WNBA Best Bets (July 15): Fever vs. Valkyries, Lynx vs. Sparks Odds & Picks

The WNBA season moves forward Wednesday with a three-game slate, starting with Seattle vs. Chicago at 12 p.m. EST, followed by Los Angeles vs. Minnesota at 1 p.m. EST. Indiana will host Golden State in primetime (8 p.m. EST).

Which bets stand out for these matchups? I’ll share my WNBA best bets shortly, but first, let’s review the betting lines.

(Photo by Carlos Avila Gonzalez/San Francisco Chronicle via Getty Images)

WNBA Odds for Wednesday (July 15)

Odds via FanDuel

Seattle Storm at Chicago Sky

• Spread: Seattle +2.5 (-106) | Chicago -2.5 (-114)
• Moneyline: Seattle +118 | Chicago -144
• Total: O/U 171.5 (-108/-112)

Los Angeles Sparks at Minnesota Lynx

• Spread: Los Angeles +11.5 (-114) | Minnesota -11.5 (-106)
• Moneyline: Los Angeles +410 | Minnesota -600
• Total: O/U 181.5 (-118/-104)

Golden State Valkyries vs. Indiana Fever

• Spread: Golden State +2.5 (-114) | Indiana -2.5 (-106)
• Moneyline: Golden State +110 | Indiana -134
• Total: O/U 167.5 (-108/-112)

My WNBA Best Bets (July 15)

If you're hoping to find more sports and WNBA betting promotions, Ballislife Bets has gathered a list of the best sports betting offers here.

Seattle Storm vs. Chicago Sky

Choosing between two lackluster teams tends to increase the challenge of picking a winner. But calling the Sky and Storm “lackluster” may not paint an accurate picture of the two teams in this game.

Seattle (6-19, 2-11 Away) is second-to-last in scoring with just 80 points per game, but ranks last in the league in scoring on the road (76.5 points per game). On the defensive end, however, the numbers aren’t that bad. The Storm rank sixth in points allowed (85.1), and they don’t fall too far off that mark on the road (87.1).

Natisha Hiedeman leads the team in scoring with 16.2 points per game. She is followed by a trio of up-and-coming young players, including last year’s No. 2 draft pick, Dominique Malonga (15.5 points per game), and rookies Awa Fam (10.9 points per game) and Flau’jae Johnson (12.6 points per game).

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As for Chicago (7-16, 3-7 Home), the Sky are slightly better on offense (86.4 points per game, ninth in the league). It certainly doesn’t help that they struggle to make shots from the perimeter (31.1% from 3-point range, 13th in the league). But defensively, they are closer to the bottom of the league (89.7 points allowed per game).

It doesn’t become any easier for Chicago with Skylar Diggins and DiJonai Carrington out for the game. Kamilla Cardoso could be out as well. She is listed as a game-time decision and is questionable to play due to a knee injury.

My Pick: Seattle ML (+118, FanDuel)

Neither team is bringing any momentum into this game, as both lost their last two. I can’t say Chicago has much of a home-court advantage, as it is just 3-7 in the Windy City. Then again, Seattle is just 2-11 on the road, so maybe it gives the Sky a slight edge. However, for this game, I think I have to side with the Storm.

Yes, Seattle has struggled on the road, but it has been playing solid defense (96.7 rating in July; third best in the league).

Los Angeles Sparks  vs. Minnesota Lynx

This game has trap potential written all over it. If you follow the WNBA, even as a casual observer, you know which team is better here (Minnesota). The Lynx (18-6, 8-4 Home) have the best record in the league, the No. 2 scoring offense (90.6 points per game), and the No. 2 defense (81.7 points per game allowed).

It would be a crime if Olivia Miles was not to win Rookie of the Year, and the team’s best player has yet to play this season (Napheesa Collier; she is out for this game). We may not have seen how good this team can be. So, surely, covering the spread against Los Angeles (10-12, 5-5 Away) — right?

Eh…not so fast.

Minnesota has not been a dominant team lately. It has gone 3-2 in its last five games with a loss to lowly Connecticut at home (July 6). On the defensive end, teams have averaged 90.8 points a game over the last five. The offense hasn’t played like a top-two unit, but it has averaged 91 points per game over the last five (fourth best).

As for the Sparks, LA has had the worst scoring defense in the league this season (93.6 points per game allowed). Going on the road certainly doesn’t help (95.4 points allowed per game). Early in the season, it had one of the top-scoring offenses in the league, but with Kelsey Plum sidelined, the Sparks' offense is averaging 89.2 points per game (sixth-best).

So, what makes this a potential trap game?

My Pick: Over 181.5 (-118, FanDuel)

LA has averaged 100 points over its last three games, proving that the potential is still there on offense. With Minnesota’s defense slipping in the last five games, I can’t say with confidence that the Lynx will cover. I’d be shocked if they lost, but there is no value in betting on them to win outright. That leaves the total.

Minnesota is 8-4 to the Over this season at home. It has been 8-2 for the Sparks on the road. This will be the biggest total for the Lynx this season; the Over is 5-4 when the total has been 170+. The total has been 180+ in seven games for LA; the Over is 6-1.

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Golden State Valkyries vs. Indiana Fever

If you are going to take on the No. 1 defense in the league on its home court, this may be the perfect time for Indiana. Why? Because the Fever are coming off of arguably their best game of the year. Their league-leading offense turned in another 100+-point night, their eighth of the year but the first on the road. Not only that, but the team’s much-maligned defense held the Las Vegas Aces to 75 points at home; A’ja Wilson only had 20 points.

So, for arguably the first time this season, the Fever clicked on both ends of the court. But was it an anomaly, or is this what we can expect from Indiana going forward?

Fans will, of course, hope that the game vs. the Aces is a taste of things to come. But the good thing is that they may not need it to be to get the win over Golden State. The Valkyries play incredible defense (best in the league), there is no denying that, but they are nowhere near as strong on the offensive end.

It’s a good thing their defense holds teams to 76 points a game because they only put up 82 per game. During their current seven-game win streak, the Valkyries scored 80+ points in just two games. But since they held opponents to under 70 points in four and under 80 in six, that was OK.

Indiana has already beaten Golden State in Indianapolis, 90-82, but that was back in May. Not even a week later, they played again in San Francisco, and that time the Valkyries won (90-88). Caitlin Clark is on the injury report as a game-time decision but is considered probable to play. It is unclear whether Golden State will be without Gabby Williams (also a GTD, but considered questionable).

My Pick: Golden State ML (+110, FanDuel)

Clark is unlikely to find her shot against Golden State’s defense. Kelsey Mitchell has been on a tear, scoring 20+ points a game, but the Valkyries held her to under 20 in both early-season games. For Indiana to win, the Fever will need someone other than Mitchell and Clark to step up on the scoreboard, i.e., Aliyah Boston, Sophie Cunningham, etc.

I’m not sure they have someone who can against this defense. It will be an incredible game, and one that Golden State will win outright in the end.