Key Points
- Las Vegas Aces are 10-0 vs Dallas Wings over the L10 matchups
- Aces are 0-8 ATS L 8 games
There's one game on the WNBA slate tonight between the
Las Vegas Aces
(18-11, 9-4 away) and the Dallas Wings (7-22, 5-8 home). Aiming for their first three-peat since the Houston Comets, the Aces haven't played up to par nor look like the Championship team of 2022 and 2023.
Barely scraping by the Chicago Sky 77-75, A'ja Wilson and the Aces have dropped four of their last six games, including back-to-back losses to the Minnesota Lynx. Just 2-8 against the spread in the last ten matchups, the offense has been abysmal for Vegas compared to the start of the season.
(Photo by David Becker/NBAE via Getty Images)
The WNBA leader in points with 86.9 per game, the Aces have fallen no. 9 overall in defensive rating (102.5) post-All-Star break.
Averaging a low 74.5 points in the last two matchups against the Lynx and Sky, Las Vegas is shooting just 42 percent from the floor, and haven't received much help on the offensive end aside from Wilson.
With 22 turnovers over the last two outings, the Aces are struggling to grab boards.
In fact, they were out rebounded on the glass by 20, and tallied just 17 boards against the Lynx on August 23.
Admitting "everyone has to their their job," it was Wilson who utilized a well executed screen by Kelsey Plum to secure the buzzer beating layup against the Sky. Although they secured the victory, it's truly impossible to envision which version of the Aces we can see on a nightly basis. Vastly inconsistent, betting on the Aces has been a challenge as of late.
THE ACES ARE -9.5 POINT FAVORITES AGAINST THE WINGS
One of the top defensive teams throughout the 2023 season, the Aces are tied with the Seattle Storm for the no. 4 seed, behind the New York Liberty, Connecticut Sun, and Minnesota Lynx.
- Although their offense has looked out of sync and unrecognizable at times, they have a chance for redemption against a Wings team that has the second worst record in the WNBA.
The heavy spread favorites at 9.5 points, the Aces are 10-0 against Dallas over their last ten matchups, including two victories on the 2024 WNBA season. With the money line odds juiced at -480, I will look for more value in prop bets and best bets as we move along.
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THE DALLAS WINGS HAVE +350 MONEY LINE ODDS TO DEFEAT THE LAS VEGAS ACES
After a stunning 113-110 victory over the Los Angeles Sparks, it was Arike Ogunbowale and Natasha Howard who helped the Wings come back from a 19 point deficit. Favored by 6.5 point spread odds, it ended up in a total disaster for Sparks bettors, who held a comfortable ten point lead at halftime.
Just 7-22 on the season, head coach Latricia Trammell finally has a healthy squad.
- With a win/loss record of 1-3 since the All-Star break, the Wings have struggled, shooting just 27.7 percent from beyond the arc.
- A vastly different team, the Wings released Monique Billings, and gained back Jaelyn Brown, Satou Sabally, and Maddy Siegrist from injury.
Down 0-2 against the Aces this season, the
Wings
were unable to cover the large nine and 15.5 point underdog spreads against the Aces. With a healthy squad, can Dallas narrow the gap today and prove the bookies wrong?
The Dallas Wings have +350 money line odds to defeat the Aces at home. A tall task, is this worth a shot betting on the money line? Allowing a league worst 90 points per game, it's unlikely.
- For now, I've steered clear of money line bets, and will break down my best WNBA bets between the Aces and the Wings.
If you're planning to bet on the WNBA tonight, the matchup will begin at 8 p.m. ET, set to take place at College Park Center, in Dallas, Texas. Broadcasted on WNBA League Pass, I've compiled the best bets and odds from a multitude of legal sports books.
Below are my favorite player prop and spread bets. All of my bets have been placed within FanDuel Sportsbook.
