It's Wednesday, September 11, and there are three games on the WNBA Slate. In a highly awaited matchup, the Las Vegas Aces (22-13, 11-6 away) will matchup with the blazing-hot Indiana Fever (19-17, 11-6 home).
Fresh off a 75-71 against the New York Liberty, the Aces were without their MVP star A'ja Wilson. With Wilson expected back in the lineup, the Aces are tabbed as -3.5 point favorites. 8-2 in their last ten matchups, can Indiana avoid a series sweep?
(Photo by Catalina Fragoso/NBAE via Getty Images)
In a West Coast clash, the Los Angeles Sparks (7-29, 5-13 h0me) will host the Seattle Storm (21-14, 8-9 away), which is a back-to-back matchup for LA. If you're betting on the WNBA, the Storm are large point spread favorites (-12.5) after coming off a colossal 90-66 defeat over the Mercury.
For the last matchup, the Washington Mystics (11-24, 7-11 away) and the Chicago Sky (13-22, 6-12) will continue to fight for the 8th and final WNBA playoff seed.
Currently two games behind Chicago for the final spot, the Mystics will rally against the Sky, who've won two straight.
5-5 in their last 10 matchups, the Mystics are 7-3 against the spread. +1.5 point underdogs, they will have a tough task tonight against a Sky team who's covered against the Wings and Sparks.
WNBA Odds Are Current As of September 11 at 9 A.M. ET
In this article, I'm providing my best bets, predictions, and analysis for the WNBA matchups this evenings. A combination of money line and prop bets, I've gathered all of the odds and prop lines from legal sportsbooks. For these picks, I've placed all of my bets within FanDuel Sportsbook.
If you're in search of the top WNBA bets for September, 11, you've come to the right place. Here with Ballislife, I have an WNBA record of 142-117 on the year.
With consistency and accuracy, I strive to provide the post profitable WNBA bets with great value. Let's dive into the slate and look at my favorite bets for today.
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WNBA Best Bets For Wednesday, September 11
WNBA Player Prop Bet #1: Chelsea Gray
Chelsea Gray Season Stats
PPG: 7.8 | FG: 39 % | FT: 81.6 % | 3PT %: 32.8 | REB: 3.0 | AST: 5.0 | STL: 1.2 | BLK: 0.7
- Over 4.5 Assists (-152 FanDuel)
One of my favorite props of the season, I'm once again betting on Aces guard
Chelsea Gray
to dish out over 4.5 assists tonight against the Fever. Able to grab the line early at 4.5, this is a no brainer, especially for the caliber of point guard that she is.
Well under Gray's season average of five assists, I love the prop. The value is juiced, however, if you are able to parlay it with another prop, you should see value. That's if the prop hits the over tonight.
I've wagered units on this assists prop for four straight games and there's no reason why I'm going to fade it. The primary point guard for the Aces, Gray's established herself as more of a facilitator than scorer post injury.
Atrocious on the offensive end in Sunday's 75-71 loss against the Liberty, Gray couldn't buy a shot. Finishing just 1-7 (14.3 %) from the field, and 1-4 (25 %) from downtown, I'm confident in the assist prop.
- Against the Liberty, It was Gray's subtle movements that created opportunities for her teammates.
- Even without A'ja Wilson in the lineup, it is her ability and unselfishness to make that extra pass in the corner.
- It's Gray's innate ability to recognize the double team and kick out. The no look dimes in transition, and the flashy passes.
It's Gray facilitating to the best players in the world beside her. Her ability to create timely recognizing the screens is exceptional. And this is why I'm taking Gray over 4.5 assists tonight.
This Player Prop Line Is Set Too Low
Hitting the over in four straight games against the Mercury, Sky, Sun, and Liberty, the aces guard is dishing out an average of 6.8 dimes over that period. With back-to-back six assists nights, I strongly believe this line is too low.
Do I like the prop at 5.5 assists, sure. However that wasn't an option at the time.
If you're making bets on the WNBA, let's breakdown the matchup between the Fever and the Aces.
- Aside from seven assists in her lone game against Indiana this year, Gray's tallied over this prop line in six consecutive games prior, dating back to 2022.
