WNBA Best Bets (July 7): Liberty vs. Wings, Mercury vs. Sky Odds & Picks

Just two games on the card, including a potential WNBA Finals preview when the Dallas Wings visit the New York Liberty tonight. The Liberty could be looking for revenge after losing the first meeting, also in Brooklyn, where the Wings won by 15 in May. The game tips at 8 p.m. Eastern and will be broadcast on ESPN with guest commentators Robin Roberts and Geno Auriemma.

The Chicago Sky and Phoenix Mercury also meet for the second time this season. Phoenix won the first meeting, 91-83, on May 15. Don't count this out as a throwaway game, either, even with the teams near the bottom of the standings. Ever since the teams met for the championship in 2021, there's been a mystique when they get together, which is why I have two plays for this 10 p.m. ET tip that can be found on WNBA League Pass.

(Photo by David Dow/NBAE via Getty Images)

WNBA Best Bets Today, July 7

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Let's take a look at the odds and my best bets for Tuesday (odds via FanDuel):

WNBA Best Bets: Dallas Wings at New York Liberty

• Spread: Dallas +4.5 (-115) | New York -4.5 (-105)
• Moneyline: Dallas (+142) | New York (-178)
• Total: O/U 175.5 (-106/-114)

The Liberty haven't forgotten the thrashing Dallas handed out in Brooklyn in May and will undoubtedly be out for revenge.

The Liberty will step onto the court tonight after home wins over the Las Vegas Aces and Minnesota Lynx, and should be playing with plenty of confidence in their building.

The Wings have also won two in a row, yes. But they also played in Connecticut and Toronto. The step up in class will be a tall task this time around, especially when you consider the Wings just lost to the Lynx (85-77) and Aces (99-84) in their previous games.

And if there's one person I'm counting on to lead the offense tonight (prop bet alert), it's Sabrina Ionescu. She made her season debut in the first meeting and finished with 11 points on 4-of-15 (.267) shooting.

My Prediction: New York Liberty -4.5 (-105)

• The Liberty are on a 7-1 ATS run in Brooklyn, where they've outscored teams by an average final of 84.8 to 79.0. But since May 27, the Liberty have won in Brooklyn by an average score of 86.7 to 76.4 — an improved margin of 10.3 points per game. New York has won seven of the last nine meetings straight-up. And while I know the Wings have covered the last four battles with New York, the average point spread saw Dallas catching +9.3 per game.

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WNBA Best Bets: Chicago Sky at Phoenix Mercury

• Spread: Chicago +3.5 (-115) | Phoenix -3.5 (-105)
• Moneyline: Chicago (+122) | Phoenix (-150)
• Total: O/U 172.5 (-114/-106)

Since June 11, the Sky are just 2-6. But I wouldn't go as far as calling them lost. At least not on offense, where they've scored 96.3 points per game — second most in the league in that span. The problem for the Sky is that they've allowed teams to either come from behind or dictate things to pull out victories.

Chicago will continue to get inspired play from Sydney Taylor, who ranks second among all rookies with 18.1 points per game during the Sky's eight-game offensive surge.

The Mercury, meanwhile, are trying to stay relevant in the playoff conversation by taking a winning run into the All-Star break. They've won four of their last five with an improved offense that is averaging 92.0 points per game since June 20.

My offensive culprit for the Mercury is former Sky guard Kahleah Copper, who led Chicago to the Finals sweep over Phoenix and earned MVP honors when the teams met in 2021. Copper is averaging a modest 14.6 points per game in 10 games against the Sky, but in her last four games against them, she's scored an average of 21.5 ppg.

My Prediction: Over 172.5 (-114)

• Chicago has been a strong over play much of the season, sailing north of the total in 12 of its 19 games this season. The Sky have gone over in seven of their last eight games. The Mercury, meanwhile, have stayed under in their last two games, but have the big guns to push the tempo, answering Chicago's attack. Four of the last six meetings have gone over and I expect tonight to land on at least 176.

WNBA Best Bets: Chicago Sky at Phoenix Mercury Bonus Bet

• Spread: Chicago +0.5 (-111) | Phoenix -0.5 (-115)
• Total: O/U 42.5 (-115/-113)

The Mercury have seven games left before the All-Star break, and if they want to get closer to the playoff field, it's imperative to win at least five of those games. The only way they will win games is to dictate the pace early. They come into tonight's game riding a three-game win streak, with an offense that has scored no less than 89 points.

The Mercury rank fourth in the league, averaging 22.4 points per first quarter this season. But during their three-game win streak, since June 24, Phoenix ranks second with 26.7 points per first quarter.

My Prediction: Phoenix Mercury 1Q -0.5 (-115)

• Coupling nicely with Phoenix's first-quarter numbers this season is its defensive effort. The Mercury are holding teams to 21.2 points in the opening period, sixth-lowest in the league. That sets up nicely against Chicago, which ranks dead last in the league with 19.7 first-quarter points per game.

W.G. Ramirez is a veteran sports writer from Las Vegas and a Senior Staff Analyst at Ballislife Bets. Follow him on X at @WillieGRamirez.