2025 WNBA Finals Game 4 Best Bets Today: Aces vs Mercury Picks & Predictions (October 10)

Game 4 of the 2025 WNBA Finals is here, and there's a highly anticipated matchup ahead between the Aces and Mercury!

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Alyssa Thomas and the Phoenix Mercury (0-3, 0-1 home) will host A'ja Wilson and the Las Vegas Aces (3-0, 1-0 away) today.

It's do-or-die for the Mercury, who have their backs against a wall. Facing elimination, they get a chance to keep the series alive.

Unfortunately, the Mercury will be without star Satou Sabally, who has officially been ruled out for tonight's contest with a concussion.  The injury occurred in the fourth quarter when Sabally collided with Kiersten Bell's leg. From there, she was knocked down by Jackie Young on the rebound attempt.

Phoenix's Game 3 leading scorer, replacing Sabally, will be a tall task. Through the first three games of the series, she's averaged 21.7 points and six rebounds. While losing Sabally is a massive loss for Phoenix, head coach Nate Tibbetts is expected to replace her with DeWanna Bonner or Sami Whitcomb in the starting lineup. Phoenix is a heavy 3-point shooting team and lives and dies beyond the arc. Both Bonner and Whitcomb are flamethrowers from 3-point range.

2025 WNBA Finals: Las Vegas Aces Take 3-0 Series Lead Over Phoenix Mercury, Can Sweep Tonight

While the Aces are up 3-0 in the Finals, three games have been decided by three points or less. The Mercury did erase a 17-point deficit in Game 3. However, they suffered a heartbreaking 90-88 loss after A'ja Wilson knocked down an iconic shot with .3 seconds left.

So far, this has been a relatively high-scoring series, and the books are expecting a similar outcome with the total listed at 163.5 points. Despite Sabally's injury, Game 4 is anticipated to be a closer matchup. Currently, the Aces are 3-point spread and -150 moneyline favorites on the road.

According to Ballislife's sports betting calculator, the Aces have a 97.8 percent chance (-4500) to win the series. The Mercury has just a 5.8 percent chance (+1600) to win the 2o25 Finals.

Who will step up for both teams tonight? For Las Vegas, the constant has been A'ja Wilson. However, various players such as Jewell Loyd, Dana Evans, Jackie Young, and Chelsea Gray have stepped up in much-needed times.

For the Mercury, DeWanna Bonner exploded off the bench in Game 3 for 25 points. While Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Copper combined for 31 points last game, look for Phoenix to rely on those three players heavily.

Looking for its third title in four years, will the Aces sweep the Mercury today? If so, they would join the Houston Comets as the only two franchises to win three championships in a four-year span.

Are you looking to bet on WNBA player props all season long? Here at Ballislife Bets, we've gathered a complete list of the best sports betting offers here. 

2025 WNBA Finals Game 4: Aces vs Mercury FanDuel Betting Odds And Schedule For Friday, October 10

MONEYLINE

• LAS VEGAS ACES: -150
• PHOENIX MERCURY: +122

SPREAD

• LAS VEGAS ACES: -3 (-112)
• PHOENIX MERCURY: +3 (-108)

OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)

• OVER: 163.5 (-108)
• UNDER: 163.5 (-112)

2025 WNBA Finals H2H Matchups:  Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury

• October 8, 2025: Aces 90, Mercury 88 (Las Vegas +4.5, over 163.5)
• October 5, 2025: Aces 91, Mercury 78 (Las Vegas -3, over 164)
• October 3, 2025: Aces 89, Mercury 86 (Phoenix +3.5, over 161.5)

 Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury Injury Report

ACES

1. None

MERCURY

1. Satou Sabally, Forward: OUT (Concussion)

*Odds are courtesy of FanDuel*

WNBA Best Bets For Aces vs Mercury (October 10)

• A'ja Wilson OVER 25.5 Points (-114 FanDuel)
• Kahleah Copper OVER 18.5 Points (-122 FanDuel)
• Alyssa Thomas OVER 25.5 Points + Assists (-108 FanDuel)

Player Prop Bet #1: A'ja Wilson

A'ja Wilson 2025 WNBA Playoff Stats

GP: 11 | PPG: 26.5 | FG: 49.1 % | FT: 75.9 % | 3PT: 46.2 % | REB: 10.1 | AST: 3.3 | STL: 2.1 | BLK: 2.5

• OVER 25.5 Points (-114 FanDuel)

My first bet for Game 4, I placed one unit on Las Vegas Aces star A'ja Wilson to record over 25.5 points today.

