WNBA Best Bets Today (August 16): Fever vs. Dream Odds & Predictions

The Atlanta Dream (21-12, 12-5 Home) would probably love to be in first place in the Eastern Conference. But for that to become a reality, they’ll need to beat the visiting Indiana Fever (22-12, 9-6 Away) at home today. Atlanta leads the season series, 2-1, with wins in the last two games, one in Indianapolis (June 18, 108-101) and the other at home (June 20, 113-96).

But both teams have come a long way since then. Who’s going to win today? I’ll try to answer that question and more in a moment. But let’s take a look at the betting line for this game first.

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WNBA Best Bets Today: Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream (August 16)

Here’s the betting line for this game with odds from FanDuel:

• Spread: Indiana +1.5 (-104) | Atlanta -1.5 (-118)
• Moneyline: Indiana +106 | Atlanta -130
• Total: O/U 187.5 (-110/-110)

Atlanta leads the season series with Indiana 2-1 SU and ATS. Indiana won the first game back on June 4, 83-71 in Indianapolis (the only one in which they were favored, -1.5). The Fever opened as the favorite for the second game (June 14, -1.5), but the Dream were road favorites by game time (-1.5). Atlanta went on to a high-scoring affair, 108-101.

The Fever got a shot at redemption a couple of days later in Atlanta (June 20). They went into the game as 4.5-point road dogs. But the day belonged to the home team as the Dream set a franchise record for points in a single game, winning 113-96.

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Both teams are coming into this game playing arguably their best basketball of the season. Indiana has won three in a row, and Atlanta two, but both are 8-2 in their last 10 games. The Dream were favored in all 10 and covered in three while the Fever were favored in eight and failed to cover in three.

The Over was 7-3 for Indiana in that stretch and 6-4 for Atlanta, but 1-3 for both in their last four. What does all of this tell us? It means we are going to have a heck of a game on our hands today.

Now, let’s talk about how to bet on it.

Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: My Picks

Indiana ML (+106, FanDuel)

From a statistical perspective, these are two comparable teams. Indiana is the better offensive team, but Atlanta is the better defensive one. So, how do we figure out if one has an advantage over the other?

Conventional thinking tells us to favor the home team in close matchups. Atlanta has been a good team at home, going 12-5 SU when playing at State Farm Arena. But the Dream have not been a great team ATS on their own court (6-11). Were they the better team? Sure, but were they as competitive as expected? Eh …. Indiana, on the other hand, has gone 9-6 SU and 8-7 ATS on the road. It was the road dog in six of those games and lost four of them outright (including one vs. Atlanta, June 20). In those four, the Fever were 1-3 ATS.

All this tells us is what we already know — that this is going to be a competitive game.

It is worth noting that Caitlin Clark and Aliyah Boston are both listed as game-time decisions on the injury report but considered probable to play.

In the last 10 games, Indiana has been the most dominant offense in the WNBA, scoring 101.7 points per game. Atlanta hasn’t been too far behind at 94.5 points per game (fourth best in that stretch). The Dream have been playing better defense, giving up 88.3 ppg to 91.5 for the Fever. What does this tell us?

Again — it’s going to be a really competitive game. In such a situation, my recommendation is to go with the bet that has the most value. In this case, that’s the Indiana ML at +106.

Kelsey Mitchell, Over 25.5 Points (-102, FanDuel)

Kelsey Mitchell finished under this total in two of the previous games against Atlanta this season, including the June 20 game in Atlanta. She has gone over this total in just half of Indiana’s games (17 of 34). But she has been on a roll for weeks, going over it in 12 of her last 15 games and 14 of 16 since Indiana was last in Atlanta.

In Atlanta’s last 10 games, the Dream have allowed just three players to score over 25.5 points in a game. Marina Mabrey did so twice and Jackie Young once. That does not sound promising for Mitchell, but she has been playing at an MVP-level for weeks.

With first place in the Eastern Conference on the line, this is a chance for Mitchell to prove she deserves to be in the conversation right alongside A’ja Wilson. With how well she’s been playing (123.9 offensive rating, effective field goal percentage — 62.5%, true shooting percentage — 65.9%), I’m not betting against her.

Caitlin Clark, Over 9.5 Assists (-106, FanDuel)

From a season-long perspective, the under appears to be a no-brainer for this game. Caitlin Clark’s assist total has been under in 20 of 30 games this season. But the Fever superstar has been picking her game up when it matters most as the end of the regular season draws near. Clark had over 9.5 assists in seven of her last 10 games, assisting on 42.6% of Indiana’s field goals.

To be fair, she had seven, seven, and eight in Indiana’s previous three games vs. Atlanta. Only two players have gone over this total against the Dream in Atlanta’s last 10 games (Carla Leite and Jackie Young). But like Mitchell, Clark has a great opportunity in this game to quiet the doubters and prove she can live up to the hype.

Like with Kelsey Mitchell, I’m not willing to bet against her (even vs. a solid team like Atlanta).