WNBA Best Bets Today (August 21): Player Props, Odds & Predictions

The WNBA is back and there are three games on the Friday slate. In this article, you will find my best bets for Aug. 21. Let's analyze them below.

(Photo by Ellen Schmidt/NBAE via Getty Images)

Set to take place in the nation's capital, Olivia Miles and the Minnesota Lynx (30-7, 16-2 away) will face Sonia Citron and the Washington Mystics (24-14, 13-6 home). The Lynx are riding a five-game win streak and enter today's contest as 2.5-point spread favorites on the road.

Minnesota is 9-1 over the last 10 games and split the series 1-1 with the Mystics so far. The Lynx hold the top spot in the standings with a four-game lead over the Golden State Valkyries, while the Washington Mystics sit sixth in the standings. Needless to say, this is a high-stakes game for both teams.

In the Windy City, the Golden State Valkyries (25-10, 10-5 away) will face the Chicago Sky (14-22, 2-9 home). With a 7-3 record over the last 10 games, the Valkyries sit second in the standings and four games behind the Lynx for the No. 1 spot. Despite the Sky's two-game winning streak, they remain 6.5 games back of the Dallas Wings for the eighth and final playoff spot. Today, the Valkyries are tabbed as 6.5-point favorites on the road.

The last matchup of today pits the two newest expansion franchises. The Portland Fire (15-20, 7-10 away) will face the Toronto Tempo (10-25, 6-12 home) in Canada. While both squads have been riddled by injuries, the Tempo have already been eliminated from playoff contention. Portland stays alive at 15-20, but remains six games back of the Wings for the final playoff spot.

If you're hoping to find more sports and WNBA betting promotions, Ballislife Bets has put together a list of the best sports betting offers here.

WNBA Betting Odds And Schedule For Friday, August 21 (FanDuel)

If you are betting on the WNBA games today, welcome!

All three games will air on ION and WNBA League Pass starting at 7:30 p.m. ET. Tonight will conclude with the Fire and Tempo at 10 p.m. ET.

Let's take a look at my three best bets, player prop plays, and predictions for the Friday, Aug. 21 WNBA games.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

WNBA Best Bets (August 21)

• Minnesota Lynx -2.5 (-105 DraftKings)
• Kamilla Cardoso OVER 22.5 Points + Rebounds (-125 Fanatics)
• Carla Leite 18+ Points (-104 DraftKings)

Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics Best Bets

Minnesota Lynx -2.5

I'm locking in the Minnesota Lynx to cover the 2.5-point spread against the Mystics today.

The Lynx have primarily been the undisputed No. 1 team in the WNBA all season long and hold the top spot in the standings with a 30-7 record. Riding a five-game win streak, this is a team that's 9-1 over the last 10 games SU, 9-0 since the All-Star break, and 14-1 SU over the last 15 games.

Dominant isn't even the word to use here. The Lynx have been crushing teams left and right. Mind you, Napheesa Collier is out and will not play tonight. Through 37 games, the Lynx boast a WNBA best 10.6 NET rating and +8.5 point differential.

The Lynx are an elite team, but also have been excellent when covering the spread. With a record of 21-15-1 ATS, the Lynx are 12-6 ATS on the road and 4-1 ATS over the last five games.

Let's forget the fact that the Mystics are 16-6 ATS as underdogs and Washington won the 13.5-point spread and upset the Lynx 84-79 on June 21. And let's not forget that the Lynx barely scraped by the Mystics 78-76 on June 24.

However, that was nearly two months ago, and the Lynx are firing on all cylinders.

As far as covering the spread goes, the Lynx are 4-1 ATS over the last five games, boasting a +44 point differential over that span and an average of +8.8 points per game. Not only did they shut down the Valkyries and hold them to 66 points, the Lynx got the road win by 11 points. Shooting 50% from the field and 37% from three against the top defense in the WNBA isn't too shabby.

The Lynx had no issue covering the 1.5-points spread favorites against the Aces and defeated the Wings by 13 points. I'm not saying the Mystics aren't a dangerous team—they are considered a young, sleeper squad for sure. However, the Lynx are 4-0 ATS against top-four seeded teams since Aug. 2.

Final WNBA Betting Prediction: Lynx -2.5

Over the last five games, the Lynx have been a top-four team on both ends of the court. Even without Collier, Olivia Miles, Kayla McBride, Courtney Williams, Natasha Howard and others are at the forefront of Minnesota's success. Washington is a young, tough team, led by Citron, Shakira Austin, and Kiki Iriafen. However, Minnesota just held Golden State to 66 points. I doubt they let Citron score 28 points again.

Despite Washington's success, they are 1-3 ATS over the last four games, and failed to cover back-to-back 6.5-point spreads against the Aces.

