WNBA Best Bets (July 16): Player Props, Odds & Predictions

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. It seemed like the New York Liberty were just jockeying for one of the top spots in the WNBA standings after opening the season with an 11-4 mark. But since June 19, the Liberty have lost seven of nine and now reside in eighth place - which would be the final playoff spot if the postseason began tonight. They were due to play the Dallas Wings tonight, but the game has been postponed and moved to Monday due to travel issues.

(Photo by Tim Heitman/NBAE via Getty Images)

Opening the night will be the seventh-place Washington Mystics, who return home after Tuesday's win over the Toronto Tempo to host the Portland Fire. It's a rematch of the four-overtime marathon back on June 28 in Washington, D.C., where the Mystics outlasted the Fire, 124-123. Washington has won two straight and continues to surprise many with its consistent play. The Fire and Tempo are both 10-14, three games off the pace in the playoff picture. Tip-off is at 7 p.m., with the game being televised on NBA TV.

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Here are the odds for Thursday's WNBA games (odds via FanDuel):

Portland Fire at Washington Mystics

• Spread: Portland +6.5 (-115) | Washington -6.5 (-105)
• Moneyline: Portland (+205) | Washington (-260)
• Total: O/U 162.5 (-110/-110)

The Mystics have won seven of 10 since June 17 thanks to a stringent defense that has allowed the league's second-lowest 79.1 points per game in that span. During the 10-game stretch, the Mystics rank No. 1 with their opponents' field-goal percentage (.408) while also limiting opponents to a league-low .264 from 3-point range. Their +1.7 scoring margin is fifth-best over the same timeframe.

The Fire arrive for their third game of a four-game road trip after winning in Atlanta and losing in Connecticut. Certainly not the way I would have thought the first two games have gone, but there's a lot to this team that's been confusing. Portland opened the season 6-4, with two wins over the Liberty and one against the Indiana Fever, but is 4-10 since then.

Dating back to June 2, the Fire rank dead last in allowing 11.2 per game fast-break points. They also rank 14th in allowing 18.8 points off turnovers and 14.5 second-chance points.

My Best Bet & Prediction: Portland +6.5 (-115)

• It's my experience that when everything points in one direction, you go the other way. I'll play contrarian and buck the numbers in this showdown. How does a team like the Fire go into Atlanta and throw 102 points on the board and win outright, but then lose by three in Connecticut? This team knows how to compete, as evidenced by its 7-3 ATS run, including three of four covers on the road. So, with Washington mired in a 2-4 ATS skid, including 1-3 at home, I'll take the road dog.

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WNBA Over/Under Bet for July 16

My Prediction: Over 162.5 (-110)

• Considering these two put up 247 points in four overtimes the last time they met, I believe we're in store for another high-scoring game. Granted, they got into the 240s because of four extra frames, but make note that they scored 174 points in regulation. Since mid-June, the Fire have gone over in seven of nine games, with an average of 89.9 points per game. Yes, the Mystics have seen success with their defense, but they've still scored 81 or more points in 12 of their 22 games this season. And keep in mind, the Mystics have played five of their last seven games in D.C., with the two road games in Connecticut (June 26) and Toronto (Tuesday). It's not as if we're talking about a tired basketball team. This one will land high.

Player Prop Bet for July 16

My Prediction: Carla Leite OVER 15.5 points (-106)

• The second-year guard is coming off an 18-point performance in Connecticut and should be revved up for another big game in D.C. She's scored 16 or more points in 11 of 22 games this season, including five of her last eight. She's averaging 16.0 points per game in July, and more importantly, 16.8 ppg. against Eastern Conference foes.When the teams met a few weeks ago, she finished with 32 points. Admittedly, she scored 17 of those in three of the four overtimes, but she's now familiar with how Washington will defend her. She's averaging 15.3 points per game, with a 15.0 clip coming on the road. That said, she's averaging 20.2 ppg. in her last five road games.