WNBA Best Bets (Sept. 17): Odds, Spread Picks & Predictions for Thursday

The WNBA returns Thursday following its extended break for the 2026 FIBA Women’s Basketball World Cup, opening the final stretch of the regular season with a compelling five-game card. After more than two weeks without league action, teams must quickly rediscover their rhythm while reintegrating players who spent the interruption competing internationally.

(Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)

That adjustment creates an unusual handicapping challenge. Some players enjoyed valuable rest and recovery, while others return after navigating demanding travel schedules and high-intensity tournament basketball. Coaches must balance the urgency of the standings against fatigue, reduced practice time and the possibility of temporarily modified rotations.

The Postseason Race Resumes

Those variables matter most as the league enters its home stretch. Minnesota and Golden State remain positioned atop the standings, while Las Vegas, Atlanta and Indiana continue pursuing favorable playoff seeds. New York, Washington and Dallas are involved in a congested battle near the postseason cutoff, making every remaining victory increasingly valuable.

The teams outside the playoff field also cannot be dismissed. Eliminated clubs can play freely, evaluate younger players and capitalize on opponents managing workloads. That dynamic can create additional volatility, particularly when rested underdogs face favorites whose leading players recently returned from the World Cup.

Five Games, Multiple Betting Angles

Thursday’s schedule features Connecticut visiting Atlanta, Washington traveling to Chicago and Los Angeles meeting Dallas. The late window includes Phoenix at Portland and Las Vegas at Seattle. The card presents everything from substantial favorites to near pick’em matchups, providing opportunities across sides and totals.

With limited time remaining, motivation matters. But so do travel, fatigue, rotation stability and market movement. Identifying which teams are best prepared to handle the transition back to league competition will be essential when attacking Thursday’s board.

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WNBA Betting Odds For Thursday, Sept. 17 (Odds courtesy FanDuel)

Connecticut Sun at Atlanta Dream

• Spread: Connecticut +14.5 (-105) | Atlanta -14.5 (-115)
• Moneyline: Connecticut (+820) | Atlanta (-1600)
• Total: O/U 169.5 (-110/-110)

Washington Mystics at Chicago Sky

• Spread: Washington -3.5 (-108) | Chicago +3.5 (-112)
• Moneyline: Washington (-162) | Chicago (+132)
• Total: O/U 167.5 (-108/-112)

Los Angeles Sparks at Dallas Wings

• Spread: Los Angeles +7.5 (-106) | Dallas -7.5 (-114)
• Moneyline: Los Angeles (+260) | Dallas (-340)
• Total: O/U 176.5 (-110/-110)

Phoenix Mercury at Portland Fire

• Spread: Phoenix -1.5 (-106) | Portland +1.5 (-114)
• Moneyline: Phoenix (-118) | Portland (-104)
• Total: O/U 175.5 (-118/-104)

Las Vegas Aces at Seattle Storm

• Spread: Las Vegas -9.5 (-105) | Seattle +9.5 (-115)
• Moneyline: Las Vegas (-430) | Seattle (+320)
• Total: O/U 173.5 (-110/-110)

WNBA Best Bets For Thursday, Sept. 17

Thursday’s card requires more than simply backing the teams with the better records. The World Cup interruption created different circumstances across the league, separating rested rosters from those trying to reincorporate key players on a short turnaround.

The strongest betting opportunities emerge where motivation, matchup advantages and situational value intersect. Washington has meaningful postseason incentive against an inconsistent Chicago team, while Portland receives home-court value in a near-even matchup with Phoenix. Seattle offers a different angle as a sizable home underdog facing a Las Vegas roster that may be looking to manage minutes after the international break.

Current form cannot be ignored, but neither can the possibility of early rust or late-game workload management. With those factors incorporated into the handicap, the following three wagers stand out as the best bets on the WNBA's five-game return card (Odds via FanDuel):

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Washington Mystics −3.5 over Chicago Sky (-108)

Washington entered the FIBA break with the stronger profile at 24-16, compared with Chicago’s 15-25 record. The Mystics rank third in allowing only 83.0 points per game and third in defensive rating at 103.8. Chicago is surrendering 89.7 points per contest and has a 107.6 defensive rating, contributing to a -3.0 net rating.

Washington also played at the WNBA’s slowest pace. That deliberate approach should help the Mystics control possessions and force fast-paced Sky into a less comfortable half-court game.