- Although Indiana is a widely different squad, who allow over 20 assists per game.
Tonight, Gray get's another shot, this time with Wilson back in the lineup. Never missing below the prop line in Indiana, I've mentioned before, Gray is much more efficient on the road.
- With a +.3 difference, she's averaging 5.1 dimes on the road, specifically a season high 6.8 through four games in September.
- Dishing out an average of 5.2 assists post WNBA All-Stat break, there's no reason to believe the under would hit tonight.
- Although minutes have been inconsistent through September, it's a positive sign Gray's coming off 30 minutes vs. New York.
Final WNBA Player Prop Betting Prediction: Chelsea Gray O 4.5 Assists (-152 FanDuel)
Overall, these are two teams that play at an extremely high pace. In both matchups against the Aces this year, two have been high scoring, with the Aces averaging 93.5 points and 24 assists.
- Even without Gray back in May, it was Kelsey Plum, and Jackie Young, who respectively had a combined 13 assists.
In the one game against Indiana, Chelseay Gray dished out only four assists, in large part of low minutes (only 20 per game). With Plum leading the way with 10 assists, it's clear the Fever haven't stopped the Aces passing lanes. Although Jackie Young's been struggling as of late, it's helpful Plum's been on a tear.
Over the last 5 games, Plum's putting up 21.5 points on 38.5 three-point percentage. Over the last two games, she's averaged 26 points alone.
Tonight, Gray and the Aces get a Fever team who allowed Jordin Canada and Rhyne Howard to combine for 10 dimes. This past week, Sparks guard Odyssey Sims tallied six assists, while Arike Ogunbowale and Jacy Sheldon combined for seven.
WNBA Player Prop Bet #2: Skylar Diggins-Smith
Skylar Diggins-Smith Season Stats
PPG: 7.8 | FG: 39 % | FT: 81.6 % | 3PT %: 32.8 | REB: 3.0 | AST: 5.0 | STL: 1.2 | BLK: 0.7
- Over 15.5 Points (-125 FanDuel)
Another player I've continuously placed coin on is
Skylar Diggins-Smith, guard for the Seattle Storm. One of the hottest players in the WNBA, I've placed a unit on Diggins-Smith to score over 15.5 points tonight against the Los Angeles Sparks.
- Averaging 14.5 points on the season, Diggins Smith's having a tremendous season with her new team.
- Despite some inconsistencies over the first half, she's increased her scoring average to 18 points post all-star game.
With increasing percentages from the floor, three-point and free-throw line, I love this matchup for Diggins-Smith today.
Not exactly the strongest three-point shooter since 2022, Smith has earned her right to score in various ways. A mid range, or tough bucket at the basket, she's gained the full confidence of Head Coach Noelle Quinn.
This WNBA Prop Hit The Over In Four Straight Games
When I say hot, Diggins-Smith has come up with some monumental scoring performances, erupting for 26 points and 21 against the Liberty, 16 and 18 against the Sun.
On top of that, she's scoring and hitting over the point prop against two of the most elite defenses in the WNBA. After exploding for a rare three-pointers against the Liberty, can she perform at that level again tonight?
For tonight's matchup against the Sparks, her point prop total is set slightly higher in the past.
- Even at 14.5 against New York and a 13.5 points prop total against Connecticut, she soared over, only hitting the under in one game against the Mystics.
- With no problem scoring over 15.5 points in four straight road games she'll get the Sparks, who are coming off zero rest.
My only concern is Noelle Quinn may pull her from the lineup if it's a blowout. However, Seattle has the clear advantage here, coming off four days rest.
Final WNBA Player Prop Betting Prediction: Skylar Diggins-Smith O 15.5 Points (-125 FanDuel)
If you're placing bets on the WNBA,
Skylar Diggins-Smith
gets a solid matchup with the Sparks, who own the worst record in the WNBA. Coming off back-to-backs, the Sparks lack true super star identity amid injuries and development of the rookies.
- Allowing the third most points per game (86.4), Los Angeles recently allowed Connecticut to pile up 86 points.
