WNBA Best Bets For Today: Liberty vs Lynx Picks & Predictions (August 16)

It's Saturday, and WNBA Rivals Week continues!

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Today's there's another finals rematch featuring the reigning champion New York Liberty (21-12, 8-8 away) and the Minnesota Lynx (27-5, 16-1).

Up 2-0 in the regular season series, the Lynx will play the Liberty for the second time in six days. Now they get another matchup at home, this time the sportsbooks are predicting a much closer matchup. Slim 1.5-point spread and -130 moneyline favorites, the Lynx will once again be without MVP front-runner and former Defensive Player of the Year, Napheesa Collier.

For the Liberty, their injury woes continue, and the team will continue to miss Breanna Stewart, Isabelle Harrison, and Nyara Sabally due to injuries. Having faced an 83-77 loss against A'ja Wilson and the Las Vegas Aces, the Liberty have lost the No.2 seed temporarily to the Atlanta Dream.

Winners of five consecutive games, the Lynx continue to roll despite the absence of Collier. Having already clinched a playoff birth, the acquisition of DiJonai Carrington has only bolstered the roster.

The question remains, can the Liberty pick up a win on the road? With a thin frontcourt, can Jonquel Jones and Emma Meesseman stay out of foul trouble and hold it down in the paint? With less than a month left of the season, every matchup counts.

Having lost to the Liberty in the 2024 WNBA Finals, the two will square off once again. Not only does today's matchup feature the top two teams last year, both the Liberty and Lynx headline the top two teams to win the WNBA Championship among sportsbooks.

WNBA: Liberty vs Lynx BetMGM Betting Odds And Schedule For Saturday, August 16

If you're looking to bet on the Liberty vs Lynx matchup, welcome!

I have a question 37-31 WNBA betting record in August, and we swept and went 3-0 in my last article!

Today's showdown will tip-off at 2 p.m. ET, and will air on CBS. Hosted at Target Center, we are in for an exciting day ahead!

If you're here for my betting picks, I placed all bets separately within FanDuel and DraftKings Sportsbook. Keeping my bank roll management at the forefront, I did not parlay my picks.

Here are my top three best bets, player prop picks, and predictions for the August 16 matchup featuring the Liberty and Lynx!

Are you looking to bet on WNBA player props all season long? Here at Ballislife Bets, we've gathered a complete list of the best sports betting offers here. 

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WNBA Best Bets: New York Liberty vs Minnesota Lynx BetMGM Betting Odds For August 16

MONEYLINE

• NEW YORK LIBERTY: +110
• MINNESOTA LYNX: -110

SPREAD

• NEW YORK LIBERTY: +1.5 (-110)
• MINNESOTA LYNX: -1.5 (-110)

OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)

• OVER: 165.5 (-110)
• UNDER 165.5 (-110)

2025 Regular Season H2H Matchups: New York Liberty vs Minnesota Lynx

• August 10, 2025: Lynx 83, Liberty 71 (Minnesota +4, under 168)
• July 30, 2025: Lynx 100, Liberty 93 (Push -7, over 167)

New York Liberty vs Minnesota Lynx Injury Report

LIBERTY

1. Isabelle Harrison, Forward: OUT (Concussion)
2. Nyara Sabally, C: OUT (Knee)
3. Breanna Stewart, F: OUT (Knee)

LYNX

1. Napheesa Collier, Forward: DOUBTFUL (Ankle)

*Odds are courtesy of BetMGM*

WNBA Best Bets For Liberty vs Lynx (August 16)

• Minnesota Lynx -1.5
• DiJonai Carrington OVER 10.5 Points
• Kayla McBride OVER 18.5 Points + Assists

Spread Bet: New York Liberty vs Minnesota Lynx

Liberty ATS Record: 16-16-1
Lynx ATS Record: 15-18

• Lynx -1.5 (-110 DraftKings)

My first best bet for today, I placed one unit on the Minnesota Lynx to cover the 1.5-point spread against the New York Liberty.

No Napheesa Collier? No problem. The Lynx hold the WNBA's best record at 27-5, and there's no signs of them slowing down.

They get the Liberty for the second time in six days, and get a full four days off! While the Lynx get another matchup at home, they face a Liberty team who's endured a rather grueling schedule.

Coming off a 83-77 loss against A'ja Wilson and the Aces on Wednesday, New York will continue their three game road stretch. Plus, they are about to play their fourth game in six days!

The Lynx are slim 1.5-point spread favorites, so the books are expecting a close one. Are the Liberty capable of pulling of the win on the road? Sure. However, they are 0-2 against the Lynx on the season, and hold a -19 point differential.

The Lynx Are The Betting Favorite To Win The WNBA Championship

Now they head into Minnesota injury riddled, this time missing Breanna Stewart, Nyara Sabally, and Isabelle Harrison once again. The No. 1 ranked team in offensive (110) and defensive rating (95.5), it's a tall task for the Liberty to cover and even win this flat out.

Last Sunday, the Lynx beat the Liberty 83-71, and that was without Collier. Dominant in the paint, the Lynx shot an impeccable 47.6 percent from beyond the arc.

While Kayla McBride and Courtney Williams were the heavy hitters, newly acquired DiJonai Carrington and Natisha Hiedeman combined for 28 points off the bench.

Overall, the Lynx have chemistry, and adding Carrington has only boosted their defensive and offensive efficiency in transition. Jessica Shepard and Alanna Smith were pretty much a non factor offensively. Now they get a thin front court, where Jonquel Jones racked up nine personal fouls over the last two games.

