2025 WNBA Finals Game 3 Best Bets Today: Aces vs Mercury Picks & Predictions (October 8)

Game 3 of the 2025 WNBA Finals is here, and there's a highly anticipated matchup ahead between the Aces and Mercury.

(Photo by Stephen Gosling/NBAE via Getty Images)

Today marks Game 3 of the WNBA Finals featuring the Las Vegas Aces (2-0) and the Phoenix Mercury (0-2). In the first-ever best-of-seven series, the Aces took the first two at home. The series will now shift to Phoenix for the next two matchups.

Outscoring the Mercury by 16 points in the first two games, the Aces rolled to a 91-78 victory in Game 2 over Phoenix on Sunday. With frustration mounting, Jackie Young dropped a historic 32 points on the Mercury, and A'ja Wilson erupted for 28 points and 14 rebounds. In addition, the Mercury live and die by the three, and shot just 5-28 (17.9%) from beyond the arc. Unable to sustain an offensive flow, Phoenix lost the battle on the rebounds and failed to get stops on the defensive end. A team that once ranked No. 1 in defensive rating in the playoffs, surrendered 91 points to the Aces!

No team wants to be down 0-2, and the Mercury have a chance to bounce back in front of the X-Factor in the Valley. Not only was Game 1 decided by one possession (89-86), but it was Alyssa Thomas who missed two crucial free throws with less than 25 seconds left. Now they get a chance to reset at home with two days off.

2025 WNBA Finals: Las Vegas Aces Take 2-0 Series Lead Over Phoenix Mercury

With Game 3 of the WNBA Finals quickly approaching, the Vegas are still the favorite among several sportsbooks to win the series. Currently, Las Vegas has -375 odds, or an 78.95 percent implied probability of winning the Finals.  The Mercury remain massive underdogs with +300 odds, or a 25 percent implied probability to win the series.

Featuring MVP winner and MVP front-runner A'ja Wilson and Alyssa Thomas, there is a ton of star power on both sides. For the Aces, Jackie Young, Wilson, Chelsea Gray, and Dana Evans have been lights out. For the Mercury, Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas, and Satou Sabally have led the way. The question remains: Can the bench step up for Phoenix?

Are you looking to bet on WNBA player props all season long? Here at Ballislife Bets, we've gathered a complete list of the best sports betting offers here. 

2025 WNBA Finals Game 3: Aces vs Mercury FanDuel Betting Odds And Schedule For Wednesday, October 8

If you're looking to bet on the WNBA Finals, welcome in!

Game 3 of the 2025 WNBA Finals is set to tip off at 8 p.m. ET, located at the Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, Arizona. As four-point favorites at home, the Mercury vs. Aces matchup will be broadcast on ESPN.

Let's take a look at my three best bets, player prop picks, and predictions for Game 3 of the WNBA Finals on Wednesday, October 8. A showdown between the Las Vegas Aces and Phoenix Mercury, I included a mix of popular player prop bets and total prediction for today's matchup.

Since it's the playoffs, bets become riskier as we get deeper into the Finals. Therefore, I placed all my bets as separate picks within FanDuel Sportsbook.

WNBA Finals Best Bets Game 3: Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury FanDuel Betting Odds For October 8

MONEYLINE

• LAS VEGAS ACES: +152
• PHOENIX MERCURY: -188

SPREAD

• LAS VEGAS ACES: -4 (-110)
• PHOENIX MERCURY: +4 (-110)

OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)

• OVER: 164 (-110)
• UNDER: 164 (-110)

2025 Regular Season H2H Matchups:  Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury

• August 21, 2025: Aces 83, Mercury 61 (Las Vegas -1.5, under 171.5)
• August 15, 2025: Aces 85, Mercury 83 (Las Vegas +1.5, over 167)
• June 29, 2025: Aces 84, Mercury 81 (Las Vegas +6, under 168.5)
• June 15, 2025: Mercury 76, Aces 70 (Phoenix -4.5, under 164)

 Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury Injury Report

ACES

1. None

MERCURY

1. None

*Odds are courtesy of FanDuel*

WNBA Best Bets For Aces vs Mercury (October 8)

• Alyssa Thomas OVER 14.5 Points (-125 FanDuel)
• Chelsea Gray OVER 6.5 Assists (-122 FanDuel)
• Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury OVER 164 Points (-110 FanDuel)

Player Prop Bet #1: Alyssa Thomas

Alyssa Thomas 2025 WNBA Playoff Stats

GP: 9 | PPG: 17.2 | FG: 49.3 % | FT: 61.8 % | 3PT: 0 % | REB: 8.3 | AST: 8.7 | STL: 1.9 | BLK: 0.4

• OVER 14.5 Points (-125 FanDuel)

My first best bet for today, I placed one unit on Phoenix Mercury star Alyssa Thomas to record over 14.5 points against the Aces.

Thomas has been a major contributor for Phoenix and recorded 10 points, six rebounds, five assists, and three steals in Game 2. In Game 1, she posted a stat line of 15 points, 10 rebounds, nine assists, and one block.

Scoring 10 points in 30 minutes, it was Satou Sabally and Kahleah Copper who led the way with 22 and 23 points each in Game 2. Thomas had a complete game, even struggling with personal fouls (4). However, she went just 5-9 from the field. Those nine field goal attempts mark the lowest of any playoff game for Thomas this season.

Why Alyssa Thomas Can Bring the Mercury Back To Life In Game 3

Down 0-2, the Mercury head back home, where Thomas averaged 15.6 points and shot 56.3 percent from the field in 19 regular-season home games. In the playoffs, she's been far more efficient in front of the home crowd. In four playoff games at home, she's putting up 19.5 points and 18 FGA.

A point forward, few players on the Aces' roster can stop Thomas, especially downhill or in transition.  If the Mercury wants to stay alive, the offense must flow through Thomas. Although the Mercury were defeated 89-86 in Game 1, Thomas scored 15 points in 38 minutes! It would have been 17 had she made those two clutch free throws down the stretch.

There's no doubt that Thomas's production affects winning. In five playoff wins, she's averaging 19.6 points per game, compared to 14.3 points per game in four playoff losses. Plus, she's coming off two days' rest, where she's put up 16.7 points per game in the postseason.

Final WNBA Finals Game 3 Aces vs Mercury best bet and prediction: Alyssa Thomas OVER 14.5 Points (-125 FanDuel)

Overall, Thomas was an MVP front-runner for a reason and has scored 15+ points in seven of nine playoff games against the New York Liberty, Minnesota Lynx, and Las Vegas Aces. Mind you, she put up multiple 20+ points against stingy Liberty and Lynx defenses.

Now she once again faces an Aces defense, which has given up the seventh most points to forwards this season. Collectively, she's shot 12-19 from the field in two Finals games.

• I'm taking Alyssa Thomas to record over 14.5 points today. In a must-win situation, she's putting up 17.2 points per game in the playoffs, and scored 10 points on zero free-throw attempts in the last match. Soaring over this prop in three of four regular-season matchups against the Aces, look for Thomas to be heavily involved today. 

Legendz Casino

4.4/5

Lock in Your WNBA Finals Picks at Legendz

• Social Sportsbook + Slots
• Hundreds of Vegas-style slots
• Live dealer casino games

Get up to 103 SC + 20,500 GC for FREE with Legendz!

Open Legendz Casino

Player Prop Bet #2: Chelsea Gray

Chelsea Gray 2025 WNBA Playoff Stats

GP: 10 | PPG: 10.5 | FG: 43.7 % | FT: 83.3 % | 3PT: 43.8 % | REB: 3.5 | AST: 7.8 | STL: 2.2 |  BLK: 1.0

• OVER 6.5 Assists (-122 FanDuel)

My second-best bet for today, I placed one unit on Las Vegas Aces guard Chelsea Gray to record over 6.5 assists in Game 3 of the WNBA Finals.

