %).

Final WNBA Best Bets & Prediction: Los Angeles Sparks +10 (-110 FanDuel)

The Aces have victories over the Storm, Sparks, Mystics, and Sun on the season. Aside from covering the -10.5 point spread against the Sparks, the Aces are 1-4 when favorites by 10.5 points or more.

Overall, the Aces were unable to cover  12.5, 15, and 14 favorable point spreads agains the Valkyries, Mystics, and Sun.

I'm taking the Los Angeles Sparks to cover the +10 point spread tonight. 3-1 ATS on the road, both teams haven't been exactly "standout." The Aces were down to 10 players after waiving Crystal Bradford, however, they've signed Joyner Holmes.

• I simply don't trust the Aces offense to lay the points with them today. 

WNBA Spread Bet: Dallas Wings vs Phoenix Mercury

Wings ATS Record: 3-7
Mercury ATS Record: 5-5

• Phoenix Mercury -6.5 (-135 DraftKings)

My second best bet for today, I placed one unit on the Phoenix Mercury to cover the 6.5 point favorable spread against the Dallas Wings.

5-5 ATS this season, the Mercury have managed to stay afloat with stars Alyssa Thomas, and Kahleah Copper. Listed as probable, I'm assuming Natasha Mack and Alyssa Thomas will be under a minutes restriction.

Even so, this is a Mercury time that's gathered impressive victories over the Sparks, Valkyries, and Storm. No.4 in defensive rating (95.2), that's taken a hit last game. Boasting a .7 point differential, Phoenix is 2-2 when favored by six points or more.

Now they get Mack and Thomas back to help Satou Sabally lead this team. Kalani Brown has been downgraded to doubtful with an illness, but let's not underestimate the depth of this team.

Not only do the Mercury play somewhat "positionless" basketball, they have incredible grit and depth. Filled with rookie and international talent,  both Kitija Laksa, Monique Akoa Makani, and Kathryn Westbeld have been snipers beyond the arc.

Paige Bueckers Will Return To The Dallas Wings Today

With all three shooting 35 percent and above from deep, this team matchups up well against the Wings.

Although the Dallas Wings drafted Paige Bueckers No.1 overall in the 2025 WNBA Draft, this team is struggling, respectfully. At 1-9, they get Bueckers back after missing the last four games.

This is a Wings team that ranks No. 7 in offensive rating (101.2), No. 11 in defensive rating (108.5). With a -7.3 net rating, the offense and defense has looked chaotic and disorganized under new head coach Chris Koclanes.

Star Arike Ogunbowale has yet to find her footing, and Dallas is still adjusting to a new system with a brand new roster. This is something that isn't built over night.

In the four games without Bueckers, the Wings jumped to No. 12 in offensive rating (96.2) and defensive rating (110.4). Holding a net rating of -14.2 without Bueckers, the rookie will bring some stability, shot creation, and facilitating back tonight.

Final WNBA Best Bets & Prediction: Phoenix Mercury -6.5 (-135 DraftKings)

While Bueckers won't be on a minutes restriction, I'm not expecting 20+ points out of the gate. 3-7 ATS on the season, the Wings covered large 10 and 11 underdog spreads against the Lynx and Storm.

• I'm taking the Phoenix Mercury to cover the 6.5 point spread tonight. It seems the Wings are trending in the wrong direction, and hold a -52 point differential over their five game skid.  The wings have dropped the last two games by 14 points or more. Plus, they are 2-5 ATS as underdogs. 

Player Prop Bet #1: Chelsea Gray

Chelsea Gray 2025 WNBA Stats

GP: 7 | PPG: 12.9 | FG: 41.7 % | FT: 88.9 % | 3PT: 42.4 % | REB: 3.7 | AST: 3.4| STL: 1.4 |  BLK: 0.3

• OVER 4.5 Assists (-132 FanDuel)

My third best bet for today, I placed one unit on Las Vegas Aces guard Chelsea Gray to record over 4.5 assists against the Los Angeles Sparks.

Aforementioned above, there's no doubt the Aces offense has been stagnant. Averaging 3.4 assists on the season, that's uncharacteristic for Gray.

I would have thought Gray's assists would increase with the departure of Kelsey Plum, but that hasn't been the case. She's soared over 4.5 assists just one time this season—against the Seattle Storm with six assists.

If the Aces can figure out their offensive rhythm, Gray can soar over this line. In fact, she's had six games where she's averaged 11+ potential assists.

I'm not expecting the Aces to have another repeat performance from last matchup against Golden State.

Final WNBA Best Bets & Prediction: Chelsea Gray OVER 4.5 Assists (-132 FanDuel)

This is a Sparks team that allows 20.8 assists per game. Not to mention, they give up 13 assists per game to guards. Overall, LA has allowed opponents to score over 87.3 points over the last four games.

If Valkryies Julie Vanloo and Veronica Burton can combine for 14 assists against the Sparks, I have full confidence Gray can get those assist numbers up tonight.

Recording four dimes against LA on May 30, it was more of a even distribution among the Aces in terms of facilitating.

• I'm taking Chelsea Gray to record over 4.5 assists today. It's time the Aces run the ball through Gray and Wilson and create some offense. Having already faced the Sparks once, their defense, Gray knows this team well. Dating back to last season, she's averaged 5.7 assists in their last 10 head-to-head matchups.