A'ja Wilson is a four-time MVP for a reason. And can we talk about her last-second shot to win Game 3? No. 22 with the game-ending shot with 2.2 seconds on the clock. It's fate, you truly can't make up the storyline.

Wilson has been elite, averaging 27.7 points, 12.7 rebounds, four assists, and 1.7 blocks in the 2025 Finals. No matter what coverage Phoenix has thrown at her, Wilson has been unstoppable. As much as I've enjoyed the Alyssa Thomas vs A'ja Wilson matchup, Wilson has cruised through each game.

Wilson is the overwhelming favorite to win Finals MVP at -4000 odds (97.6 % chance), and it's easy to see why. Whether guarded by Thomas or Sabally, Wilson was coasting over DeWanna Bonner in their last matchup.

A'ja Wilson Is Favored To Win The 2025 WNBA Finals MVP

In the Aces Game 89-86 Game 1 victory, Wilson delivered 21 points on 7-16 shooting. While she struggled some, it was the Dana Evans show. Both Evans and Jewell Loyd combined for 39 points off the bench that game for head coach Becky Hammon.

It was an entirely different story for Wilson, who scored 28 of the Aces' 91 points in Game 2. Shooting 13-23 from the field, it was the Jackie Young show (32 points). Even so, the Mercury's positionless scheme has been proven costly, along with failed defensive coverages.

In Game 3, Wilson once again led the Aces with 34 points in the 90-88 victory. Aforementioned, it was Wilson who hit the iconic game-winning shot and finished 11-20 from the free-throw line.

While it can be anyone's night, it starts and ends with A'ja Wilson. While this is a popular bet, it's the right one.  Am I really going to fade the WNBA MVP in a possible sweep scenario? Overall, she's soared over this player prop line in two of three Finals games.

Final WNBA Finals Game 4 Aces vs Mercury best bet and prediction: A'ja Wilson OVER 25.5 Points (-114 FanDuel)

Wilson is shooting 52.5 percent from the field, averaging 36.1 minutes and 19.7 field goal attempts in the Finals. While the Mercury relied on comebacks and defense all season, the tides have turned. They may have allowed the second fewest points to centers, but we can't rely on that stat.

Sure, 25.5 points may seem a bit steep; however, Wilson has cleared this line in four of the last five games, dating back to the semifinals series against the Indiana Fever.

• I'm taking A'ja Wilson to score over 25.5 points today. She recorded the most points in a single postseason. Posting a 34 and 14 performance, we are witnessing history in the making. 

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Player Prop Bet #1: Kahleah Copper

Kahleah Copper 2025 WNBA Playoff Stats

GP: 10 | PPG: 16.6 | FG: 45.3 % | FT: 92.3 | 3PT: 34 % | REB: 3.2 | AST: 0.8 | STL: 0.4 | BLK: 0.2

• OVER 18.5 Points (-122 FanDuel)

My second-best bet for today, I placed one unit on Phoenix Mercury star Kahleah Copper to record over 18.5 points in Game 4 of the Finals.

While folks are rightfully talking about Alyssa Thomas and Satou Sabally, Kahleah Copper has also been a crucial part of this team's success. Plus, let's not forget she's a WNBA Champion with the Chicago Sky. She's performed well in the most significant moments, especially in the 2024 USA Olympics. In the Gold Medal 67-66 victory over France, it was Copper who delivered a clutch 12 points, five rebounds, and two steals off the bench.

Why Kahleah Copper Is The Game 4 X-Factor For Phoenix

Her impact on the USA team was profound, and her surge in the second half helped propel the USA to Gold.