They don't call Gray the "Point Gawd" for nothing. Shall I bring up the argument that Chelsea Gray remains one of the most elite point guards in the WNBA?

Finals and playoffs are a different time, and Gray has reverted to her old ways (circa the 2022 Finals) against the Mercury and nearly recorded a triple-double in Game 2, posting a 15-point, eight-rebound, and 10-assist stat line. A two-way menace, she added three stocks and blocks a piece.

Is Chelsea Gray The Best Point Guard In The WNBA?

With back-to-back 10-assist performances, Gray has matched her playoff career-best with nine assists per 40 minutes. In 10 playoff games, she's averaged a 31.8 assist percentage and passed Sue Bird for third on the WNBA Playoffs assists leaderboard.

At 32 years old, Gray has an incredible IQ and remains one of the premier facilitators in the WNBA. Whether it's a no-look or bounce pass, Gray can make the touchdown go-ahead plays in transition with two hands.

Overall, we've seen Gray take control of the clipboard in huddles, and the offense has very much flowed through her. I expect a defensive shift for the Mercury, and I'm expecting Gray to continue leading the offense.

Erupting for 20 dimes in the last two games, Gray has posted a 9+ assist stat line in three of the previous four games against Phoenix. Plus, the Mercury allowed the fifth most assists to guards all season.

Final WNBA Finals Game 3 Aces vs Mercury best bet and prediction: Chelsea Gray OVER 6.5 Assists (-122 FanDuel)

This player prop line is a tad low, especially since Gray is averaging 7.8 assists in the playoffs. There is a chance the momentum shifts since they are on the road. However, Gray is averaging more assists on the road (8.0) than at home (7.7) in the playoffs.

• I'm taking Chelsey Gray to record over 6.5 assists today. At one point in the season, the Aces could barely stay above .500, and A'ja Wilson was averaging more assists than Gray. The entire team shifted following their 16-game win streak to end the season. There's truly no one I'd rather trust in the playoffs. 

Total Bet: Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury

• Aces vs Mercury OVER 164 Points (-110 FanDuel)

My third-best bet for Wednesday, I placed one unit on Game 3 of the WNBA Finals to tally over 164 points.

Although the Aces and Mercury rank in the top five in the playoffs in terms of defensive rating, it's been an offensive shootout so far.

Game 1 (86-83) soared over 161.5 points at 175 total points. Game 2 (91-78) cleared over 164 points for 169 total points. Through the finals, the Aces average 90 points per game, while the Mercury put up 80.5 points per game (170.5 points combined).

The Mercury have struggled to defend the Aces, given they're averaging 90 points in the Finals. Plus, Las Vegas has scored 84+ points in five straight games against the Mercury. Led by Jackie Young and A'ja Wilson, Phoenix has even struggled to contain bench players such as Dana Evans and Jewell Loyd.

Let's face it, the Aces are shooting 47.5 percent through two games, and haven't shot below 33 percent from three in the Finals. In Game 1, the Mercury shot 47 percent from the field and 38.9 percent from three. While they live and die by the three, the Mercury are putting up the second-most 3-pointers in the playoffs (26.6).

Final WNBA Finals Game 3 Aces vs Mercury best bet and prediction: Aces vs Mercury OVER 164 Points (-110 FanDuel)

The over is 2-0 so far, and if the Mercury get their three-point shot back, I'm expecting the over to hit once again. Plus, we are talking about a Phoenix team that ranks No.2 in pace in the playoffs. Given that two of their four regular-season matchups have cleared 164 points, I'm confident in this number tonight. Plus, Satou Sabally is active after sustaining an ankle injury in Game 2.

• I'm taking the over for Game 3 tonight. There have been times when both teams were going shot-for-shot, and Phoenix is shooting 43.8 percent from the floor in this series. This is where the series shifts home crowd-wise. In their last home game against the Lynx, the total points scored exceeded 167.