WNBA Best Bets Today (July 18): Odds & Predictions For Saturday

Tonight’s WNBA schedule features a compact three-game slate. The New York Liberty visit the Indiana Fever, while the Minnesota Lynx host the Portland Fire, with both games tipping off at 8 p.m. EST. The final matchup, Washington Mystics vs. Golden State Valkyries, gets underway 30 minutes later at 8:30 p.m. EST.

Before we get into what the WNBA Best Bets are for these games, let’s take a look at the betting lines for each game.

(Photo by David Dow/NBAE via Getty Images)

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WNBA Odds For Today (July 18)

Odds via FanDuel

New York Liberty vs. Indiana Fever

• Spread: New York -2.5 (-110) | Indiana +2.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: New York -142 | Indiana +116
• Total: O/U 180.5 (-110/-110)

Portland Fire vs. Minnesota Lynx

• Spread: Portland +13.5 (-114) | Minnesota -13.5 (-106)
• Moneyline: Portland +570 | Minnesota -900
• Total: O/U 173.5 (-112/-108)

Washington Mystics vs. Golden State Valkyries

• Spread: Washington +8.5 (-106) | Golden State -8.5 (-114)
• Moneyline: Washington +310 | Golden State -420
• Total: O/U 147.5 (-114/-106)

WNBA Best Bets Today (July 18)

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WNBA Best Bets: New York Liberty vs. Indiana Fever

In this game, we have two teams that appear to be headed on different trajectories. Around mid-June, the Liberty were 11-4 and shaping up to be the contenders they were widely perceived to be. But they have gone 2-7 since then, falling to 13-11. To be fair, four of those losses were by five points or less.

Had a few plays gone differently in each, the conversation about the Liberty would be different. So — what’s been the problem? On the offensive end, they’ve gone from averaging 88.4 points per game through June 14 to 86 points over the last nine games. However, the difference on the defensive end has been more significant. New York has gone from 81.4 points allowed per game (fourth best in the league) to 88 points (seventh best).

Injuries have been a factor. But the Liberty have had Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu available for most of the last nine games.

New York’s recent struggles will have Indiana fans looking forward to tonight’s game, especially after watching Caitlin Clark blow up for 45 points and 10 assists in last night’s 110-107 win over Seattle. But that was a close game against a six-win team? Is that something to really get excited about? Yes and no.

Yes, because if Caitlin Clark has finally found her shot again and starts chipping in 20+ points a night with Kelsey Mitchell continuing to do the same, this offense may be unstoppable. No, because teams may not have to worry about stopping the Fever, they just need to outscore them.

• My Pick: Indiana +116 (FanDuel)

We know New York is better than it has been playing. There is the win over Minnesota in the Commissioner’s Cup title game as proof of that. But there is no denying that it has been underperforming. The Liberty are missing role players like Satou Sabally and Leonie Fiebich, but a healthy Stewart and Ionescu should make up for their absences — but they hasn’t.

It is never good to be playing at a rest disadvantage. But doing so could actually be a good thing for the Fever. If Caitlin Clark and Kelsey Mitchell can pick up tonight where they left off last night, Indiana could overwhelm a struggling New York defense early and build a lead Stewart and Ionescu can’t overcome.

WNBA Best Bets: Portland Fire vs. Minnesota Lynx

Roughly a month ago (June 15), Minnesota crushed Portland in Minneapolis, 107-74. Since then, the Fire have gone 4-5 with wins over Seattle (2x), Atlanta, and Washington. The Lynx have gone 8-3 but with perplexing losses to Washington and Connecticut. However, they will take a four-game win streak into tonight’s contest.

So, is there any reason to think this game will go differently from the June 15th one? As expected, the public favored Minnesota enough in the June 15 game to move the spread two points, from -12.5 to -14.5. This time, the line opened at -11.5 but has since moved to -13.5.

However, Minnesota’s defense has been slipping lately. Over the last five games, the Lynx have allowed teams to score 88.4 points per game (ninth best in that stretch). Portland, on the other hand, has allowed 79.6 points per game (third best). But Minnesota scored 93 points per game and went 4-1 in that five-game stretch, while Portland scored 84 and went 3-2.

Napheesa Collier is not set to return to Minnesota yet. Portland will be without Megan Gustafson and Holly Winterburn; Karlie Samuelson is a game-time decision but is listed as doubtful.

• My Pick: Portland +13.5 (-114, FanDuel)

Kayla McBride and Olivia Miles have been playing incredible basketball of late. The duo has averaged 50+ points combined over the last five games. Both have been shooting 50% or better. They combined for only 26 points in the June 15 game vs. Portland. But both have become larger parts of the team’s game plan since then. McBride played 25 minutes in that game but has averaged 35+ over the last five. Miles had 23 minutes but has averaged just under 30 minutes over the last five. But Miles has also developed into a runaway leader for WNBA Rookie of the Year honors.

Minnesota will win, but there is no value in the moneyline. As good as Miles and McBride have been playing, Portland has been playing solid enough defense to make me doubt the Lynx can cover a 13.5-point spread.

WNBA Best Bets: Washington Mystics vs. Golden State Valkyries

After getting humiliated by Golden State at home on July 6, 62-49, Washington bounced back well, recording wins over the Seattle Storm (84-79) and the Toronto Tempo (79-62). But then they got embarrassed again, this time by the Portland Fire, 75-56.

Portland’s defense held the Mystics to 29.7% from the floor and just 10% from 3-point range (2-21). Shakira Austin was the only player to score in double digits with 19 points. Kiki Iriafen was held to two, Sonia Citron had eight, and Michaela Onyenwere had five. Washington’s offense is one of the worst in the league, but that trio averages a combined 42.3 points per game.

If the Mystics had not been dominated by Portland, it would be easier to make a case that they would play a better game against Golden State this time. The Valkyries have continued to play solid defense since that July 6 game, holding Toronto to 75 points, Connecticut to 64, and Indiana to 75. Golden State doesn’t have an explosive offense, but it still won by eight, 15, and 13 points.

The Valkyries have had a different player lead the team in scoring in their last four games, twice by bench players (Janelle Salaün and Kaitlyn Chen). Gabby Williams leads the team in scoring with 15 points per game.

• My Pick: Under 147.5 (-106)

Golden State should easily win this game, but there is no value in the moneyline. While I think it’ll cover the spread (Golden State has gone 7-1 ATS during its win streak), I’m not confident. The Valkyries offense is not going to explode in bunches or run up the score. If Washington happens to have a good defensive day (second-best rating in the league at 93.7 over the last five games), Golden State does not cover, and we might even have upset potential.

But there is no reason to even consider betting on Washington to win. However, since both have been playing great defense lately, the under is the way to go — even with a total this low.