I'm now betting on Copper to score over 18.5 points in an elimination game. While she's averaged 16.6 points in the playoffs, she's been sensational in the Finals.

In the series, she's averaged 20.3 points against the Aces. Shooting 50 percent from the field and 40.9 percent from beyond the arc, Copper recorded 21 points in Game 1, 23 points in Game 2, and 17 points in Game 3. Logging an average of 34.1 minutes for Nate Tibbetts, there's no quit in Copper.

Given Sabally is out for Game 4, I'm expecting an increase in production for both Copper and Thomas tonight. With Sabally, she is averaging over 20 points and 14.7 field goal attempts per game. A true 3-level threat, I'm anticipating that will increase, especially her usage percentage (21.7 %).

Final WNBA Finals Game 4 Aces vs Mercury best bet and prediction: Kahleah Copper OVER 18.5 Points (-122 FanDuel)

Overall, Copper is putting up 1.12 points per scoring attempt, which is the most since the 2021 playoffs (where she won a championship with the Sky. Moreover, she's posting a 51.8 percent effective field goal rate and a 35.8 percent 3-point rate.

• I'm taking Kahleah Copper to score over 18.5 points today. With the season on the line, the Mercury must utilize its biggest stars with home court advantage tonight. She put up a career-high 17.3 points in the playoffs. If the Mercury can pull off a comeback, Copper has +6000 odds to win Finals MVP.

Player Prop Bet #1: Alyssa Thomas

Alyssa Thomas 2025 WNBA Playoff Stats

GP: 10 | PPG: 16.9 | FG: 49 % | FT: 62.5 % | 3PT: 0 % | REB: 8.7 | AST: 8.7 | STL: 1.9 | BLK: 0.4

• OVER 25.5 Points + Assists (-108 FanDuel)

My third-best bet for Game 4, I placed one unit on Phoenix Mercury star Alyssa Thomas to record over 25.5 points and assists today.

Alyssa Thomas isn't new to the Finals or elimination games. In fact, her past experience shaped her for his moment. Thomas, along with Bonner, was a part of the Connecticut Sun's 2022 finals run against the Las Vegas Aces. Defeated 3-1, Thomas finds herself in a similar place.

Nearly posting a triple-double in two of three Finals games, how much more can Thomas give? She's coming off a 14-point, 12-rebound, nine-assist, and two-steal Game 3 performance. Logging an average of 35.7 minutes in the Finals, she's also compiled an impressive stat line of 13 points, 9.3 rebounds, 7.7 assists, and 1.7 steals.

Why Alyssa Thomas Can Soar Over This Player Prop Line Today

Thomas isn't a high-volume scorer—she rather impacts the box score in multiple ways. In Game 1, she scored 15 points on 7-10 field goal shooting. In Game 2, she put up 10 points in just 30 minutes in the Aces' 91-78 victory over the Mercury. Last game, Thomas finished with 14 points, on 5-11 field goal shooting, and 4-6 from the charity stripe.

There's been a trend throughout the series, and it's been alarming. While Thomas has started out strong, she's disappeared in the second half of games. Scoring just 10 second-half points through the first three games, Thomas was limited to two and three second-half points in Games 2 and 3.

This is something to keep an eye on, especially now that Satou Sabally has been ruled out for Game 4 with a concussion.

Given Thomas has recorded nine assists in two of three games, a majority of this player prop can come from that alone. Plus, Thomas has scored 14 and 15 points in Game 1 and Game 3. Overall, she's put up 23 assists in the Finals.

Final WNBA Finals Game 4 Aces vs Mercury best bet and prediction: Alyssa Thomas OVER 25.5 Points + Assists (-108 FanDuel)

The offense starts and ends with Thomas, and without Sabally, the Mercury will need her to fill that void. I expect her shot volume to increase, as Thomas is averaging just 10 field goal attempts per game. Compare that against the Lynx, where she averaged 17 field goal attempts per game.

• I'm taking Alyssa Thomas to record over 25.5 points and assists today. She's nicknamed "the engine" for a reason. There's no quit in Thomas—look for her to lay it all on the table in a must-win Game 4.