WNBA Best Bets (July 12): Aces vs. Fever, Tempo vs. Liberty Odds & Picks

The WNBA is giving fans a great way to spend their Sunday with a four-game schedule starting with a pair of games at 3 p.m. EST and wrapping up with the Indiana Fever and Las Vegas Aces at 9 p.m. EST. After a deep dive into each game, here are the WNBA Best Bets of the day.

But before I get into my picks for each contest, let’s take a look at the odds.

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WNBA Odds for Sunday (July 12)

The odds for each game are via FanDuel. Before you place your bet(s), be sure to review the injury report for the game(s) you are interested in:

New York Liberty vs. Toronto Tempo

• Spread: New York -6.5 (-118) | Toronto +6.5 (-104)
• Moneyline: New York -290 | Toronto +225
• Total: O/U 177.5 (-115/-105)

Seattle Storm vs. Washington Mystics

• Spread: Seattle +5.5 (-112) | Washington -5.5 (-108)
• Moneyline: Seattle +172 | Washington -215
• Total: O/U 161.5 (-115/-105)

Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings

• Spread: Chicago +9.5 (-108) | Dallas -9.5 (-112)
• Moneyline: Chicago +330 | Dallas -450
• Total: O/U 178.5 (-106/-114)

Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces

• Spread: Indiana +4.5 (-112) | Las Vegas -4.5 (-108)
• Moneyline: Indiana +148 | Las Vegas -184
• Total: O/U 181.5 (-110/-110)

My WNBA Best Bets for July 12

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New York Liberty vs. Toronto Tempo

When these two teams last met (June 3), New York took care of business, as expected, winning 97-82. Does that mean you should roll with the Liberty once again and move on to the next game? Eh…let’s discuss.

The team Toronto is facing today is different. New York has lost its last two and six of the last eight. In those games, it has averaged 85.4 points (ninth-best in the league) and allowed 87.4 points (eighth-best in the league). To make matters worse for the Liberty, this game is the second half of a back-to-back.

On the offensive end, their scoring has dipped slightly, from 88.4 to 85.4 points per game over the last eight games. The problem has been on defense. Prior to this eight-game stretch, they had allowed 81.4 points per game (fourth best in the league). Since then, they’ve allowed 87.4 (eighth best).

That may not seem too significant, but when you factor in their scoring taking a slight dip, we are talking about a nine-point differential. Of the six losses, they lost four by nine points or less. But is this something Toronto can take advantage of?

• My Pick: Over 177.5 (-115, FanDuel)

Part of me wants to go with Toronto because the Tempo have been putting up some points: 91.3 points per game in their last eight, powered by Marina Mabrey, who is averaging 27.9 points per game. If she heats up and the New York defense has an off night, Toronto could easily clear 90+ points.

But at the same time, New York’s offense should have a big night against Toronto’s weak defense (96.3 points allowed per game over the last eight). Between Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu, and Jonquel Jones, I wouldn’t be shocked to see New York crack 100.

Seattle Storm vs. Washington Mystics

Washington got off to a slow start this season, but its early struggles were not surprising, as it has the youngest roster in the WNBA (an average age of 24 years and 46 days). The team is stacked with talent like second-year players Kiki Iriafen, Sonia Citron, and Georgia Amoore, along with an impressive rookie class that includes UCLA superstar Lauren Betts.

While they are far from a polished unit, things are starting to look up for the Mystics (sort of). Since June 17, Washington has gone 5-3 with the lowest-rated offense (96.1) and the highest-rated defense (97.9). To be fair, they have the lowest-rated offense in the league (98.6). But their defense has come a long way, earning a 106.7 rating through their first 12 games (ninth-best). With how well they’ve played since, they have moved up to third-best (103.1).

As for Seattle, first-year head coach Sonia Raman has faced a real challenge finding a winning formula for her young team while navigating early injuries to key players. However, despite being just a six-win team, there have been several promising developments.

Dominique Malonga has stepped up and played like a player taken second overall should. Rookie Flau'jae Johnson is third amongst all rookies in scoring (12.8 points per game), first in rebounds (5.8 per game) and first in double-doubles (3). Awa Fam, the Storm's other star rookie, is not far off Johnson’s numbers with 11.3 points per game (sixth among rookies) and 5.1 rebounds per game (second behind Johnson).