LAS VEGAS ACES VS DALLAS WINGS INJURY REPORT
LAS VEGAS ACES INJURY REPORT
DALLAS WINGS INJURY REPORT
2024 HEAD-TO-HEAD STATS: ACES VS WINGS
Season Matchups:
- Game 1: June 5: Las Vegas Aces 95, Dallas Wings 81 ( Las Vegas -9, over 167.5)
- Game 2: July 7: Las Vegas Aces 104, Dallas Wings 85 (Las Vegas -15,5, over 179)
- O/U last 10 matchups: 5-1-1
- Aces are 10-0 vs Wings over the last 10 head-to-head matchups
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SPREAD BET: LAS VEGAS ACES
It's no secret the Aces aren't playing to the level of expectations, both from a betting and fan perspective. If you bet on the WNBA, the level of talent has increased in the league, and it's clear as day any team can achieve victory on any given night.
- However, with just seven wins on the season, The Aces are the superior team on paper, and I do believe that can achieve this spread bet even when struggling.
Undefeated at 10-0 vs the Wings over their last 10 matchups, the money line is simply too juice to bet on. However, the difference in these teams is defense, and the experience in the backcourt.
Able to cover the nine and 15.5 favorable point spread, I expect the Aces to cover again tonight.
- Although posting a 10-19 against the spread record, all as favorites, the Aces are 4-9 ATS on the road.
- However, opening at 8.5 point favorites, it's imperative the Aces claim victory tonight.
- Then again, the Wings don't have A'ja Wilson, the best player in the world.
Overall, the Aces have a +16.5 point victory margin over the last two victories against the Wings, and yes I'm aware the Aces are 0-8 against the spread since July 12. Given how terrible the Wings defense has truly been, I'll lay the points tonight with the Aces.
- Dallas may be able to keep up with their bigs in the front court, however, outside of Ogunbowale, Dallas's guards can't keep up with the Aces backcourt.
WNBA PLAYER PROP BET #1: NATASHA HOWARD
NATASHA HOWARD SEASON STATS
PPG: 17.2 | FG: 46.2 % | FT: 69.6 % | REB: 7.3 | AST: 2.9 | STL: 1.5 | BLK: 1.o
- Over 7.5 Rebounds (+102 odds FanDuel)
There's no doubt having
Natasha Howard
back in the lineup for the Wings has been beneficial for not only the offense, but the boards. Second in the WNBA in opponent rebounds per game (32.8), Howard, along with Teaira McCowan are the top rebounders for Dallas.
- Averaging 7.3 boards per game, I firmly believe the odds are great for 7.5 rebounds at plus money.
- Considering the line is fair compared to her season average, I'm going with over 7.5 rebounds for +100 on FanDuel.
Satou Sabally, listed at 6'3, is fully healthy and back in the starting lineup for the Wings. Healthy for four full games, her return hasn't affected Howard, at least on the glass.
- Hitting the over in eight of the last ten games, Howard's been able to clear over 7.5 boards in three of her four games with Sabally in the lineup.
- In fact, Howard's lowest rebound total has been seven throughout her last ten matchups, which makes me believe this prop line will increase by the afternoon.
For the second consecutive year, the Wings are the WNBA leader in second chance points, and that's in large part to both Ogunbowale, McCowan, and Howard. Averaging 2.5 second chance points per game, the former Seminole has well cleared this line in three of the last four games.
- In fact, with back-to-back eight rebound performances against the Aces, Howard tallied a total of 26 rebounds in the last three meetings against Las Vegas.
THIS WNBA PROP LINE HAS EXCELLENT VALUE AT +102 ODDS
Tonight, Howard and the Wings will face a shaken up Aces lineup. With head coach Becky Hammon inserting Megan Gustafson into the starting lineup, the Aces are desperately looking for a spark they so badly need.
At 6'4, Gufaston not only replaced Alysha Clark in the lineup, she tallied 13 points and four rebounds in her first start of the season against the Sky. Even with Kiah Stokes off the bench, the Aces allow the second most rebounds per game (36.1), and rank middle of the pack in rebounding (34.1).
- Outrebounded by 24 boards in the last five games, I'm confident in Howard's prop line tonight.
Overall, the line opened up at 6.5, which I would've felt more comfortable with. However, for plus money, it's hard to fade a player who's been fairly consistent on the boards against the Aces dating back to last season.
