WNBA Best Bets (July 9): Dream vs. Storm, Mercury vs. Fever, Fire vs. Aces Odds & Picks

Three games on the WNBA card tonight, and it begins in the A-T-L, where the Atlanta Dream host the Seattle Storm for a nonconference clash that has more meaning than it might have a couple of weeks back. The Dream were once atop many power polls, opening the season on win streaks of 4-1, 7-3, and 12-4. Now, they've lost five in a row and are in jeopardy of sliding out of the playoff picture.

The Storm have been playing better of late and arrive after opening a five-game road trip with a win in Los Angeles. Tip-off is at 8 p.m. Eastern with the game being broadcast on Amazon.

(Photo by Melissa Tamez/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

The Indiana Fever and Phoenix Mercury renew what's been a contentious series that started in Indianapolis with back-to-back tussles that culminated with the now-notorious incident between Alyssa Thomas and Caitlin Clark. After returning to the lineup for last night's loss in Los Angeles, Clark is expected to sit this one out with her ongoing back injury — a conveniently strategic move for the Fever, who close their road trip in Las Vegas on Sunday.

Aliyah Boston sat last night as Clark made her return. Boston will play tonight and Clark will watch. The game tips at 10 p.m. ET and is the second of a doubleheader on Amazon.

Finally, in Portland, the Las Vegas Aces will take the court for the first time since waiving Sixth Player of the Year candidate Chennedy Carter, and will face an upset-minded Fire squad that just went into Seattle and beat the Storm by five. This is a one-off home game before four more on the road, and the Fire have been off for four days. They'll also be out for revenge after the Aces won the first meeting a month ago, 105-89, in Las Vegas.

This game also tips at 10 p.m. ET, and can be found on WNBA League Pass.

Thursday's WNBA Odds & Game Predictions

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Let's take a look at the odds and my best bets for Thursday (odds via FanDuel):

WNBA Best Bets (July 9): Seattle Storm at Atlanta Dream

• Spread: Seattle +10.5 (-108) | Atlanta -10.5 (-112)
• Moneyline: Seattle (+410) | Atlanta (-590)
• Total: O/U 168.5 (-108/-112)

I refuse to believe the Atlanta Dream are suddenly a bad team. What I do know is that when they bounce back, it'll be an unfortunate situation for the victims. Well, tonight's that night, as one of the Dream's losses during this skid was in Seattle. Now it's time for revenge. They'll host a Seattle team that is being outscored on the road by an average final of 87.2 to 76.2.

Atlanta's starting lineup is averaging 72 points per game, with Angel Reese turning in a double-double of 14.9 points and 11.8 rebounds per game. The biggest offensive star tonight, though, could be Allisha Gray, whose 14.8 career scoring average against the Storm is her fourth-highest against any other opponent.

• My Prediction: Atlanta Dream -10.5 (-112)

The Dream come into tonight on a 6-2 run in Atlanta, and take a step down in caliber of play after losing to the most stringent defense in the league, an 88-83 setback to the Golden State Valkyries. And with Allisha Gray averaging 20.0 ppg at home this season, look for this offense to come to life.

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WNBA Best Bets (July 9): Indiana Fever at Phoenix Mercury

• Spread: Indiana +1.5 (-118) | Phoenix -1.5 (-104)
• Moneyline: Indiana (-106) | Phoenix (-114)
• Total: O/U 171.5 (-106/-114)

This could very well be the quietest and cleanest game we've seen this season. After all the theatrics, finger-pointing, flopping and throat punching in the first two meetings, I would imagine these teams will be looking to get in and out of this game unscathed in the final meeting of the season. The Fever followed back-to-back wins over the Sparks and in Las Vegas with a loss in Los Angeles last night. Though one would think they could have weary legs, the Fever are playing just their third game of July.

The Mercury, who are 3-7 at home this season, will be playing their final game of a three-game homestand, and come into this one after a shocking loss to the Chicago Sky. Phoenix turned in its lowest scoring output of the season in the 77-66 loss, and if it plays this one conservatively and cautiously, it might get caught looking past the Fever and ahead to Saturday's game in Las Vegas.

• My Prediction: Indiana Fever +1.5 (-118)

The Fever are 3-0 without Caitlin Clark in the lineup, and while some may say it's a sample size, it's glaring enough considering how many people make a big deal about her. Bottom line is, the Fever seem to be a more cohesive unit with less drama and more focus on basketball when she's watching, not playing.

WNBA Best Bets (July 9): Las Vegas Aces at Portland Fire

• Spread: Las Vegas -8.5 (-110) | Portland +8.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Las Vegas (-400) | Portland (+300)
• Total: O/U 174.5 (-108/-112)

While we don't know what took place behind closed doors at Aces headquarters, we know that Chennedy Carter is no longer welcome in the building. Las Vegas' locker room has always promoted a safe-space culture, so for Carter to blow an opportunity, I have to believe the Aces will feel as if they've rid themselves of any negative vibes.

It's no knock on Portland, but if the Aces are looking for a game to bounce back with, after Sunday's embarrassing loss to the Fever, it's against the expansion Fire. I expect to see Jackie Young or Jewell Loyd have a field day from long range, as the only time the Aces shot 50 percent from beyond the arc was against the Fire.

• My Prediction: Las Vegas Aces -8.5 (-110)

The Aces are 4-1 after a loss this season, winning those four games by an average margin of 15.5 points per win. In all five games after a loss this season, the average margin is a plus-10.8 points per game. With the league-tying second-highest scoring offense that averages 90.0 ppg, expect the Aces to erupt in Oregon.

W.G. Ramirez is a veteran sports writer from Las Vegas and a Senior Staff Analyst at Ballislife Bets. Follow him on X at @WillieGRamirez.