WNBA Best Bets (July 6): Mystics vs. Valkyries, Lynx vs. Sun, Sparks vs. Storm Odds & Picks

The WNBA is getting the week off to a solid start with three games on the schedule, starting with Golden State vs. Washington, followed by Minnesota hosting Connecticut. Seattle will take on Los Angeles in the nightcap.

(Photo by Jack Compton/Getty Images)

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Let’s take a look at the odds for each game today and discuss our best bet for each (odds via FanDuel).

WNBA Best Bets: Golden State Valkyries vs. Washington Mystics (July 6)

• Spread:  Golden State -5.5 (-110) | Washington +5.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Golden State -225 | Washington +180
• Total: O/U 155.5 (-114/-106)

Golden State will likely come into this game feeling pretty good, riding a four-game winning streak. But the win streak is a little unusual because the Valkyries only played two teams; three of those wins came against the Atlanta Dream (two at home and one on the road). The third win made it five losses in a row for the Dream, but sandwiched in between Golden State’s second and third wins is a victory over the New York Liberty.

So, the Valkyries didn’t just have Atlanta’s number in the streak. They continued to play at a high level and took down one of the best teams in the league by nine points, 76-67.

However, while they’ve obviously played well in the last four games, the defense has been carrying the team. In that stretch, they have averaged 79.8 points per game (last in the league). But when your defense is playing lights out (72.8 points per game; best in the league), you can get away with not scoring much.

But Washington may have quietly turned into a team that could give the Valkyries a run for their money. Since losing to New York, 88-64, on June 14, falling to 5-7, Washington has been playing solid basketball. Heading into tonight’s game, they Mystics have won five of their last seven, including wins over some of the league’s best teams (New York, Minnesota, and Atlanta).

However, like Golden State, the defense has led the way. In that stretch, the Mystics averaged 85.1 points per game (second-to-last). But on the defensive end, they held opponents to 84 points per game (fourth-best).

Valkyries vs. Mystics Pick: Under 155.5 (-106, FanDuel)

With Sonia Citron’s status officially a game-time decision, I’m a little uneasy about taking Washington to win. But with how well they’ve been playing lately, the idea deserves to be entertained. Between Kiki Iriafen, Shakira Austin, and Michaela Onyenwere, someone will pick up the slack on the scoreboard. But losing your floor general is tough.

As for Golden State, Gabby Williams is emerging as a solid scoring threat. But she’s not quite ready to carry a team on her back. However, if her role players all step up (i.e., Veronica Burton, Janelle Salaun, Cecilia Zandalansini, and Kayla Thornton) she will not have to.

But can we trust that they will? Probably not. What we can trust, though, is that both teams will play solid defense and likely keep the final score relatively low. Take the Under

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WNBA Best Bets: Connecticut Sun vs. Minnesota Lynx (July 6)

• Spread:  Connecticut +11.5 (-106) | Minnesota -11.5 (-114)
• Moneyline: Connecticut +520 | Minnesota -800
• Total: O/U 165.5 (-105/-115)

In a way, this is a trap game for betting purposes. Minnesota is one of the most well-rounded teams in the league (No. 2 in scoring and in points allowed per game). Connecticut, on the other hand, is on the other end of the spectrum. At 4-16, it has the worst record in the league. The Sun are the only team in the league not averaging 80+ points per game (79.5).

When you allow 86.6 points per game (tenth best in the league), and struggle to score 80 points, it’s hard to win games.

But the Sun may have finally figured a few things out. In their last three games, they’ve gone 2-1, losing only to the Dallas Wings in their last game after Paige Bueckers led a fourth-quarter comeback (final score: 86-83). However, that run was at home. Now they are on the road, playing one of the best teams in the WNBA on its home court.

The Lynx may not have Olivia Miles available; she is listed as “doubtful” and considered a game-time decision. Aneesah Morrow is out for the Sun.

My Connecticut vs. Minnesota Pick: UNDER 165.5 (-115, FanDuel)

The Lynx will win this game. It would be an upset of epic proportions if the Sun somehow won this game. But can they cover? That’s a good question. Minnesota has been a double-digit favorite in four other games this season. They went 3-1 SU and ATS in those games, losing outright to Washington a couple of weeks ago (June 21).

The Lynx should cover it against one of the league's worst teams, but I can’t say that with confidence. However, while Connecticut has been decent the last three games, it’ll struggle against Minnesota’s defense. If Olivia Miles does play, the team will likely not ask her to do too much and will probably pull her early.

The Under is 4-1 for Minnesota in the last five games; tonight will make it 5-1.

WNBA Best Bets: Seattle Storm vs. Los Angeles Sparks (July 6)

• Spread: Seattle  +4.5 (-120) | Los Angeles -4.5 (-102)
• Moneyline: Seattle +138 | Los Angeles -170
• Total: O/U 174.5 (-106/-114)

Los Angeles has played twice since losing Kelsey Plum to an injury for the foreseeable future, and neither game went well. Both were on the road and saw the Sparks lose by a significant margin: 125-97 to Toronto and 111-87 to Indiana.

While it is easy to say, “Well, they don’t have Plum,” so this is not surprising, Plum only has the seventh-best defensive rating on the team (113.4; Cameron Brink has the best defensive rating, but she’s out with an injury as well) and doesn’t have the team’s best +/- either (-0.3).

LA has been the league’s worst defense all season (94.3 points per game allowed). That reality has been on full display these last two games. So, then why is it favored against Seattle?

Seattle’s defense is not great, but it’s not terrible either (86 points allowed per game, eighth-best). Their bigger issue is on the other end of the court, where the Storm average 80 points per game (second-to-last in the league).  That issue was on display in their last two games when they lost to Portland, 77-72, and dropped one to Phoenix, 90-67. But then they scored 105 in a win over Atlanta (June 27), 99 in a victory against New York (June 25), and put 110 in an OT loss to Dallas (June 22).

So, the offensive potential is there. But until it can tap into it with some regularity, Seattle will come out on the losing end more often than not.

My Seattle vs. Los Angeles Pick: Storm ML (+138, FanDuel)

I’m a little surprised the Sparks are favored in this game. Yes, they are playing at home, but they are 3-6 when playing in LA this season. At the same time, Seattle is 1-9 in road games. So, why am I picking the Storm?

Because of Dominique Malonga.

In the wins over Atlanta and New York, Seattle played its young center 34 and 28 minutes, and she recorded a double-double in each game (20/10 vs. New York and 16/11 vs. Atlanta). She averaged 20 minutes in the next two games, did not post solid numbers, and they lost.

Malonga recorded a double-double in four of her last five games in June, averaging 28+ minutes per game. Without Cameron Brink patrolling the paint, the Storm should focus on getting the ball into Dominique Malonga’s hands as much as possible. If they do, they can win this game.