WNBA Best Bets (July 14): Washington Mystics vs. Toronto Tempo Odds & Picks

It's another two-game card for us, with an important game carrying playoff implications set for tonight. The Portland Fire and Connecticut Sun played earlier today, and now all eyes are on two of the most surprising teams during the first half of the season, as the eighth-place Washington Mystics visit the 11th-place Toronto Tempo in a 7 p.m. Eastern tip on NBA TV.

(Photo by Geoff Stellfox/Getty Images)

Despite the Mystics' distance from Toronto, only two games separate a bottlenecked area of the standings, where the ninth-, 10th-, and 11th-place teams are all capable of making it to the postseason with a strong second half of the campaign.

Washington, meanwhile, has enjoyed a surge during the second quarter of the campaign, winning six of nine since a 5-7 start to the season. During their 6-3 run, the Mystics own road wins over the New York Liberty and Minnesota Lynx. Despite their recent win streak, the Mystics have cooled off at the books, failing to cover four of their last five.

The Tempo snapped a four-game skid with a shocking 93-91 win over the Liberty, and have three home games left before All-Star Weekend. Sitting three games under .500, it's conceivable Toronto could even its record at 13-13 before the second half. Toronto is also mired in a 1-4 ATS skid.

If you're searching for further sports and WNBA betting promotions, Ballislife Bets has put together a list of the best sports betting offers here.

Washington Mystics vs. Toronto Tempo Betting Odds (FanDuel)

• Spread: Washington -2.5 (-104) | Toronto +2.5 (-118)
• Moneyline: Washington (-134) | Toronto (+110)
• Total: O/U 172.5 (-110/-110)

Washington showed promise from the outset, winning two of its first three to start the season, including a 104-102 overtime victory against the Fever in Indianapolis. The problem was a rugged schedule that saw the Mystics play five of their first six on the road, while weary legs contributed to a scoring defense that allowed 86.7 points per game. Not all that bad, but not great. During their 6-3 win streak, though, the Mystics rank second in scoring defense, surrendering 81.0 PPG since June 17.

Don't buy into Toronto's win over the Liberty. It's impressive, but there's also something to be said about the Liberty's inconsistencies. Plus, the Tempo are 3-6 following a win this season, including 0-3 after their last three victories. Head coach Sandy Brondello deserves credit for keeping the Tempo relevant in the playoff conversation, even with a losing record, but they're facing a much better and much healthier team. The Tempo are still without guards Brittney Sykes (foot) and Kiki Rice (ankle), while Temi Fagbenle (concussion) is questionable.

Let's take a look at the odds and my best bets for Monday (odds via FanDuel):

WNBA Best Bets: Washington Mystics vs. Toronto Tempo (July 14)

My Prediction: Mystics -2.5 (-104)

The Mystics are on the road for the first time since June 26, and should have fresh legs after a quick flight to Toronto from D.C. Their defense just held the Seattle Storm to 79 points on 42.9% shooting, including 26.3% from 3-point range. They're facing a Tempo team whose offense is centered around Marina Mabrey, and she can't shoulder the burden by herself.

• In the first two meetings of these franchises, the Mystics have won very close games, by three in both teams' season opener, and by one on June 12. Considering Washington's stingy defense has held its last three opponents and six of its last seven below 80 points, this is a great spot to flex its defensive muscles while running away with the cover thanks to a much more balanced offense.

Kalshi: Pros and Cons

• CFTC-regulated
• Transparent pricing
• Low fees, no house edge
• Diverse event markets available

• Possible loss from volatility or market uncertainty

Visit Kalshi

WNBA Over/Under Bet for July 14

My Prediction: Under -172.5 (-110)

The Tempo have gone over in their last two games, but they've also played two high-scoring teams that force an up-tempo pace. Toronto doesn't mind scoring, either, but before those games, they stayed under in three straight, and that's how this game will trend.

• Toronto is going to have to match Washington's defensive instincts if it wants to stay in this game, and that should make for a low-scoring game. Besides, the Mystics, who have stayed under in five of their last seven games, are scoring the league's third-fewest points per game (81.2). This game will struggle to touch 165, let alone get to 170 points.

 WNBA Prop Bet for July 14

My Prediction: Sonia Citron OVER 17.5 points (-122)

Citron ranks second to only Paige Bueckers, among all second-year players, with 18.7 points per game. And where she's been extremely effective is getting to the line and converting. She leads all WNBA sophomores with 6.9 free-throw attempts and 6.2 made free throws. Toss in the entire WNBA, and her numbers come in third in both categories.

• The relevance there? Toronto ranks 12th in the WNBA in committing the league's fourth-highest 22.5 fouls per game. Citron is in after scoring 19 points against Seattle and 32 against Portland. She's scored 18 or more in nine of her 18 games, and she's averaging 21.5 points per game in two meetings with Toronto.

W.G. Ramirez is a veteran sports writer from Las Vegas and a Senior Staff Analyst at Ballislife Bets. Follow him on X at @WillieGRamirez.