WNBA Best Bets For Today: Mercury vs Aces Picks & Predictions (August 21)

There are four games on the WNBA slate today, but in this article, you can find everything about the Mercury vs Aces matchup!

(Photo by David Becker/NBAE via Getty Images)

Tonight, the Phoenix Mercury (21-13, 10-7 away) will host the Las Vegas Aces (22-14, 13-5 home) in Vegas!

Not only does this matchup feature top MVP candidates in Alyssa Thomas and A'ja Wilson, but both teams are tied for the No. 4 seed. With a highly anticipated matchup ahead, either the Mercury or Aces could move up in the standings. Both teams are just half a game back of the New York Liberty and Atlanta Dream for the No.2 seed.

Set to meet for the fourth and final time this season, the Aces lead the regular season series 2-1. With that said, the books are expecting a fairly close matchup. Winners of eight straight games, the Aces are slim 1.5-point spread favorites.

The Mercury have impressed under first-year head coach Nate Tibbetts, and have won two consecutive games against the Golden State Valkyries and Seattle Storm. Underdogs for the first time all season against the Aces, the Mercury are 6-4 in their last 10 games.

WNBA: Mercury vs Aces BetMGM Betting Odds And Schedule For Thursday, August 21

If you are here to bet on the WNBA, specifically the Mercury vs Aces showdown, welcome!

Set to air on Amazon Prime Video, the matchup will begin at 10 p.m. ET at Michelob ULTRA Arena, located in Las Vegas, Nevada.

With less than a month remaining of the regular WNBA season, the stakes are high, and this is a crucial matchup as both teams fight for playoff spots.

Featuring two of the most elite players in the world in A'ja Wilson and Alyssa Thomas, tonight's matchup should be pure cinema.

Featured in this article are my three best player prop bets, picks, and predictions, for the Thursday, August 21 WNBA matchup featuring the Phoenix Mercury and Las Vegas Aces. Keeping my bank roll management in mind, I placed all my bets as separate picks.

Are you looking to bet on WNBA player props all season long? Here at Ballislife Bets, we've gathered a complete list of the best sports betting offers here. 

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WNBA Best Bets: Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces BetMGM Betting Odds For August 21

MONEYLINE

• PHOENIX MERCURY: +100
• LAS VEGAS ACES: -120

SPREAD

• PHOENIX MERCURY: +1.5 (-110)
• LAS VEGAS ACES: +110 (-110)

OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)

• OVER: 170.5 (-110)
• UNDER: 170.5 (-110)

2025 Regular Season H2H Matchups: Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces

• August 15, 2025: Aces 86, Mercury 83 (Las Vegas +4.5, over 167)
• June 29, 2025: Aces 84, Mercury 81 (Las Vegas +6, under 168.5)
• June 15, 2025: Mercury 76, Aces 70 (Phoenix -4.5, under 164)

Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces Injury Report

MERCURY

1. None

ACES

1. Cheyenne Parker-Tyus, F: OUT

*Odds are courtesy of BetMGM*

WNBA Best Bets For Mercury vs Aces (August 21)

• A'ja Wilson OVER 24.5 Points (-105 DraftKings)
• Alyssa Thomas OVER 23.5 Points + Assists (-122 FanDuel)
• Las Vegas Aces -1 (-108 DraftKings)

Player Prop Bet #1: A'ja Wilson

A'ja Wilson 2025 WNBA Stats

GP: 28 | PPG: 22.9 | FG: 48.9 % | FT: 85.4 % | 3PT : 31.8  % | REB: 10 | AST: 3.3 | STL: 1.6 |  BLK: 2.2

• OVER 24.5 Points (-105 DraftKings)

My first best bet for today, I placed one unit on Las Vegas Aces star A'ja Wilson to record over 24.5 points against the Phoenix Mercury.

This line is a but juiced at 24.5 points, however, how can I fade Wilson in such a crucial matchup? With eight games left in the regular season, every game counts. For MVP and for the Aces playoff seeding.

We need to seriously talk about A'ja Wilson here. Not only has she propelled the Aces to a eight game winning streak, she's been on an absolute tear. Putting up MVP numbers, she's recorded three straight 30+ point against the Atlanta Dream, Dallas Wings, and Phoenix Mercury. With 32 against the Dream, 34 against the Wings, Wilson erupted for an even points against Phoenix last Friday.

A'ja Wilson For WNBA MVP?

In the Aces 86-83 victory over Phoenix, it was Wilson who led the aces with 30 points and 16 rebounds. Scoring 20 points in the first half alone, Wilson had herself a double-double far before the start of the fourth quarter. In 34 minutes, she shot 8-16 from the field, and 14-15 from the free-throw line!

This is an average matchup for Wilson, who faces a Mercury team that allows the seventh most points to centers. With that said, they do allow the fourth most free-throw attempts per game (19.5), which may be in Wilson's favor.

Clearing this player prop betting line in two matchups against Phoenix, Wilson recorded 30 and 26 points. Plus, she's gone to the charity stripe a total of 26 times in two games! Logging decent minutes (34-35) under head coach Becky Hammon against the Mercury, Wilson's had decent shot volume (18 FGA) over their two matchups.

The Mercury have defensive juggernaut in Alyssa Thomas, and also Satou Sabally and Natasha Mack. Realistically, Wilson has already proven she can play through the Mercury.

Not to mention, Wilson has reestablished her outside game as of late, shooting 3-5 from beyond the arc over the last two games.