• I'm taking the Lynx to cover today. Washington lost to the Aces by 7 and 10 points. While they were strong in covering the spread earlier this season, that's seemed to have fallen off.  To me, what separates these two teams apart is the amount of offense. The Lynx average 92.2 points per game and are the best 3-point shooting team in the WNBA (39.4%). Conversely, the Mystics thrive inside the paint, but lack 3-point shooting (29.9%) and average just 81.9 points per game. Expect the Lynx defense to be overwhelming today. 

Kalshi: Pros and Cons

• CFTC-regulated
• Transparent pricing
• Low fees, no house edge
• Diverse event markets available

• Possible loss from volatility or market uncertainty

Visit Kalshi

Golden State Valkyries vs. Chicago Sky Best Bets

Kamilla Cardoso OVER 22.5 Points + Rebounds

For my second-best bet, I'm locking in Kamilla Cardoso to record over 22.5 points and rebounds.

If the Sky want to keep inching toward a playoff spot, they will have to heavily rely on Cardoso tonight. Azura Stevens is back in the lineup, but DiJonai Carrington will be out.

In her third season with the Sky, Cardoso is averaging a career-high 14.8 points and 8.8 rebounds per game. She's been as consistent as you can get, scoring double-digit points in seven straight games.

In fact, Cardoso has scored 17+ in three straight games, averaging 19.7 points per game. Not only did she score 22 against the Seattle Storm but 20 against the Valkyries just last week. Mind you, Cardoso recorded 20 points and 6 rebounds in the Sky's 91-71 loss against Golden State. In those 22 minutes, she shot 7-of-13 from the field and 6-of-8 from the line.

Overall, Cardoso has been on fire, averaging 17.6 points and 10.4 rebounds over the last 10 games.

The only difference tonight is that Kiah Stokes will be back in the lineup for the Valkyries. Even a bit undersized, the Valkyries haven't been forgiving when it comes to paint points per game (32.6).

Final WNBA Betting Prediction: Kamilla Cardoso OVER 22.5 Points + Rebounds

She has a decent matchup against Golden State, who last allowed Napheesa Collier to record 18 points and 8 rebounds. Take the points away, Cardoso has been monstrous on the glass. Recording 24 rebounds over the last two games, she's averaging 10.4 rebounds per game alone over the last five games. Since Aug. 1, Cardoso has recorded 12+ boards in 5 of the last 8 games.

• I'm taking Kamilla Cardoso to record over 22.5 points and rebounds today. She's shooting 63.2% from the restricted area, and Golden State isn't known for its interior defense. They may be a powerhouse defensively in other ways, but Cardoso has the size to overpower Golden State. 

Portland Fire vs. Toronto Tempo Best Bets

Carla Leite 18+ Points

For my third-best bet, I'm taking Carla Leite to record 18+ points against the Tempo.

There's a reason why the Fire selected Leite in the expansion draft. She's a fearless scorer, dictates the offense, and is one of the best in driving downhill. In fact, she's re-ignited her career with Portland. Through 32 games, she's averaging career-highs of 15.7 points, 2.2 rebounds, and 6.2 assists, while shooting 45.7% from the field and 38.6% from three.

Her scoring and efficiency are a night-and-day difference from her rookie season in Golden State. At 5'9" she's a point guard who is crafty, thrives in pick-and-roll situations and is clutch in game-time decisions (especially overtimes). With as many injuries as Portland has faced, expect Leite to step up big today.

Back from injury, Leite is coming off a 23-point performance against the Mercury and has cleared this prop in four of the last six games. Over that span, she's put up an average of 16.5 points per game.

This is a nice matchup for Leite against a Tempo defense that ranks dead last in defensive rating (115.7). While Brittney Sykes is back in the lineup for Toronto, the Tempo have been forgiving to guards.

This year, they allow 44.2 points to guards per game, and Caitlin Clark (24 points) and Jordin Canada (20 points) recently cleared this line.

Leite is averaging 17.8 points over the last 10 games and boasts a 29% usage rate this season. I'm not terribly worried about the efficiency and shot volume.

Final WNBA Betting Prediction: Carla Leite 18+ Points

This is one of my top locks today as the Tempo allow opponents to score the most points per game (94.3).  Not to mention teams are shooting 47.5% from the field against Toronto. In the last matchup against Toronto, Leite lit up the defense for 27 points in 30 minutes while shooting 5-of-12 from the field, 2-of-5 from three, and 15-of-17 from the line.

• I'm taking Carla Leite to score 18+ points today. I doubt she will get to the line 17 times again, but was efficient in the pick-and-roll game last matchup. In addition, she wasn't afraid to pull contested shots and was a force driving downhill. Lock in this prop and get it at a great price.