WNBA Best Bets: Wings vs. Storm, Mercury vs. Lynx Odds & Game Picks (June 1)

The WNBA season rolls on today with a pair of games on the schedule: the Seattle Storm vs. the Dallas Wings and the Minnesota Lynx vs. the Phoenix Mercury. Both matchups are intriguing and should be a lot of fun to watch. But what are the WNBA Best Bets for the day?

That’s a good question. Let’s take a look at the odds for each game and see what we can figure out.

Photo via Dallas Wings

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WNBA Best Bets (June 1): Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm

• Spread: Seattle +12.5 (-112) | Dallas -12.5 (-108)
• Moneyline: Seattle +470 | Dallas -650
• Total: O/U 166.5 (-110/-110)

Odds via DraftKings

After a slow start to the season that saw them go 1-2 out of the gate, the Dallas Wings have rattled off four wins in their last five games. Yes, two of them were over struggling teams (Washington and Chicago). But after losing to Atlanta for the second time this season, they recorded a solid win over the New York Liberty (91-76) and beat the Las Vegas Aces last Thursday (95-87).

So far, it is not surprising at all how they are winning. Paige Bueckers appears to have picked up where she left off last season and has the Dallas offense clicking. While the unit ranks No. 5 in scoring with 88.9 points per game, the Wings' offense is currently the highest rated in the league at 112.7.

Much like last year, scoring points is not the issue. It’s stopping other teams from scoring that has become the problem. Dallas has one of the lowest-rated defenses in the league at 107.3 (only Connecticut, Toronto, and Los Angeles are lower). But it ranks No. 6 in scoring with 84.8 points per game. The defensive shortcomings of the Wings may not be an issue tonight against the offensively challenged Seattle Storm, however. Seattle is one of two teams averaging under 80 points per game (78.7 ppg); only Connecticut is scoring fewer at 75.6 ppg.

But as poor as they are on the offensive end, the Storm are not bad on defense. They’ve been holding opponents to 82.6 points per game, the fourth-best mark in the league. Of course, injuries have had an impact on Seattle. Last year’s No. 2 pick in the draft Dominique Malonga has been out since getting a concussion against Toronto in the third game of the season.

Ezi Magbegor is also out for Seattle tonight, as are Taylor Thierry and Taina Mair.

My Monday WNBA Pick: Dallas -12.5 (-108, DraftKings)

Large spreads make me nervous, but it’s the best option for this game. There is no value in betting the Wings moneyline, and I don’t trust these teams to combine for more than 166.5 points. Seattle’s defense will probably slow Dallas down, and I don’t trust the Storm offense to do its part.

That leaves the spread. The Dallas offense is certainly capable of putting up points against this Seattle team. But I’m a little nervous the Storm defense might keep the game from getting out of hand. However, Seattle does not have a go-to scoring threat and has been beaten on the road by 13, 11, and 21 points.

As long as Dallas’ shooters don’t go cold, the Wings will cover this spread.

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WNBA Best Bets (June 1): Phoenix Mercury vs. Minnesota Lynx

• Spread: Minnesota -2.5 (-110) | Phoenix +2.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Minnesota -148 | Phoenix +124
• Total: O/U 166.5 (-108/-112)

Odds via DraftKings

I have to admit that I am a little surprised the Minnesota Lynx have the best record in the WNBA right now (6-2). With the personnel losses in free agency and with Napheesa Collier out to start the season with an injury, my expectations were low.

But here they are, eight games in, with the best defense in the league (79.1 points per game allowed and a 96.8 defensive rating. The offense could still use some work. It’s averaging 88.4 points per game, good for sixth-best in the league. Its 107.1 offensive rating ranks eighth.

That’s a big step back from last year’s team that had the highest-rated offense in the league at 109.5 (86.1 points per game; also, the league’s best). Collier is still listed as out, as is Dorka Juhász.

But their offensive issues may not matter too much today against a struggling Phoenix team (2-7). The Mercury have been giving up 85.3 points per game (8th best in the league) while scoring just 83.7 points per game.

Hopes were high for Phoenix coming into the season. It looked like it was destined for a special season after destroying Las Vegas in the season opener, 99-66. But since then, the Mercury have scored 90+ points in only one other game (their other win) and averaged 81.8 points per game (No. 13 in the league).

My Pick: Minnesota -2.5 (-110, DraftKings)

I am not sure why the spread is as low as it is. I get that Phoenix is the home team, and that’s worth a few points. But Minnesota has the best record in the league and is undefeated on the road. The Mercury made a game of it back on May 12 in the second game of the season (lost 88-84 at home). That was before the Lynx had figured out how to proceed without Napheesa Collier in the lineup.

Phoenix has the talent to be a playoff-caliber team, but it has to figure out the best way score for it to move forward. Until it does, it is going to be a rough season, much like tonight’s game. Take Minnesota to cover.