
The WNBA is back, and there's one lone matchup on the Tuesday slate. This article will include my top player prop picks, best bets, and the betting odds for the Toronto Tempo vs. the Phoenix Mercury.

(Photo by Michael Chisholm/Getty Images)
Today's late-night showdown will feature the Tempo (2-2, 1-1 away) and the Mercury (2-2, 1-1 home). It's the first time the two teams will match up, as Toronto, along with Portland, is the WNBA's newest expansion franchise. Tempo head coach Sandy Brondello will face Phoenix, where she coached for 8 seasons and won a WNBA championship.
The Mercury continue their home stand and are tabbed as 7.5-point and -320 moneyline favorites on FanDuel.
Toronto has surprised many with a 2-2 record, as they've recently defeated the Los Angeles Sparks, 106-96. Fueled by Brittany Sykes' career-high 38-point performance, it was the Tempo's first-ever 100+ point outing. Headlined by a million-dollar backcourt with Sykes and Marina Mabrey, rookie Kiki Rice has entered Brondello's starting five.
Despite injuries and players still overseas, the Mercury are off to a 2-2 start, and took care of business against the Chicago Sky 91-83 on Friday. Headlined by Alyssa Thomas's double-double, the Mercury also trounced the reigning champion Las Vegas Aces, 99-66 on opening night. Phoenix, who was swept by the Aces 4-0 in the 2025 WNBA Finals, took that game personally.
Just five games into the 2026 WNBA season, the Mercury have the sixth-best odds (+1800) to win the championship, and the Tempo have the fourth-best odds at +20000.
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If you're betting on the Tempo vs. Mercury WNBA matchup today, welcome! Today's outing will tip off at 10 p.m. ET and will air on local networks and WNBA League Pass.
For my first best bet for today, I placed one unit on Mercury center Natasha Mack to record over 18 points and rebounds.
From draft cut to a starter, Mack is back and healthy after missing 10 games last season due to a back injury. Now in her third season with the Mercury, Mack has taken over the reins from the post-Brittney Griner era.
In 2026, Mack is averaging 10 points, 8.3 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and 2.3 blocks, while shooting 65.2% from the field and 50% from three. Through four games, Mack ranks among the top 8 in center points per game, third in total rebounds, and offensive rebounds (2 ORPG).
Although the season is still early, Mack has made an enormous leap. The former Oklahoma State star went from 4.7 points to 10 points per game. In addition, she's averaging career-highs in rebounds, assists, blocks, and 3-point percentage.
Mack isn't one to shoot many threes, but a 65.2% field goal percentage is impressive. This season, 44% of her attempts come within the paint, where she's shooting 70%. Moreover, she's shooting 71% from the restricted area, where she takes 30% of her shots.
Speaking from a points perspective only, the Tempo have an ailing frontcourt. Isabelle Harrison and Temi Fábénlé remain out, and Nyara Sabally is out after taking a fall in Sunday's game.
Mack has been extremely effective on both ends of the floor, and recorded a double-double against the Aces in the season opener, along with 10 points and 6 rebounds against Kamilla Cardoso and the Sky.
There's a ton of talent on this Mercury team, but Mack isn't going to take the most shots. However, she's averaging 3.8 field goals made on 5.8 attempts. When she shoots, it's at a high clip. Plus, she owns the best field goal percentage on the Phoenix roster.
One area I think Mack can excel in today is the interior. She's averaging 6 paint points per game, which ranks 30th in the WNBA. Match her up against the Tempo, who allow the second-most paint points per game (45).
I do believe a bulk of this prop could come from points, but the Tempo ranks No. 13 in offensive rebound percentage, an area where Mack thrives. Given Toronto plays smaller due to injuries, they also rank No. 13 in rebound percentage (47.8%).
The Mercury boasts the third-best defensive rebound percentage (72.3%), and Mack has tallied 15 and 10 boards against the Aces and Lynx this season. We've already seen Dearica Hamby (9) and Shakira Austin (11) dominate on the boards against Toronto.
That said, Hamby tallied 40 points in two games against the Tempo, Stefanie Dolson recorded 16, and Shakira Austin erupted for 18 points. On the season, Toronto is allowing an average of 27.3 points and rebounds to centers.
I placed one unit on Mercury star Alyssa Thomas to record over 18+ rebounds and assists. My second-best bet for today, Thomas has crushed this line in several games this season. I'm doubling down, as I'm taking her to soar over 33.5 points, rebounds, and assists.
They don't call Thomas the "Engine" for nothing. Thomas was in the MVP conversation last season and is averaging a career-high 16.5 points, along with 7.5 rebounds, 8.5 assists, and 1.3 steals in four games.
Everything screams double-double, as Thomas has recorded two this season and nearly three triple-doubles. I would have taken AT to record a double-double if the odds weren't so high (-175).
We've yet to see Thomas score under 10 points alone, and I think a bulk of this prop could come from scoring alone. Thomas is not an outside shooter due to lingering shoulder injuries. Given Toronto's limited frontcourt depth, who's going to stop Thomas in transition or driving downhill?
Thomas is boasting a 25.8% usage rate–I'm expecting her to be heavily involved today. This year, she's averaging 9.0 paint points per game and 2.8 second-chance points per game. Again, this is a Tempo team that allows 45 paint points per game and 11 second-chance points!
Where I think Thomas can take advantage of tonight is the free-throw line. Toronto allows the most free-throw attempts per game (29.3), and Thomas is averaging 9.0 trips to the line per game. Plus, she's second on the team with 11.5 shot attempts per game. Plus, it helps that she's shooting 67% in the restricted area; this season, opponents are shooting 73% in the interior against Toronto.
As mentioned previously, Thomas could hit 70% of this from points, and is averaging 8.5 dimes per game. In four games alone, we've seen Thomas record 9, 11, and 8 assists against the Aces, Valkyries, and Lynx. After all, Thomas boasts a 45.3% assist percentage, which ranks her just below Caitlin Clark.
Phoenix has hoopers, including Kahleah Copper, DeWanna Bonner, and 3-point sensation Jovana Novig. While I don't trust the bench as much, the assists will be there.
We've seen Kiki Iriafen's PRA line as low as 23.5, and Nneka Ogwumike and Dominique Malonga both recorded over 25+ PRAS. While Thomas's line seems steep, she should have a clear rebound advantage against the Tempo, which ranks No. 13 in rebound percentage. Plus, Toronto allows 14 rebounds per game to forwards, and will be missing a chunk of its frontcourt–Sabally, Harrison, and Fágbénlè.
