WNBA Best Bets Today: 3 of The Best WNBA Picks Tonight September 19

It's the last day of the 2024 WNBA season, and we have a huge slate to bet on. With six games on the schedule, multiple teams are fighting for the 8th and final playoff spot.

Settled in the 8th seed, the Atlanta Dream have a one-game lead over the Washington Mystics and Chicago Sky, who are right outside of playoff contention.

If you're betting on the WNBA today, several starting lineup adjustments have occurred among various teams. While it's expected to be a wild day of betting, get ready for the ride. With the final day of the regular season, I expect some serious upsets tonight.

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Fresh off a gut-wrenching 78-74 last-second loss against the Minnesota Lynx, the Connecticut Sun (27-12, 13-6 home) will host the Chicago Sky (13-26, 7-12 away) in their last regular season home game.

Appointed -13.5  spread favorites, the Sun are comfortably locked in the 3rd seed, just one game ahead of the Las Vegas Aces.

One game back from the final playoff spot, can the Sky pull off the upset at +600 money line odds?

Already claimed the number one seed, the New York Liberty (32-7, 16-3 home) will host the Atlanta Dream (14-25, 6-13 away) at home tonight. -1.5 point spread favorites, the Liberty will finish the season, with the best record in the WNBA.

Although it's unclear if head coach Sandy Brondello will change up the starting lineup, this game doesn't mean much for the Liberty. Playing for pride, they face a Dream team, who hope to capture and retain the final playoff spot. If so, this is a potential first round WNBA playoffs matchup.

Today Concludes The End Of The Regular WNBA Season

One game back of Atlanta for a playoff spot, the Washington Mystics (13-26, 4-15) will host the Indiana Fever (20-19, 8-11 home) at home today.

• +2.5 point favorites on the road, the Fever have a one game lead over the Mercury for the 6th seed.

Can Washington sneak into the playoffs and tie the series 2-2 with the Fever?

Heading into the later evening games, the Minnesota Lynx (30-9, 16-3 home) will face the Los Angeles Sparks (7-32, 2-17 away) at home.

1. With Napheesa Collier and Kayla McBride out of the lineup, the Lynx are still -3.5 favorites.
2. Locked in as the number two seed, this game isn't all that important for Minnesota.
3. Unfortunately for the Sparks, they hold the worst record in the WNBA, and were eliminated from playoff contention.

Giving all five starters a well deserved rest, head coach Becky Hammon and the Las Vegas Aces (26-13, 12-7 home) will play the Dallas Wings (9-30, 2-17 away tonight). Underdogs (+3.5) for only the second time this season, the Aces are likely locked in at the 4th seed.

Out of playoff contention, the Wings hold the second worst record in the WNBA.

In what could be Diana Taurasi's final regular season home game, the Phoenix Mercury (19-20, 10-9 home) will matchup against the Seattle Storm (24-15, 10-9 away) at home.

Slight favorites, the Mercury and and Storm both have key players that will sit out this one.  Both locked into the playoffs, this still should be a fun and exciting game to bet on.

WNBA Odds Are Current As Of September 19 at 7 A.M. ET

If you love the WNBA, or just looking to place some bets, welcome! With a 158-130 betting record on the WNBA this season, I am up over four units. Although the starting lineups are yet to be determined, I'm anticipating minute restrictions for some players. With the last games of the season, betting can be especially difficult.

However, I will provide my best analysis, best bets, and player prop lines for tonight.

If you watch and bet on the WNBA, most games will air on NBA TV/WNBA League Pass. With tip-off set for 7 p.m. ET, the Fever and Mystics matchup will air on Amazon Prime Video.

Let's take a look at the WNBA slate, and dive into some of the most intriguing bests of the day.

Are you in search of further sports betting promotions? We have compiled a list of the best sports betting offers here. 

WNBA Best Bets For Thursday, September 19

WNBA Best Spread Bet: Chicago Sky Vs Connecticut Sun

• Sun -13.5 (-108 FanDuel)
• Under 154 points (-112 FanDuel)

While some coaches have preemptively pulled their starters, there's been no official word if Sun head coach Stephanie White intends to start her usual five. Either way, locked in as the current three seed, there's a chance Connecticut can fall to the 4th seed.