 WNBA Mercury vs Aces Best Bet Pick and Prediction: A'ja Wilson OVER 24.5 Points (-105 DraftKings)

Notorious for her elite mid range shot, Wilson is so much more than that. And the numbers don't lie. In August, she's been playing some of the best basketball of the season. Through nine games this month, Wilson is averaging 25 points, and shooting 48.1 percent from the field, and 46.2 percent from three! PLUS, she's putting up 8.3 FTA per game!

• I'm taking A'ja Wilson to record over 24.5 points today. It's a must win situation for the Aces, and the entire offense flows through A'ja. Soaring over this prop in six of the last seven games, Wilson averages 23.6 points per game at home this season. Expect a third of this prop bet to come from the free-throw line alone. 

Player Prop Bet #2: Alyssa Thomas

Alyssa Thomas 2025 WNBA Stats

GP: 29 | PPG: 16.1 | FG: 54.3 % | FT: 71  % | 3PT : 0 % | REB: 8.6 | AST: 9.0 | STL: 1.6 |  BLK: 0.5

• OVER 23.5 Points + Assists (-122 FanDuel)

My second best bet for today, I placed one unit on Phoenix Mercury star Alyssa Thomas to record over 23.5 points and assists against the Las Vegas Aces.

With Minnesota Lynx star Napheesa Collier suffering an ankle injury, Alyssa Thomas has emerged in MVP talks. Averaging nearly a double-double this season with 16.1 points and 9.0 assists, Thomas has having herself a career-year in her first season with the Mercury.

I am high on Thomas's assist line, which was set at 8.5.  In three games against the Aces, we've seen her record 13, 8, and 9 dimes against them. Over the last five games, Thomas is averaging 8.6 assists per game.

Alyssa Thomas For WNBA MVP?

The Mercury have plenty of talent, and AT is the WNBA's assist leader. It starts with Satou Sabally, and ends with DeWanna Bonner. This Mercury team can shoot, and they get a ton of production from role and bench players.

The Aces have improved on the defensive end over their winning streak, but let's face it, who can really stop Alyssa Thomas? In transition, coast-to-coast—she's one of the most elite in getting downhill. Now she get's an Aces team that allows the fifth most points to forwards.

The Aces upgraded their frontcourt with NaLyssa Smith, but lack ultra rim protection aside from A'ja Wilson. With that said, Thomas has tallied 14, 16, and 15 points alone in three games against the Aces this year.

 WNBA Mercury vs Aces Best Bet Pick and Prediction: Alyssa Thomas OVER 23.5 Points + Assists (-122 FanDuel)

Overall, Thomas isn't a high volume shooter. She's put up an average of 10.7 FGA per game, however, she's shooting at an extremely high clip (56.3 %) against Vegas. Plus, she's averaged 4.0 FTA against them this season.

• I'm taking Alyssa Thomas to record over 23.5 points and assists today. Soaring over this in three straight games against the Aces, she's shooting 67.1 percent from the restricted area. Given the Aces allow the fourth-highest shooting percentage in that area (64.9 %), I'm expecting Alyssa Thomas to be heavily involved tonight. 

Spread Bet: Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces

Mercury ATS Record: 18-16
Aces ATS Record: 17-19

• Aces -1 (-108 DraftKings)

My third best bet for today, I placed one unit on the Las Vegas Aces to cover the one point favorable spread against the Mercury.

I was going to take the moneyline, however, the spread presented better odds and value at -108. The Aces have been one of the most transformational teams, going from one of the most inconsistent to eight straight wins.

The Aces have been cruising, A'ja Wilson has been playing at an MVP level, and Becky Hammon has seen success bringing veteran Jewell Loyd off the bench.

Along with their win streak, Wilson is coming off her third straight 30+ game, and finished with 32-points, 12-rebounds, and five blocks against the Atlanta Dream. As long as Wilson is rolling, I'm taking the Aces.

Why The Aces Can Cover The Spread

Soaring in the MVP standings, the Aces are 10-1 when she scores 25 points or more. And over their eight game winning streak, the Aces are the top offensive team, ranking No.1 in offensive rating (115.4), scoring 89 points per game!

With impressive victories over the Dream, Mercury, Liberty, Storm, and Valkyries, the Aces boast an impressive +9.0 net rating over their stretch. With that, they are shooting 45.6 percent from the field, and hold the fourth-highest 3-point percentage (37.2 %) over that span.

Not to mention, the Aces hold the fourth best defensive rating (103.4). At one point, defense was their weakness.

Similar to the books, I am expecting a close game between these two teams. The Mercury are coming off two straight road victories over the Storm and Valkyries, and get another shot on the road.

 WNBA Mercury vs Aces Best Bet Pick and Prediction: Las Vegas Aces -1 (-108 DraftKings)

I do expect Alyssa Thomas to run the ship, and I do have some questions when it comes to consistency with this team.

Over the season, the Mercury have prided themselves as one of the most elite teams, however, have slipped offensively over the last five games.

• I'm going to lay the points with the Aces at home. They have momentum, and I'm going to bet they get their ninth straight win and move up in the standings. With a 13-5 record, the Aces are 8-10 ATS at home, however, they've won five straight home games.

Better yet, the Aces are much more of a complete team at home. They average nearly nine points higher (86.4 PPG) at home. Plus, they defeated the Mercury twice on the road this season.  For nearly plus money, I'm taking the Aces. Their defensive down the stretch has been outstanding, and who's going to stop A'ja Wilson?