The work may be starting to pay off. Seattle is 3-3 in its last six with wins over New York and Atlanta. It also lost by 23 to Phoenix, by five to Portland, and lost its last time out, 89-78, to Atlanta.

• My Pick: Under 161.5 (-105, FanDuel)

Washington should win this game, but there is no value on the moneyline, and I don’t trust a team with the league's lowest-rated offense to score enough to cover a 5.5-point spread. However, the Mystics have been playing solid defense and should be able to keep Seattle’s low-rated offense (99.3, 13th in the league) from scoring much.

The Storm are not a defensive powerhouse, but they are good enough to keep the league's lowest-rated offense from heating up.

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Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings

Dallas comes into this game as one of two teams in the WNBA that have yet to lose a game in July (the other being Golden State). It’s a feat made even more impressive when you factor in that they Wings have been on the road the whole time. As for Chicago, the Sky have gone 1-2, allowing 88.7 points per game (second-to-last) and scoring 84.7 points per game.

The Wings, of course, have the highest-scoring offense of the month to date, averaging 92.8 points per game while holding opponents to 82.8 points per game (fifth-best).

What does this tell us? Nothing we don’t already know; this is a game that Dallas should win. But at -450, there is no value in the moneyline. So, we have to figure out whether Dallas can cover a 9.5-point spread or whether the final score will likely be higher or lower than 178.5 points.

To answer both questions (spread or total), there is one thing we have to figure out: Can Chicago put some points on the board and keep it close, or do enough to put the final score over the total? Dallas beat Chicago by 10 early in the season, 99-89 (May 20). But just last month (June 20), Chicago pushed Dallas pretty hard and had a shot to win, but lost a close one, 93-92.

In the last six games, the Sky have averaged 96.3 points per game (best in the league in that stretch). It will be tougher without injured Skylar Diggins. In the two games Chicago has played without her, the Sky scored 77 and 87 points.

• My Pick: Dallas -9.5 (-112, FanDuel)

I’m not confident this Chicago team can score 80-90 points against Dallas with how well the Wings have been playing. Without Diggins, the Sky offense has been even flatter than usual. After watching them give up 98 points to the Aces and 102 to the Sparks, it is hard to imagine they’ll have what it takes to slow Paige Bueckers, Jessica Shepard, and Arike Ogunbowale.

Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces

This is definitely one of those games where you shouldn’t let the outcome of their last matchup influence how you bet. Yes, Indiana won in commanding fashion, 84-68, but the Aces are a different team without A’ja Wilson.

The same could be said for the Fever, who were without Caitlin Clark, but in a different way. Indiana has gone 4-0 in games without Clark and 9-9 when she’s active. Turnovers go way up for the team when she plays, and the defense is atrocious (but it’s bad with and without her).

Kelsey Mitchell has been a scoring machine, averaging 28.2 points a game over the last five games. Aliyah Boston chipped in 19.8 points and 8.8 rebounds over the four games she played. Clark chipped in 14 points per game but only played in two of the last five. However, this season, she is averaging 20.5 points and 7.9 assists per game. But perhaps her most important contribution is the time and focus defenses must give her, which makes things a little easier for Boston and Mitchell.

As for Vegas, the Aces bounced back from the loss to the Fever with an 88-80 win over Portland powered by a 32-point night from A’ja Wilson. Last night, they dominated the Phoenix Mercury, handing them one of the worst defeats in WNBA history, 106-58. That kind of momentum could power the Aces out to a big enough early lead that the Fever can’t overcome.

However, it could also prove detrimental, as Vegas is playing on no rest while Indiana has been off since Thursday.

• My Pick: Over 181.5 (-110, FanDuel)

I do not think Indiana can win this game, but I don’t have confidence in the Aces covering the spread or in Indiana staying within 4.5 points. However, we have the No. 1 scoring offense playing in this game (Indiana) and the highest-rated offense (Vegas). It’ll be facing a decent Vegas defense (82.2 points per game allowed over the last five games, fifth-best) and an Indiana unit that has allowed 92.2 points per game.

Vegas should score between 90 and 100 points in this game, while Indiana could certainly do the same thing.