WNBA Best Bets (May 17): Las Vegas Aces at Atlanta Dream Odds & Prediction Plus More Picks

The WNBA season rolls on today with an exciting four-game slate kicking off at 1:30 p.m. EST with the Las Vegas Aces visiting the Atlanta Dream. Later in the day, we’ll see the Indiana Fever host the Seattle Storm (6 p.m. EST), and the day wraps up with the Chicago Sky vs. Minnesota Lynx and the Toronto Tempo vs. the Los Angeles Sparks.

We are just a few games into the new WNBA season, and it has been interesting to say the least. I certainly didn’t have the Portland Fire getting its first win against the New York Liberty in its second game or the Atlanta Dream being the last undefeated team (and today is their first home game).

(Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)

WNBA Best Bets for May 17

Let’s check out the odds for each game and discuss how each may play out.

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Las Vegas Aces at Atlanta Dream

• Spread: Las Vegas Aces -3.5 (-104) | Atlanta Dream +3.5 (-118)
• Moneyline: Las Vegas Aces -160 | Atlanta Dream +130
• Total: O/U 172.5 (-115/-105)

Odds via FanDuel

Expectations started pretty high for Atlanta when the Dream finished the 2025 regular season with 30 wins. But then they went out and acquired one of the best young players in the league, Angel Reese, and they got even higher. While it is still too soon to pass judgment on the state of the team, one thing is certain: so far, so good.

The Dream have only two games under their metaphorical belt, but they have won both (on the road) and are the last undefeated team in the league without playing a single game at home. To be fair, both games were close, as they beat Minnesota by 1 and Dallas by 5. But playing a team like the defending champs will certainly be a solid measuring stick.

Las Vegas definitely got the season started on the wrong foot with a 99-66 beatdown at the hands of the Phoenix Mercury. But it has since bounced back well with a 27-point win over Los Angeles and a pair of victories over the Connecticut Sun.

But you could make a case that their 3-1 record is not a good indicator for how good the Aces really are. Connecticut is the only winless team in the league, has the lowest-scoring offense, and has allowed a league-high 98.5 points per game. Los Angeles hasn’t been much better. Only the Sun has a worse point differential than the Sparks have (-10.7 to -18.5).

A’ja Wilson leads the Aces and the league (tied with Kelsey Plum) in scoring with 26.3 points per game. Allisha Gray leads the Dream with 25 points per game. The Angel Reese trade has paid off as she leads the league in rebounding with 15 per game.

Both teams will be down two players: Janiah Barker and Dana Evans are out for Las Vegas, and Atlanta will be missing Rhyne Howard and Brionna Jones.

My Pick: Atlanta ML (+130)

We have not seen the Aces play a good, solid game yet. Wilson has been her usual brilliant self, but she may not be enough for Vegas to get the win against a good Atlanta team. The Dream will be down two players with Howard and Jones sidelined, but the defense should still be solid. It has the third-best defensive rating in the league at 98.8.

With 84 points per game, the Atlanta offense ranks No. 10, but teams have been scoring at a pretty high rate so far this season. Las Vegas ranks third in scoring with 92.5 points per game.

This should be a great game between two early contenders. But I’m not sold on the Aces’ greatness at this point since they’ve just beaten up the league’s worst teams. I wouldn’t call either of Atlanta’s wins ground-breaking, but its defense makes the Atlanta moneyline a solid value play.

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Seattle Storm at Indiana Fever

• Spread: Seattle Storm +11.5 (-108) | Indiana Fever -11.5 (-112)
• Moneyline: Seattle Storm +440 | Indiana Fever -650
• Total: O/U 175.5 (-115/-105)

Odds via FanDuel

You always have to be a little careful when it comes to betting on the Indiana Fever. Not that they are a bad team by any definition. But the spreads tend to be a bit higher than maybe they should be because fans want to get behind Caitlin Clark.

With how the Fever have been playing defense so far this season (or not playing, depending on your outlook), 11.5 points feels like an awful high number to cover. Yes, even for a team averaging 97.7 points per game with two 100+ point efforts under its belt. Both 100+ point nights ended in losses because the team couldn’t pull through on the defensive end. Through three games, the Fever rank No. 11 in defensive rating at 108.6.

Then again, Seattle may be a team they can crush. The Storm have not been playing great defense either; they rank No. 9 in defensive rating at 106.1. Seattle has been struggling to put points on the board this season. The Storm are second-to-last in points scored with just 80.7 per game.

