WNBA Best Bets (June 26): Mystics vs. Sun, Fire vs. Sky, and Dream vs. Valkyries Odds & Picks

WNBA fans will have some choices to make tonight when placing their bets. Do they back the Mystics to take down the struggling Sun? Will the Fire light up the Sky in Chicago? Can Atlanta only dream of winning against the Valkyries in San Francisco? I’ll try to answer these questions and more in today’s WNBA Best Bets & Odds article.

But before we can discuss the best bets for the game, let’s take a look at the odds for each contest.

(Photo by Melissa Tamez/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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WNBA Odds for Friday, June 26 (FanDuel)

Odds provided by FanDuel

Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun

• Spread: Washington -3.5 (-115) | Connecticut +3.5 (-105)
• Moneyline: Washington -170 | Connecticut +138
• Total: O/U 164.5 (-112/-108)

Portland Fire vs. Chicago Sky

• Spread: Portland +4.5 (-105) | Chicago -4.5 (-115)
• Moneyline: Portland +154 | Chicago -192
• Total: O/U 172.5 (-114/-106)

Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries

• Spread: Atlanta -1.5 (-108) | Golden State +1.5 (-112)
• Moneyline: Atlanta -118 | Golden State -104
• Total: O/U 163.5 (-114/-106)

Portland vs. Chicago and Atlanta vs. Golden State are rematches from games played on Wednesday. Chicago was the betting favorite at home for just the third time this season. it was their second win of the season as the underdog.

As for Washington and Connecticut, the Sun were the home favorite (-2.5) the last time these two teams met (June 17), but the Mystics walked away winners, 88-81.

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Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun

Washington can be a tough team to get a read on. Over the last five, it has had the second least productive offense in the league, averaging 79.6 points per game. On the defensive end, they Mystics been stingy, allowing 81.4 points per game (third-best). But if you dig a little deeper, you can see that they’ve been playing decent basketball with wins over two of the best teams in the league, Minnesota and New York.

They also have losses to each of those teams, which shows the inconsistency with which they play.

However, I do not believe the Sun can play well enough to turn that into an advantage. Yes, they dominated the Sky in their last game (92-63). But prior to that game, they let Toronto score 100+ points in two of their last four games, lost seven in a row and nine of their last 10.

• My Mystics vs. Sun Pick: Washington ML (-170, FanDuel)

Not having Aneesah Morrow available is certainly a blow to the Sun. Washington has the lowest-rated offense in the league over the last five games (98.8). But with solid scoring threats in players like Sonia Citron and Michaela Onyenwere, they’ll have enough firepower to beat Connecticut again.

Portland Fire vs. Chicago Sky

Games like this one always feel like trap games to me. We just saw Chicago dominate Portland 101-78. The game looked like a playoff contender stomping on a cellar dweller rather than two teams with losing records. But it wasn’t the first time Chicago beat Portland this season.

The Sky got the win back in the season opener (May 9) as well, 98-83.

But can we really trust this Chicago team to run it back and win two in a row? This is a team that had lost six in a row prior to Wednesday’s win vs. Portland. The Sky got crushed by arguably the worst team in the league, the Sun (92-63). However, they gave Dallas, New York, and Indiana pretty good games. Similar efforts could certainly result in a win vs. the Fire, and it probably will, since there is no reason to believe Portland should win. The Fire have been playing abysmal defense lately, allowing 97 points per game over their last five (No. 12 in the league). They also had the lowest-rated defense in that stretch (123.4).

To be fair, they won two of their last five games. But when they lost, they lost big (by 23, 33, and 16 points).

• My Fire vs. Sky Pick: Chicago ML (-192, FanDuel)

It isn’t a very sexy pick at that price, but you have to keep in mind that the Sky are a 5-12 team for a reason. Can we trust them to play two solid games in a row? The last time they did was the season opener vs. Portland and the following game vs. Golden State. However, with Portland forgetting to play defense in recent games, I’m still taking Skylar Diggins, Kamilla Cardoso and Chicago to win. I just can’t take them to cover.

Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries

This game has a unique sense of intrigue. After winning by double digits against the Dream on Wednesday, Golden State opened as the favorite for this game at -1.5, but the spread has since flipped. Atlanta is a road favorite (-1.5, -108) despite getting beaten by 11 on the same court a couple of days ago.

Why on Earth could that be? Is it because the betting public is certain Angel Reese will score more than the 10 points she had on Wednesday? Or that the Dream will do better than 4-18 from 3-point range and Golden State will not go 15-for-32 from 3-point range this time?

Could it be the public doesn’t think Gabby Williams can go for 20+ points in consecutive nights for the second time this season? Atlanta has been a good road team this year (6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS). But Golden State has the second-best defensive rating this season (102.8) and allows fewer points than any other team (78.6 per game) and the second-fewest at home (76.4 per game).

• My Dream vs. Valkyries Pick: Golden State ML (-104, FanDuel)

This game is a tough one to call. Atlanta has a solid defense as well, and it shouldn’t be overlooked. But while that should mean the Under should be in play, both teams tend to go over their point totals more often than the Under (the Over is 10-8 for Golden State and 9-8 for Atlanta).

If Atlanta had that one go-to scoring threat, I might lean toward taking it to win. But it doesn't. Instead, the Dream have a starting five that all average in double digits per game. In the big picture, that’s a beautiful thing that will certainly benefit them. However, in a game like this one, it would be great to have a player like Kelsey Plum, A’ja Wilson, or a Kelsey Mitchell.

Since they don’t, I’m taking the Valkyries.