• While I'm anticipating the Sun want to avoid this, I'm taking Connecticut to cover the -13.5 point spread against the Chicago Sky tonight.

It's hard to believe that the Sky are still one game out making the playoffs through all of the injuries and adversities on the season. Without Angel Reese, rookie Kamilla Cardoso is doubtful, and scoring machine Chennedy Carter is listed as questionable.

Set to square up for the fourth and last time of the WNBA season, the Sun have a 3-0 lead over the Sky.  Although Chicago's been efficient in covering.

• 2-1 against the spread, the Sky covered the +5 and +11 point spread this season.

Although these teams haven't matched up in nearly a month, times have changed. With several injuries, head coach Teresa Weatherspoon has limited depth on the roster. And now, they have to face the Sun on the road, a team that's a WNBA championship contender. That's a tough task.

Why the Connecticut Sun Can Cover The Spread

Sure, 13.5 is a heavy spread, and normally I would pick the Sky to cover if healthy. However, with Lindsay Allen, Rachel Banham, Isabelle Harrison, Michaela Onyenwere, and Brianna Turnever listed as starters, Chicago's dropped four straight.

• With a -69 point differential over their four game skid, that's over a -17 point differential per game.

Without Carter, the Sky lose the engine to their offense. In the absence of Reese and Cardoso, the Sky lack rebounding capabilities. We saw it in the previous matchup with the Dream.

I'm not saying the Sky lack talented players. They don't have that superstar that can push them forward, and the stats speak for themselves.

1. Over their four game skid, they took both a 83-66 loss to the Lynx, and 89-58 defeat against the Mystics.
2. Unfortunately, I don't expect that to get any better tonight.
3. Covering the spread in just three of the last 10 games, the Sky failed to cover four straight, including large 12.5 and 11 point spreads against Atlanta and Minnesota.

Struggling to put up points on the offensive end, the Sky are only averaging 70 points over their losing skid. They now face a top defensive team in the Sun.

Losers of two straight games, the Sun should do everything in their power to retain the number three seed over the Aces. However, with the playoffs approaching, coach White may opt for a different lineup and player minute restrictions. If so, I still believe the Sun have the competitive advantage over the Sun.

Final WNBA Betting Prediction: Connecticut Sun -13.5 (-108 FanDuel)

Overall, I do expect this line to increase as the day goes on. That's if the starting lineups don't change. Just 1-4 ATS over the last five matchups, I don't have the Sky nearly touching this spread. 9-19 ATS as underdogs, the Sky will face the Sun who have the clear edge here.

Winners of three straight against the Sky, the Sun pulled out a 82-80 victory against Chicago a month ago. However, we can't forget the atrocious shooting woes, with Connecticut hitting just 37 percent of their shots.

1. I certainly don't expect the DeWanna Bonner to finish 3-16 from the field, or DiJonai Carrington to shoot 2-12.
2. Not the strongest finish on the season, these two teams are not comparable.
3. With Tiffany Mitchell sidelined, the bench is growing small for Connecticut. I do anticipate the bench to get somewhat steady minutes here.

9-20 against the spread as underdogs, I don't see the Sky covering tonight. A team that once looked promised to make the playoffs has completely imploded during the second half of the season.

Expect the Sun to fight hard, especially since the Aces would win the fourth place tie breaker. Covering the spread in six of the last 10 matchups against the Sky, I'm laying the points with Connecticut tonight.

WNBA Best Totals Bet: Under 154 Points

Previously hitting the under for the Sun vs. Lynx matchup, I'm once again betting on the under for tonight's game. With both teams fighting for playoff seeding, I do expect this to be relatively low scoring.

In fact, it's the best defensive team in the WNBA vs. one of the worst producing offenses. At 154 points, I believe that number is slightly high. With key injuries piling up for Chicago, I can't even vision this team putting up 70 points against Connecticut.