Why The Lynx Can Cover The Spread vs The Liberty

We know the Lynx are the top dogs defensively. Alanna Smith is a optimal defensive player of the year candidate, and they allow the least amount of points in the WNBA (75.6 PPG). Not to mention, the Lynx allow the second lowest field goal percentage (41.9 %), and 3-point (23.2 % to opponents).

Hence, they held Sabrina Ioenscu to 10 points, on 4-15, and 0-6 3-point shooting last game.

The Liberty have dropped two of their last three against the Aces and Lynx, and covered the spread just once in seven games. Once notable for their defensive, the Liberty have been dreadful on the defensive end.

What separates these two teams is turnovers, health, and defense. Over the last 10 games, the Liberty rank No. 10 in defensive rating (106.4), and are allowing over 72 opponent FGA per game over the last 10 matchups. Over that span, the allow the seventh most points off turnovers (14.4)

 WNBA Liberty vs Lynx Best Bet Pick and Prediction: Lynx -1.5 (-110 DraftKings)

Given the Lynx thrive off defensive and transition buckets, they scored 22 points of New York's 12 turnovers last game. Emma Meesseman is settling in comfortably with her new team, however the Liberty just aren't fully clicking.

I'm fine with the points or moneyline for the Lynx. They are fresh off five straight wins, and have a 16-1 record at home.

• I'm laying the points with the Minnesota Lynx today. Although the matchup loses some juice without Collier or Stewart, I'm expecting a competitive matchup. With nine players available, I simply don't trust a short-handed Liberty team on the road.

Player Prop Bet #1: DiJonai Carrington

DiJonai Carrington 2025 WNBA Stats (With the Lynx)

GP: 3 | PPG: 13 .3 | FG: 62.5 % | FT: 55.6  % | 3PT : 62.5 % | REB: 4.0 | AST: 1.7 | STL: 2.0 |  BLK: 0.7

• OVER 10.5 Points (-130 FanDuel)

My second best bet for today, I placed one unit on Minnesota Lynx guard DiJonai Carrington to record over 10.5 points against the New York Liberty.

Carrington has fit like a glove in Cheryl Reeve's system, soaring over this player prop line all three games since traded from the Dallas Wings to Minnesota. Scoring 13 and 12 points against the Storm and Mystics, Carrington erupted for 15 points in 24 points against the Liberty.

6-10 from the field, and 2-3 from three, Carrington was essential in transition, and creating buckets off defense. In fact, she was found open on several 3-pointers.

Why Is DiJonai Carrington's Player Prop Line Set Low?

Although its been just three games, she's fit in seamlessly, and is averaging a good amount of minutes (23.7) for coach Reeve. An x-factor off the bench, Carrington's production should increase in the absence of Collier. Through three games with the Lynx, she's averaging a career-high 13.3 points, shooting 62.6 percent from the field AND beyond the arc.

Now she gets another high stakes matchup opportunity against a Liberty team who allows the the sixth most points to guards. Over the last three games, Chelsea Gray (13), Kelsey Plum (26), Courtney Williams (14), crushed this player prop line.

Plus, we've seen Paige Bueckers (20), Kayla McBride (24), and Kelsey Mitchelle (29) go on tears against New York this season.

 WNBA Liberty vs Lynx Best Bet Pick and Prediction: DiJonai Carrington OVER 10.5 Points (-130 FanDuel)

Do I think DiJonai will explode for 30 points? No. However, she's comfortable in her role, playing nearly 25 minutes per game with Minnesota.

• I'm taking DiJonai Carrington to record over 10.5 points today. I truly believe this player prop line is set too low, and the books are sleeping on Carrington. 

Player Prop Bet #2: Kayla McBride

Kayla McBride 2025 WNBA Stats

GP: 28 | PPG: 14.8 | FG: 42.8` % | FT: 92.3 % | 3PT : 40.2 % | REB: 2.4 | AST: 3.4 | STL: 1.3 |  BLK:0.1

• OVER 18.5 Points + Assists (-114 FanDuel)

My third best bet for today, I placed one unit on Minnesota Lynx guard Kayla McBride to record over 18.5 points and assists against the New York Liberty.

Given the Lynx recently played the Liberty, it's difficult to have a repeat performance. However, while Napheesa Collier is out, I'm putting my full trust in McBride.

In her last outing, the Liberty didn't have any answers for McBride as she erupted for 18 points on 6-12, and 4-7 3-point shooting. The game prior against the Liberty on July 30, McBride recorded 24 points, shooting 8-14 from the field, and 3-4 from deep.

There's no doubt McBride a slow start to the season, joining the team late, and she's been lights out since WNBA All-Star.

 WNBA Liberty vs Lynx Best Bet Pick and Prediction: Kayla McBride OVER 18.5 Points + Assists (-114 FanDuel)

In eight games since the break, she's putting up 15.9 points, shooting 47.1 percent from three! Plus, she's having her most productive month since May, averaging 16.8 points per game.

I do believe McBride can soar over this prop from a points standpoint alone. Averaging over four assists per game over the last four games, McBride has easily cleared this prop line in four of the last five games (22.6 points and assists).

• I'm taking Kayla McBride to record over 18.5 points and assists today. The Liberty give up sixth most points to guards, and McBride is averaging 16.5 points alone in six games without Napheesa Collier.