WNBA PLAYER PROP BET #2: CHELSEY GRAY
CHELSEY GRAY SEASON STATS
PPG: 7.6 | FG: 38.5 % | FT: 79.4 % | 3PT: 28.6 % | REB: 3.0 | AST: 4.8 | STL: 0.9 | BLK: 0.7
- Over 13.5 Points and Assists (-125 odds FanDuel)
There's speculation among bettors if
Chelsea Gray
is fully healthy following an injury in the 2023 WNBA Finals. Only able to suit up for 17 games, yes her stats are going to looks vastly different compared to last season.
- With field goal percentage down by 10 percent, Gray is currently averaging 7.6 points per game, more than seven points lower compared to the 2023 WNBA season.
- And yes, her numbers have been widely inconsistent post All-Star break, starting with points per game, shot volume, and she's played less than 30 minutes in four straight games.
Tonight, I have Gray to go over 13.5 points and assists, which is a point higher than her season average. If you look at the stats, 4.8 assists per game is extremely deceiving for the Aces guard. Averaging 5-7 assists dating back to her playing days with the Sparks, I do believe her assist volume will increase.
The main facilitating and floor general for this team, the Aces cannot afford for Gray to continue her inconsistencies. If you're looking to bet on the WNBA, sure she's been inconsistent.
- However, it's important to note her points average is up (8.4), along with her assists average (5). With an 11 percent increase in three-point shooting post All-Star break, this is a positive sign for Aces fans and bettors.
OVER 13.5 POINTS AND ASSISTS HAS A 100 % HIT RATE VS DALLAS IN THE LAST 10 GAMES
Overall, the Aces need their guards to step up, and anyone other than A'ja Wilson. Aside from Wilson, the trio of Plum, Jackie Young, and Gray are the engine of this squad, and the team's success weighs heavily on them.
- Luckily for WNBA bettors, Gray has performed much more efficiently on the road, averaging 8.6 points and 5.3 assists per game.
She now faces a Wings squad that's not only the worst team defensively in the WNBA, but has allowed Gray to perform at a high level.
- Dating back to last season, Chelsea Gray cleared over 13.5 points in 10 straight games, 15 total points and rebounds in the Aces 104-85 victory over Dallas back in July.
- Tallying an averaging of 20.6 points and assists over the last five matchups against the Wings, I'm fully confident in tonight's betting player prop.
Speaking of defense, we all know it's not the Wings strong suit. Allowing Sparks Rickea Jackson to put up 25 points, Courtney Vandersloot and Leonie Fiebich respectfully scored 16 and 15 points on them.
Sure, Jacy Sheldon is more of a defensive player, however, i've yet to see the Wings pair a player alongside Ogunbowale to make a difference. Although Gray couldn't find her shot last game, 12 shot attempts is a positive sign, the most volume we've seen in five games.
WNBA PLAYER PROP BET #3: KELSEY PLUM
KELSEY PLUM SEASON STATS
PPG: 18 | FG: 41.9 % | FT: 84.6 % |3PT: 35.5 %| REB: 2.3 | AST: 4.3 | STL: 0.9 | BLK: 0
- Over 18.5 points (-102 odds FanDuel)
One of my favorite player props of the night, I'm betting on
Kelsey Plum
to score over 18.5 points. Averaging 18 points on the season, Plum has a combined 43 points scored over the last two games versus Dallas.
A quick guard that can get to the basket, Plum has the skills and quickness to expose the Wing's backcourt.
- Especially against a Wings team that allows opponents to score 90 points per game on a WNBA worst 47 percent field goal percentage.
- Allowing nearly 70 field goal attempts per game, Dallas allows the most points in the paint (42.3) which may be beneficial with Plum.
A consistent players for the Aces, even during times of struggle, Plum is receiving heavy shot volume, including 17 shot attempts against the Sky.
- Although she's hit over 18.5 points in 14 of 29 games (48 percent) this season, her ability to perform well against the Wings keeps me invested in this WNBA bet.
- For nearly plus money, Plum is averaging 21.5 points, 33.9 minutes, on 7.5 three-point attempts in two games against the Wins this year.
Read that again, Kelsey Plum is putting up 7.5 three-point attempts versus the Dallas Wings on the season.
- Putting up eight shots from downtown a game, that's a reason in itself to bet on this prop.
Overall, this is a prime matchup for Plum. I'll gladly take the over points, especially since the Wings and Aces rank top three in pace. In that case, there will be plenty of opportunities to get shots off tonight.
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