The season’s first meeting demonstrated Washington’s matchup advantage. The Mystics defeated Chicago 90-72, using a 27-18 third quarter to pull away while shooting 44% from the field.

Shakira Austin produced 17 points, eight rebounds and three steals, while Kiki Iriafen added 15 points and 11 boards. That interior combination gives Washington the size and physicality to compete with Chicago on the glass without sacrificing defensive versatility.

Mystics Hold Statistical, Betting Edge

Washington entered the break with a 22-18 ATS record, the WNBA’s second-strongest mark, including a 2-1 ATS spurt just before the break. Chicago, meanwhile, is 21-19 ATS, after failing to cover its last three and six of its last eight. The Mystics’ defensive consistency creates a more dependable floor following the extended layoff, while the Sky’s fast-paced but inefficient profile brings considerably more volatility.

The market opened Washington -4.5 before dropping to -3.5, providing a discounted number despite the Mystics’ 18-point victory in the previous meeting. Back the superior defensive team and play Washington up to -4. Head-to-head, the Mystics are 7-3 ATS over the last 10 games and 2-1 ATS against Chicago over the last three games.

Portland Fire +1.5 over Phoenix Mercury (-114)

Portland entered the FIBA break with the better record at 16-24, while Phoenix stood 14-26. The Fire also owned the stronger offensive profile, averaging 86.6 points compared with the Mercury’s 84.2. Portland produced 87.3 points per game at home, matching the 87.3 Phoenix allowed overall.

The Fire won the most recent meeting 88-85 in Phoenix despite making only 27% of their 3-pointers and 66.7% of their free throws. Portland’s trapping defense disrupted the Mercury in the fourth quarter, while Carla Leite scored 15 points to complete the comeback.

Recent Betting Form Favors Fire

Portland went 7-3 ATS over its final 10 games before the break, while Phoenix finished 3-7 ATS during the same stretch. The Mercury were only 17-23 ATS for the season and went 7-8 outright as a moneyline favorite. Portland stood at 20-20 ATS despite being an underdog in 32 of its 40 games.

The Fire’s perimeter production also provides an important matchup weapon. In fact, they are tied for second in the WNBA with 10.4 made 3-pointers per game while shooting 35.2% from beyond the arc. The Fire generated those numbers despite ranking only 12th in pace, showing their offensive success came more from spacing and efficiency than high possession volume.

Phoenix opened as a 2.5-point favorite before the market moved toward Portland, reducing the spread to 1.5. With the superior record, home court, stronger recent ATS form and an earlier road victory in the matchup, Portland offers the better value. Take the Fire +1.5.

Seattle Storm +9.5 over Las Vegas Aces (-115)

Las Vegas faces a difficult turnaround after Chelsea Gray and Jackie Young played all six World Cup games, totaling 116 and 135 minutes, while Stephanie Talbot carried an even heavier workload for Australia, with 31.8 minutes per game. Now the defending champions open the final stretch in Seattle, where they've failed to cover two of their last three trips there. The Aces' average scoring margin the last nine meetings against Seattle is just +3.5 overall; in their six wins during the same span, the average margin is +8.6, which would keep Seattle inside the spread.

Las Vegas is unquestionably superior, entering the final two weeks of the season at 27-13, while Seattle stands at 8-32. The Aces own a +4.7 road scoring margin, averaging 91.5 points while allowing 86.8. Seattle carries a −0.6 home differential, scoring 85.1 and surrendering 85.7. Those splits suggest a 4.1-point advantage for Las Vegas - well below the posted spread.

Seattle Outperforming Market Expectations

The Storm have seemingly performed better than the market expects. Seattle went 22-18 ATS before the break, compared with Las Vegas at 20-20 ATS. The Aces won the first meeting 101-91 but failed to cover as 15.5-point favorites, showing how difficult it is to lay an elevated number against the Storm, who are on a blistering 12-3 ATS run against playoff-bound teams.

The Storm are also on a 6-1 ATS run at home against playoff-bound teams.

Yes, the Aces should win, but covering nearly double digits requires sustained production from a veteran core coming off an international tournament. Look for an open backdoor if the Aces protect their stars after building a comfortable lead, especially with Seattle averaging the fifth-best 22.8 points per fourth quarter at home in the WNBA.

Overall, Seattle is 3-0 ATS vs. Las Vegas since Sept. 2025.

W.G. Ramirez is a veteran sports writer from Las Vegas and a Staff Analyst at Ballislife Bets. Follow him on X at @WillieGRamirez