Kelsey Mitchell and Caitlin Clark are currently third and fourth in the WNBA in scoring with 25.7 and 25.3 points per game, respectively. Dominique Malonga, last year’s No. 2 WNBA draft pick, leads the Storm in scoring with 16 points per game.

My Pick: OVER 175.5 (-115)

With the Storm missing Malonga, Katie Lou Samuelson, Taylor Thierry, and Taina Mair, part of me wants to take Indiana to cover this massive spread. But I can’t get past the two 100+ point games the Fever defense has allowed. Seattle lacks scoring threats, but that may not matter much against this defense.

However, with so many players out for Seattle, Indiana should have a solid day on the scoreboard, even if Aliyah Boston does not play (she is listed as a game-time decision). They’ll do the bulk of the work with the Storm offense doing enough to send the final score over the listed total.

Chicago Sky at Minnesota Lynx

• Spread: Chicago Sky +4.5 (-106) | Minnesota Lynx -4.5 (-114)
• Moneyline: Chicago Sky +176 | Minnesota Lynx -220
• Total: O/U 167.5 (-110/-110)

Odds via FanDuel

I am not entirely certain what to make of the Chicago Sky yet this season. The offense exploded for 98 points in the opener (albeit against an expansion team, the Portland Fire). But then their second game was a low-scoring defensive battle vs. Golden State (69-63). While they put up a solid fight against Phoenix, they still lost by eight, 91-83.

It could just be that it is way too soon to draw any conclusions about them. After all, they traded away arguably their best player in the offseason, Angel Reese. Four of the team’s top five scorers played for someone else last year (Rickea Jackson, Skylar Diggins, Jacy Sheldon, and Gabriela Jaquez).

At the same time, it is hard to know what we have in the Minnesota Lynx. The Lynx lost a few role players from last season’s excellent squad to free agency, and Napheesa Collier has yet to play as she recovers from ankle surgery.

Minnesota’s front court took another hit with Emma Čechová going down against Dallas. Čechová is now out for the season after tearing her ACL. But injuries will impact Chicago in this game as well, with DiJonai Carrington, Azurá Stevens, and Courtney Vandersloot ruled out. Diggins is listed as a game-time decision.

My Pick: UNDER 167.5 (-110)

I like Chicago to win because of how well it is playing defense. But I don’t know if we can trust its defense with so many players out. I’m not sold on Minnesota establishing an offensive identity either with Collier out to start the season. We’ve seen some solid individual performances, but as a team, it has been inconsistent.

With so much uncertainty surrounding both teams due to injuries and the early stage of the season, the Under is the best bet in my mind. Chicago’s defense will still be good enough, despite the injuries, to keep the Minnesota offense close to 80 points. The Sky’s offense is unpredictable, but since they have averaged 83.3 points per game, we can probably expect a lower number.

Toronto Tempo at Los Angeles Sparks

• Spread: Toronto Tempo +7.5 (-106) | Los Angeles Sparks -7.5 (-114)
• Moneyline: Toronto Tempo +250 | Los Angeles Sparks -325
• Total: O/U 174.5 (-115/-105)

Odds via FanDuel

Expectations are always lower for expansion teams when the first season gets underway. In a way, you could say Toronto has already surpassed expectations by getting its first win in just its second game (vs. Seattle, 86-73). But then it followed that game up with a 99-95 loss to the Sparks in Los Angeles on Friday

As for the Sparks, expectations were not extraordinarily high heading into the season. But many saw reason for hope with the team’s talented core of Kelsey Plum, Nneka Ogwumike, Dearica Hamby, Cameron Brink, and Ariel Atkins leading the way. Instead, they’ve underwhelmed, getting blasted by the Las Vegas Aces in their season opener and losing to Indiana before getting their first win Friday against the Tempo.

Plum leads the Sparks and the league in scoring (tied with A’ja Wilson) with 26.3 points per game. Marina Mabrey leads the Tempo in scoring with 20 points per game, followed by Brittney Sykes with 19.7.

My Pick: Toronto +7.5 (-106)

There is nothing about the Sparks that tells me they should be 7.5-point favorites in this game. Yes, they just scored 99 points against a Toronto defense that had been playing well up to that point. But the Sparks have been giving up 95.7 points per game and allowing teams to shoot 52% from the floor. While Toronto has shot a league low 38.6% from the floor, it has some solid shooters on the roster in Mabrey, Sykes, and Nyara Sabally.

Neither team is great, which means either has a shot at winning today. But after playing a solid, competitive game on Friday, if Toronto does not win, it will stay within seven.