• Overall, both teams have a combined 35-42-1 over/under record.

In fact, the over hit just 14 times for Connecticut as spread favorites. Taking a beating to Minnesota and Las Vegas, the Sun have lacked offense the last two matchups.

• Averaging 73.5 points in the last two games, they've hit the over in just four of the last 10 matchups.

Leading the WNBA in opponent points per game (74.1), I don't expect the Sky to put up a ton of points tonight. Ironically, former Sun guard Rachel Banham could possible lead the team in scoring tonight. Racking up 22 points against the Atlanta Dream, only two players scored in double figures, which were Isabelle Harrison and Lindsay Allen.

Final WNBA Betting Prediction: Chicago Sky vs Connecticut Sun under 154 points (-112 FanDuel)

If you look at the stats, all three of the Sun and Sky's matchups this season have been competitive and close. With the over hitting in all three matchups, again, we have to look at the depth.

1. If Carter is unable to suit up, that's a player that's averaged 17.5 average points against Connecticut this year.
2. Without Reese, Diamond DeShields, Carter, and Cardoso, that accounts for 57 % of their offense scored against the Sun this year.
3. Limited to 79 points per game, that's going to be hard to replace.

Along with a lack in scoring, the Sky lack three-point shooting, or any real explosive offense outside of Carter. Shooting just over 42 percent from the field, this is a team that barely shoots over 30 percent from deep. Although Connecticut's offense can be inconsistent at times, it's their defense that will keep the Sky in check.

Overall, the over has hit just eight times at Mohegan Sun Arena. If you're betting on the WNBA, the under is a safe bet today.

WNBA Totals Bet: Indiana Fever Vs Washington Mystics

• Over 166 points (-108)

Tonight, the Mystics will be fighting for their life in the last regular season game against the Indiana Fever. While the Fever are +2.5 spread underdogs, I am inclined to take that for one unit. However, I love the over for tonight, and I've placed one unit on that.

If you're planning to make bets on the WNBA, the Fever the Mystics are not the most efficient teams on the defensive end. With the Fever allowing the second most points per game (87.5) and Washington (82.1), this game should soar well over 166 points tonight.

That's if both sides choose to player their regular starting players. If not, both sides have decent role players.

1. With Indiana leading the series 2-1, the over has hit on all three games.
2. With the lowest total set at 161 points in June, it's important to note neither team has scored before 80 points.
3. Totaling an average of 170 points over their three meetings, I expect a competitive, yet high scoring game tonight.

Given the Mystics season is on the line, I'm expecting head coach Eric Thibault to throw everything he can at the Fever tonight. What's encouraging is the Mystics 89-84 victory over Indiana, which tallied 173 points back in July. Without Karlie Samuelson and Brittney Sykes, Washington managed to pull out a win, along with hitting the over on points.

Final WNBA Betting Prediction: Indiana Fever vs Washington Mystics over 166 points (-108 FanDuel)

25-14 against totals this WNBA season, the Fever have been quite dominant offensively against the Mystics. Averaging 86.7 points over their three meetings, it's been a mix of offensive production.

• In fact, Aaliyah Boston, Caitlin Clark, Kelsey Mitchell, and NaLyssa Smith have combined for an average of 66.8 points against the Mystics thus far.

For the Mystics, they have a healthy backcourt, although will be missing Aaliyah Edwards. Thin at the frontcourt, we saw how the Liberty performed against them.

• Tonight, I expect the Fever to take advantage in the post.

Regarding the Fever, Caitlin Clark and company and locked in the 6th seed. However, being a prime time game, I can't see the entire Fever roster sitting this one out.

Sure, the Mystics are the 9th worst team in terms of offense in the WNBA (79 points). However, given their history against the Fever, expect them to put up points tonight.

Given these two teams rank top six in terms of pace, look for plenty of scoring opportunities. The Fever who play at an extremely fast pace, give up the 10th most field goal attempts per game (70.2). With both teams allowing over 23 three-pointers per game, expect a shootout.