- Overall, the Sun, Sky, Fever, Dream, Liberty and Wings scored an average of 90 points on them over the last seven games.
- Recently guard Dijonai Carrington (19), Caitlin Clark (24), Kelsey Mitchell (18), Rhyne Howard (19), Sabrina Ionescu (18), and Arike Ogunbowale (33) tallied for well over 15.5 points.
With limited depth and injuries, Sparks head coach Curt Miller is forced to start a bigger lineup. Unable to keep up with smaller guards such as Diggins-Smith will be a problem, especially with her craft methods of scoring.
- With increasing shot volume and consistency since mid August, she's averaging 14 field goal attempts and 16.8 points over the last four matchups.
The only reason Diggins-Smith was held at 12 points against Phoenix was their complete dominance, causing Noelle Quinn to limit her to 26 minutes. Playing on average 33 minutes since August 16, there's plenty of opportunities to get going early in the stretch.
If it turns into a blowout, look for Diggins-Smith to score early. After all, the Sparks do struggle defending guards.
WNBA Money Line Bet: Washington Mystics
- Washington Mystics 1H Winner (-105 FanDuel)
For my last WNBA bet, I've placed on unit on the
Washington Mystics
to cover the first half money line spread against the Chicago Sky tonight. A few games back from the Sky for the final playoff seed, every quarter and game counts.
Finally head coach Eric Thibault has some what of a healthier squad, and is known for making late playoff pushes.
- Similar to last season, the Mystics snuck in as the seventh seed at 19-21.
- It's truly been a game changer in the backcourt, especially with Ariel Atkins and Brittney Sykes healthy.
Sure, the Mystics are coming off a 78-71 loss against the Lynx, however, that's against a top team in the league. Without Shakira Austin in the lineup, this team continues to prevail and hang around teams that would normally crush them.
- 5-5 in their last ten games, this Mystics team is 4-2 in their last games, with victories against the Mercury, Wings, Sun, and Storm.
- While thats nothing to sniff at, this is a Mystics team that was once in conversation for the first pick in the 2025 WNBA Draft.
- Although they have a subpar 11-24 record, they are still very much in that conversation. However, this is a team that's improved quite a bit since their 0-12 start.
Overall, they face a Sky team who has an excellent leader in Teresa Weatherspoon, and some skilled players next to the rookies.With a 13-22 record, the loss of Angel Reese is a huge blow for Chicago.
However, the dominance of Chennedy Cater and evolution of Kamilla Cardoso is sure fun to watch. Fresh off two consecutive wins against the Wings and Sparks, they will have their hands full tonight.
Final WNBA Best Betting Prediction: Washington Mystics 1H Money Line vs. Sky (-105 FanDuel)
Having opened up as +4 spread underdogs, the Mystics are -1 point favorites, which go along with my reasoning why I believe they will cover the first half spread.
I know we aren't betting on the spread.
- However, for a team that's tallied only 11 wins, they fight hard and stick in games.
- With an incredible 23-11-1 record against the spread, I can't see this game getting out of hand by halftime.
Along with Angel Reese, Chicago's injuries continue to pile up. This time, Diamond DeShields is ruled out for tonight's game. With a 2-0 series lead over the Sky, this is their final regular season matchup of the year.
Not going down without a fight, Thibault and the Mystics will fight until the very end. Although I didn't touch the money line, I would expect Washington to take tonight straight up.
- I especially love the first half winner, since the Mystics are 3-0 in that department.
- Against the Sky this season, Washington holds a +30 point halftime differential over their three meetings.
- In fact, the Mystics owned the largest 14 point deficit dating back to their first meeting.
With that said, I'm not fading a team who's dominated a Sky team over the first half, and will now be without their best front court player.
Overall, both teams have struggled offensively to put points on the board post WNBA All-Star break. However, if you're betting on this matchup, the Mystics hold the third best three-point percentage (36.6 %) since the break.
With both teams trending in the opposite directions, Washington has a record of 5-5, while the Sky is 3-8 post Olympic Break. Overall, I love the Mystics roster right now compared to the Sky, especially with Karlie Samuelson back from injury.
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